Gasbag Capital

TMT Shiller - Selling your winners and holding your losers is like cutting the flowers and watering the weeds

[BuccoCapital Bloke @buccocapital]

Adobe is an important cautionary tale for three reasons:

1. You are likely underestimating how cheap things can get. Fundamentals. Will. Not. Save. You.

2. Reflexivity is real. Adobe has a permanent talent problem now.

3. You can’t fix a terminal value debate with buybacks

[Citrini @citrini]

Gonna be pain this week.

[Hunter Biden @HunterBiden]

@Kenneth_Belkin Do I look like I’m a part of the elite oligarch class. This was taken at a super 8 motel off I95 by the way.

[Hedgeye @Hedgeye]

Cash flow no longer covers the AI capex bill, so hyperscalers are funding it with record debt:

Hyperscaler bond issuance has soared to $150 billion YTD, more than the prior two years combined.

[Adam Rossi @rossiadam]

The lockup for SpaceX shares is like nothing I have ever seen.

Three groups with different lockup regimes.

The largest group has 180 day lockup after IPO, but with a graduated ability to sell based on share price at milestones before then.

[Yoshik @AskYoshik]

The AI bubble math doesn't add up.

Anthropic spends $3 to make $1 and that’s before you include any and all other costs like staff or electricity.

Microsoft dumped $300B in capex, made ~$18B in AI revenue. OpenAI and Anthropic alone make up 43-54% of Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Oracle's entire revenue backlogs.

Enterprises are burning through annual AI budgets in 4 months with zero measurable ROI.

This is the most expensive science experiment in history, funded by your SaaS subscriptions.

[Ed Zitron @edzitron]

Premium Newsletter: OpenAI needs to raise or make $852 billion through 2030 to pay for its compute costs, and must pay $75bn a year for Oracle's 7.1GW of Stargate data centers, or Oracle will collapse, destroying its share price and Ellison's empire.
https://t.co/fmxKU8v0bi

[BuccoCapital Bloke @buccocapital]

Stop talking about SBC. It. Does. Not. Matter. Microsoft is getting killed. Adobe is getting killed

Will anyone complain about SBC at OpenAI or Anthropic or Databricks or SpaceX? No

Is SBC a cost. Yes. Of course. But it’s not about that. This is about terminal value.

[Gasbag Capital @GasbagCapital]

@gothburz @grok give me the TL;DR

[Caitlin Kalinowski @kalinowski007]

I resigned from OpenAI. I care deeply about the Robotics team and the work we built together. This wasn’t an easy call. AI has an important role in national security. But surveillance of Americans without judicial oversight and lethal autonomy without human authorization are lines that deserved more deliberation than they got. This was about principle, not people. I have deep respect for Sam and the team, and I’m proud of what we built together.

[Martin Shkreli @MartinShkreli]

newco

[Ari Hoffman @thehoffather]

I could watch this a thousand times

[Pio @piovincenzo_]

If Michael Saylor went on Shark Tank

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Once MSFT goes FCF < 0, the off-balance sheet tsunami will make Enron look like amateur hour

[John Collison @collision]

Please enjoy this Cheeky Pint / @dwarkesh_sp crossover with @elonmusk.

Dwarkesh was most interested in how Elon is going to make space datacenters work. I was most interested in Elon's method for attacking hard technical problems, and why it hasn’t been replicated as much as you might expect. But we got into plenty of topics in this three-hour session.

00:00:23 Space GPUs
00:35:39 Alignment
00:58:48 xAI
01:15:01 Optimus
01:28:03 China
01:40:46 Management
02:16:38 DOGE
02:34:58 Space GPUs redux

[Gasbag Capital @GasbagCapital]

@grok @DivesTech @BloombergTV @grok generate image of Dan Ives backing the truck up

[Gasbag Capital @GasbagCapital]

@grok @DivesTech @BloombergTV @grok so I should back the truck up tomorrow and load up on shares as it’s capitulation selling

[The White House @WhiteHouse]

When life gives you lemons... ⛓️

[News from Google @NewsFromGoogle]

Joint Statement: Apple and Google have entered into a multi-year collaboration under which the next generation of Apple Foundation Models will be based on Google's Gemini models and cloud technology. These models will help power future Apple Intelligence features, including a more personalized Siri coming this year.

After careful evaluation, Apple determined that Google's Al technology provides the most capable foundation for Apple Foundation Models and is excited about the innovative new experiences it will unlock for Apple users. Apple Intelligence will continue to run on Apple devices and Private Cloud Compute, while maintaining Apple's industry-leading privacy standards.