GAURAV BHOSALE

Research Analyst / Ex. S&P Global / Tweets are only for personal views.

[GAURAV BHOSALE @GauravB_7]

1/ From Equities to Ethereum: A Beginner’s Deep Dive

Recently, I’ve started exploring a space I honestly knew very little about: the crypto market. Approaching this as a complete beginner, but armed with an equity research mindset, has been a surprisingly eye-opening exercise.

[GAURAV BHOSALE @GauravB_7]

Two Nifty companies reported today. Both grew sales at their fastest pace in a while. Both stocks fell anyway.

Suzlon's revenue jumped 22% this quarter on record wind-turbine deliveries. The stock still fell almost 10%. Here's why: its EBITDA — what's left after running costs, before interest, tax and depreciation — barely moved. Costs grew just as fast as sales did. So the margin fell from 19% to under 16%, and a 22% bigger business produced a 6% smaller profit.

HUL's version: revenue grew 10%, its fastest pace in three years, but profit fell 3% — mostly a one-off tax credit last year that isn't repeating. The underlying business is healthier than the headline suggests. The market didn't wait to work that out; the stock fell over 5% anyway.

Same lesson twice today: the sales number means nothing until you see what it cost to get it.

[GAURAV BHOSALE @GauravB_7]

Following up on yesterday's oil post: Brent's kept falling, now $85-86 versus under $90 at Monday's close. The rupee's strengthened three sessions straight on the back of it. West Asia de-escalation still doing what it did Monday — just more of it.

[GAURAV BHOSALE @GauravB_7]

Oil fell about 7% today and the Indian market jumped. Worth understanding the machinery once, because this link comes up constantly.

India makes very little of its own oil. It buys about 88% of what it uses from other countries — close to 5 million barrels every single day — and pays for all of it in US dollars.

So the oil price isn't just a petrol-pump number here. It sets how many dollars leave the country, which sets how much pressure the rupee is under, which feeds into how fast prices rise.

The RBI's own rule of thumb: every $10 the barrel falls and stays fallen trims India's yearly import bill by roughly $14-15 billion, and narrows the current account gap — the shortfall between the dollars India spends abroad and the dollars it earns — by about a third of a percent of the whole economy.

Oil's dropped about $13 in a week. On that rule, if it holds, that's close to $18 billion the country doesn't have to spend. The "if it holds" is doing a lot of work, though — this exact barrel was a serious worry seven days ago.🛢️🛢️

[GAURAV BHOSALE @GauravB_7]

Nifty closed at 23,985 today, down just 10 points. Almost nothing happened, on the surface.

In Seoul, a lot happened.

1) South Korea's Kospi crashed nearly 11% today — its worst day since March. Trading was halted for 20 minutes when the index fell more than 8%, the eighth time that's happened in Korea this year.
Samsung and SK Hynix now make up roughly half the Kospi's total weight, up from about a quarter a year ago. Both make memory chips that go into AI data centres. Investors worldwide got spooked that big tech companies might slow down AI spending, and chip stocks everywhere got sold off. Samsung fell 13%, SK Hynix nearly 15%. With half the index sitting in two names, that was enough to take the whole market down with it.

2) Japan's Nikkei fell almost 4% on the same story, dragged by its own chip stocks — Kioxia alone lost 18% in a day.

3) The part that doesn't fit the doom headline: Nifty IT went the other way. Up over 3% today, its third straight day of gains, now up about 13% in a month.
Worth sitting with why. Samsung and SK Hynix physically build the hardware that goes into AI infrastructure — when investors worry AI spending might slow, that hits them directly, they're the ones who'd sell fewer chips. Indian IT companies build no hardware at all. They sell services — helping banks, retailers and manufacturers actually use AI. So when the "we build AI infrastructure" trade gets punished, some money rotates into the "we help you use it" trade instead. Jefferies said as much today, upgrading Indian IT to neutral from underweight and pointing to exactly this rotation, plus valuations that look cheap after the sector's 22% fall this year.
One thing I won't smooth over: the usual explanation for IT's rally has been a weak rupee helping export margins. The rupee's actually strengthened three sessions straight. That story's getting thinner just as the rally keeps going — which makes me trust the rotation explanation more than the currency one.

4) HUL's results were a genuine mixed bag. Revenue grew 10%, its fastest pace in over three years, with underlying volume growth of 5%. Profit fell 3% anyway, mostly because last year's quarter had a one-off tax credit that isn't repeating. The stock still fell over 5% — the market cared more about the profit miss than the strong sales line.

5) Suzlon told the same story from the other direction. Revenue grew 22%, record wind-turbine deliveries. Profit fell 6% because margins nearly halved. Stock dropped almost 10%. More on why in the next post.
6) L&T's board meets today too, but results hadn't landed by the time this went out. Worth watching once the filing drops.

7) Closing numbers: Sensex 76,765.92 (-70 pts), Nifty 23,985.35 (-10.6). Brent around $85-86, still sliding from last week's spike above $100. Rupee strengthened for a third straight session. FMCG, PSU banks and chemicals were the drag; IT was the only real support today.
#Nifty50 #sensex #stockmarkets

[Advait Arora @WealthEnrich]

Promoter buying is always interesting. FII buying is interesting. But when promoters, FIIs and DIIs have all increased their holdings over three years and the business is also growing, it deserves a closer look.
I ran a few basic filters:
Market cap between ₹500 crore and ₹50,000 crore , Promoter pledging below 2%, ROCE above 10% & 3 year sales & profit growth above 5% & guess what ?
Only 18 companies cleared the screen.

Here they are with their key data:
1. Escorts Kubota
CMP ₹2,948.95 | Market Cap ₹32,992 crore | P/E 15.5x | ROCE 13.9%
3-year sales & profit growth: 11.0%, 46.6%
Promoters ⬆️ 0.40%
FIIs ⬆️ 0.75%

DIIs ⬆️ 0.79%

Stock is down nearly 15% in one year, yet all three groups have added. Valuation looks reasonable. Next trigger has to come from better revenue growth and ROCE.

2. Minda Corporation
CMP ₹698.10 | Market Cap ₹16,690 crore | P/E 46.2x | ROCE 12.8%

3-year growth: 12.9% sales, 8.3% profit

Promoters ⬆️ 0.11%

FIIs ⬆️ 3.56%
DIIs ⬆️ 5.99%
Institutional buying is strong, especially from DIIs. At 46x earnings the valuation already runs ahead of recent growth.

3. KSB
CMP ₹878.45 | Market Cap ₹15,288 crore | P/E 55.6x | ROCE 24.7%

3-year growth: 14% sales, 17% profit

Promoters ⬆️ 3.11%

FIIs ⬆️ 0.67%

DIIs ⬆️ 1.48%

Strong ROCE and clear promoter accumulation. The issue is valuation — 55x needs much faster growth than what the company has delivered so far.

4. Welspun Enterprises
CMP ₹605.60 | Market Cap ₹8,382 crore | P/E 21.4x | ROCE 16.8%
3-year growth: 9.4% sales, 13.1% profit
Promoters ⬆️ 1.60%

FIIs ⬆️ 0.19%

DIIs ⬆️ 6.71%

Sharp rise in DII holding stands out. Valuation is not expensive, but growth has been only moderate. Execution on infrastructure and water projects will matter more than the screen.

5. Indiabulls
CMP ₹31.25 | Market Cap ₹7,280 crore | P/E 15x | ROCE 16.2%
3-year growth: 1,864% sales, 50% profit

Promoters ⬆️ 5.45%
FIIs ⬆️ 5.42%
DIIs ⬆️ 0.11%
Sales growth number is heavily distorted by a low base or change in business. Promoter and FII accumulation is large, but the raw numbers need much deeper checking.

6. Ashapura Minechem
CMP ₹711 | Market Cap ₹6,792 crore | P/E 16.7x | ROCE 20.7%
3-year growth: 42% sales, 50.6% profit

Promoters ⬆️ 2.70%

FIIs ⬆️ 2.13%

DIIs ⬆️ 0.26%

One of the cleaner combinations here — good growth, ROCE above 20%, moderate valuation and meaningful promoter buying. Main question is how much of this is cyclical.

7. Suprajit Engineering
CMP ₹491.85 | Market Cap ₹6,747 crore | P/E 36x | ROCE 16%
3-year growth: 11.6% sales, 7.1% profit

Promoters ⬆️ 0.63%

FIIs ⬆️ 1.43%

DIIs ⬆️ 1.11%

All three groups have added, but profit growth stays modest. At 36x the company needs stronger delivery from global operations and new products.

8. RPG Life Sciences
CMP ₹2,946.70 | Market Cap ₹4,874 crore | P/E 44.4x | ROCE 25.7%

3-year growth: 11.3% sales, 17.2% profit
Promoters ⬆️ 0.14%
FIIs ⬆️ 0.62%
DIIs ⬆️ 8.41%

8.4% rise in DII holding is one of the biggest ownership shifts on the list. Business quality and ROCE look good, but valuation already prices in a lot of that quality.

9. SG Finserve
CMP ₹687.80 | Market Cap ₹4,532 crore | P/E 28.9x | ROCE 9.3%

3-year growth: 100.4% sales, 90.7% profit

Promoters ⬆️ 7.57%

FIIs ⬆️ 0.44%

DIIs ⬆️ 1.24%
Promoters have increased holding sharply and growth has been rapid. Operating history in the current form is short : asset quality and funding costs need close tracking.

10. SEAMEC
CMP ₹1,421.65 | Market Cap ₹3,615 crore | P/E 14.4x | ROCE 20%
3-year growth: 29.6% sales, 106.3% profit

Promoters ⬆️ 0.68%

FIIs ⬆️ 3.28%

DIIs ⬆️ 4.39%

Strong numerical combination: profit growth above 100%, ROCE near 20%, moderate valuation and solid institutional accumulation. Offshore services earnings can be cyclical and contract-driven, so caution is needed.

11. Spectrum Electrical Industries
CMP ₹2,205.55 | Market Cap ₹3,466 crore | P/E 78x | ROCE 16.8%
3-year growth: 27.6% sales, 73.9% profit
Promoters ⬆️ 1.27%
FIIs ⬆️ 3.63%

DIIs ⬆️ 0.29%

Growth has been strong and FIIs have added meaningfully. At 78x earnings there is almost no room for a normal quarter or any execution miss.

12. Kwality Pharmaceuticals
CMP ₹2,745.45 | Market Cap ₹2,849 crore | P/E 41.9x | ROCE 24.3%

3-year growth: 26.1% sales, 29.1% profit

Promoters ⬆️ 0.12%

FIIs ⬆️ 3.13%
DIIs ⬆️ 0.55%
Healthy growth and ROCE, plus rising FII ownership. Valuation is demanding — future returns depend on sustaining growth above 25%.

13. K.P. Energy
CMP ₹306 | Market Cap ₹2,075 crore | P/E 11.4x | ROCE 39.2%

3-year growth: 50.7% sales, 61.7% profit

Promoters ⬆️ 0.51%

FIIs ⬆️ 0.34%

DIIs ⬆️ 1.03%

Strongest headline combination on the list: fast growth, nearly 40% ROCE and low P/E. The only real question is whether these numbers can hold through the renewable-energy cycle.

14. SKM Egg Products Export
CMP ₹321.90 | Market Cap ₹1,695 crore | P/E 16.3x | ROCE 30%
3-year growth: 5.1% sales, 11% profit
Promoters ⬆️ 1.91%

FIIs ⬆️ 0.92%

DIIs ⬆️ 0.21%

Excellent ROCE and reasonable valuation. Revenue growth has been slow and earnings can swing with raw-material prices and export demand.

15. IZMO
CMP ₹1,093 | Market Cap ₹1,635 crore | P/E 34.4x | ROCE 12.6%

3-year growth: 22.8% sales, 33.4% profit

Promoters ⬆️ 6.23%
FIIs ⬆️ 1.92%
DIIs ⬆️ 0.52%
6.2% rise in promoter holding is hard to ignore. Growth has been strong, but valuation and modest ROCE mean the quality of earnings and cash flows needs examination.

16. Associated Alcohols & Breweries
CMP ₹790 | Market Cap ₹1,586 crore | P/E 19.1x | ROCE 18%

3-year growth: 13.3% sales, 28.2% profit

Promoters ⬆️ 3.90%

FIIs ⬆️ 0.13%

DIIs ⬆️ 1.26%

Promoter accumulation, decent profit growth and reasonable valuation form a fair combination. Stock is down around 25% in one year — market seems to be questioning the near-term outlook.

17. Lincoln Pharmaceuticals
CMP ₹579.50 | Market Cap ₹1,161 crore | P/E 13.2x | ROCE 16.3%
3-year growth: 9.6% sales, 6.6% profit

Promoters ⬆️ 1.11%

FIIs ⬆️ 2.86%

DIIs ⬆️ 0.27%

Low valuation and rising institutional ownership. Sales and profit growth remain weak, so clear earnings acceleration is needed for any meaningful re-rating.

18. Fedders Holding
CMP ₹44.11 | Market Cap ₹888 crore | P/E 11.3x | ROCE 11.2%

3-year growth: 37.7% sales, 61.7% profit
Promoters ⬆️ 5.77%
FIIs ⬆️ 0.20%
DIIs ⬆️ 0.17%

Promoters have increased holding significantly and reported growth looks attractive at a low multiple. Small size, weak cash-flow conversion and relatively low ROCE make this a higher-risk name that needs deeper study.

Simple point: when promoters, FIIs and DIIs are all buying, it is worth paying attention. Ownership changes only give a clue. They cannot replace actual business analysis.

[GAURAV BHOSALE @GauravB_7]

Oil fell about 7% today and the Indian market jumped. Worth understanding the machinery once, because this link comes up constantly.

India makes very little of its own oil. It buys about 88% of what it uses from other countries — close to 5 million barrels every single day — and pays for all of it in US dollars.

So the oil price isn't just a petrol-pump number here. It sets how many dollars leave the country, which sets how much pressure the rupee is under, which feeds into how fast prices rise.

The RBI's own rule of thumb: every $10 the barrel falls and stays fallen trims India's yearly import bill by roughly $14-15 billion, and narrows the current account gap — the shortfall between the dollars India spends abroad and the dollars it earns — by about a third of a percent of the whole economy.

Oil's dropped about $13 in a week. On that rule, if it holds, that's close to $18 billion the country doesn't have to spend. The "if it holds" is doing a lot of work, though — this exact barrel was a serious worry seven days ago.🛢️🛢️

[GAURAV BHOSALE @GauravB_7]

Nifty ended the day just short of 24,000, up 0.96%. It's the first green day after five red ones — and almost the whole turn comes down to one number falling: the price of oil. Last week's slide had a few causes, a weak HDFC Bank result and Infosys trimming its outlook among them, but oil was the one that reversed, and it was enough to carry the whole market.

Brent crude fell about 7% to just under $90 a barrel. A week ago it was above $100. The reason is political, not economic — the US and Iran both stopped firing at each other over the weekend after nearly two weeks of strikes around the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow sea lane a fifth of the world's oil passes through. Less fighting, less fear of supply being cut, cheaper oil. And because India buys almost all its oil from abroad, a cheaper barrel is straightforwardly good news for nearly everything here — the Decoder post below has the actual maths.

IT was the best sector, up about 2.5%, its best patch in months — all ten stocks in the index closed green, Infosys +3.6%, TCS +1.9%. Worth being honest about why, though: it had nothing to do with oil. The rupee is near 96.5 to the dollar, close to its weakest ever, and a weak rupee means Infosys and TCS bank more rupees on the same dollar of work abroad. Add traders buying back bets they'd placed against the sector, and you get a day like this.

Eternal was the single biggest gainer in the Nifty, up 5.6% on heavy volume, with IndiGo right behind at +5.1%. The one clear red mark was ONGC, down 4.2% — which is the most interesting thing on the screen today, so it gets its own post.

The breadth backed the move up. 43 of the 50 Nifty stocks rose and all 16 major sector indexes finished higher — a broad rally, not two heavyweights dragging the index. Midcaps and smallcaps did a touch better than the large names, up around 1.1% and 1.3%.

The levels: Nifty 23,996 (+0.96%), Sensex 76,836 (+1.02%), Bank Nifty back above 57,000. Rupee near 96.5.
#stockmarkets #NIFTY50 #Sensex #INDIA #oil

[Ethereum Institutional @ethereuminsti]

Fidelity chose @ethereum to issue its first ever stablecoin.

FIDD, the Fidelity Digital Dollar, is issued by Fidelity Digital Assets, an OCC-chartered national trust bank.

Fidelity at a glance:

→ 50m+ individual investors
→ $17.9 trillion in assets under administration
→ 5.5 million daily average trades

With FIDD, Fidelity is bringing more of the capital markets lifecycle onchain.

Another major FI making Ethereum the default chain in its digital asset strategy.

Live in production on @ethereum and in DeFi on Curve and Uniswap.

[amit @amitisinvesting]

Futures are up, bitcoin is up, and oil is down because of reports that the US and Iran have stopped strikes against each other for the time being.

Trump was supposed to strike on Friday but ordered the military not to, and as a result Iran's retaliation was stopped because there wasn't anything to retaliate to.

I am not sure if this is a sign of actual progress that can lead to something meaningful, but if there was ever a time for some type of ceasefire, it would be when...

- The 10-yr passed 4.7%
- Oil was up 25% in a month
- The sector responsible for the majority of the S&P 500's earnings growth (SMH) was down 16%
- Rate hike probabilities passed 75% for October
- US national gas prices passed $4/gallon again

Any escalation would just lead to more inflation and uncertainty for stocks which obviously wouldn't be the best for the broader economy.

The big headline on Friday was that China talked to Trump and assured him they would never sell weapons to Iran while others reported that China is actually trying to secure a peace deal between Iran and the US.

Maybe there is some truth to this given Trump responded to a reporter on Friday and said, "we are talking to them, maybe there won't be a tipping point, maybe there will be," implying that there might be more talks happening that are positive even though every set of talks recently has not resulted in anything closer to peace.

Big earnings this week with $MSFT $META $HOOD $AAPL $AMZN $SOFI $RDDT $V $UPS $MA and more along with the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. It will be Kevin Warsh's second meeting as Fed Chair.

Hoping we get some relief as more escalation would really just create an ugly environment for inflation, risk on assets, and the potential for rate cuts.

[GAURAV BHOSALE @GauravB_7]

Few questions I have for @BMNRONETH

1) The programme is described as primarily selling puts, but $124.6m of premium was paid against $103.9m received over nine months. What was the rest of the book?

2) Selling ETH puts while holding 5.4 million ETH adds to the same exposure rather than offsetting it. What is the stated objective of the programme — income, accumulation at lower prices, or something else?

Company really needs to clarify the derivatives stretegy. @fundstrat

#ETH #BMNR

[GAURAV BHOSALE @GauravB_7]

BitMine now owns 5.8 million Ethereum coins. That's about 4.8% of every Ethereum that exists. It filed its quarterly accounts with the US regulator on 14 July and I read the whole thing this morning. Two numbers in it are worth your Sunday.

The first one. Over nine months the company sold new shares and raised $11.87 billion and spent $11.69 billion of it buying Ethereum. Its share count went from 232 million to 580 million. In nine months it issued more than twice as many shares as it had issued in its entire life before that.

What did shareholders get for it? Per share, more coin. Each share had 0.0081 Ethereum behind it in August. By end-May it had 0.0093. That's 16% more coin per share, and it is exactly what the company says it is trying to do.

Now the second number. The value of everything the company owns, divided by the number of shares, fell from $37.40 to $20.01 over those same nine months. Down 47%.

Both of those are true at the same time. Coin per share up 16%. Coin price down 55%. One of those is much bigger than the other. That is the whole structure in one line — the machine does exactly what it advertises, and it barely matters, because it's bolted to a price nobody at the company controls.

Then there's the bit I had to read twice. In December the company changed the exact moment of day at which it values its coins — from midnight New York time to midnight London time. Coins trade all night, so the minute you pick changes the number. Its own footnote says that if it had stuck with the old moment, the coins would have been worth $225 million more at the end of February, and the quarterly loss per share would have been about 50 cents smaller. Disclosed, legal, and buried where almost nobody goes.

The thing I'd keep an eye on is the funding cost. BitMine sold a preferred share in June that pays 9.5% a year, in cash, every single week. Its coins earn about 2.7% a year, and they pay in more coins, not dollars. Cash going out, coins coming in. Something has to bridge that.
#BMNR #ETH

[vidIQ @vidIQ]

What if Claude had data from 135M YouTube channels? Now it does.

[GAURAV BHOSALE @GauravB_7]

If your family put away any savings in the 1980s or 90s, there's a good chance some of it sat in a fund called US-64. Around 2 crore Indians owned it. For most of them it felt as safe as a bank fixed deposit — and in July 2001 it froze solid, and the government eventually had to write a ₹14,561 crore cheque to make people whole.

The mechanism is the whole story. US-64 didn't show you what it was worth. It quoted you a price — a number UTI simply announced and promised to buy your units back at. In May 2001 that price was ₹14.25 a unit. When UTI was finally forced to reveal what one unit was actually worth — everything the fund owned, divided by the number of units, which is what every mutual fund calls its NAV — the real figure was around 56% lower. The fund had been telling 2 crore people their money was worth nearly double what it was.

How does a gap that big open up? It opens because US-64 never published its NAV. Not once in 37 years. It paid a fat, rising dividend — 18% in the early 90s, up to 26% by 1995 — so everyone assumed it was healthy. Underneath, it had quietly loaded up on weak stocks, some tied to the Ketan Parekh scam that blew up in early 2001. The quoted price stayed calm while the real value sank. Nobody could see the gap because nobody was allowed to.

On 2 July 2001, UTI suspended all buying and selling of US-64 for six months — the first freeze in its history. Two crore people couldn't touch their own money. That was on top of a ₹3,300 crore rescue back in 1999. In 2002 US-64 skipped its dividend for the first time ever.

Now look at today. Indians hold ₹82 lakh crore in mutual funds, the most ever, spread across nearly 9.78 crore SIP accounts — close to five times the number of people US-64 ever had. The easy line to write is "this could happen again." My read is that it can't, and the reason is the most boring reform nobody celebrates.

Every mutual fund in India now has to publish its real NAV every single evening. That one rule is the whole difference. US-64 broke because it could hide the gap between its quoted price and its real value for decades. A fund whose value you can check every day can't build a 56% lie — the number moves in front of you, a rupee at a time, so there's never a hidden cliff.

So the thing that actually protects your SIP was never the size of the pool, or the government standing behind it. It's that one dull rule: you can see the real number, daily. Where the old US-64 trick can still exist is exactly the products that don't mark themselves to market every day — some assured-return insurance plans, and certain private-credit or alternative investment funds where the value is stated by the manager, not shown daily. That's the place to check whether a quoted price has drifted from a real one — not your index fund.

#US64 #MutualFundsIndia #StockMarket #Investing #FinancialHistory #PersonalFinance

[Milk Road @milkroaddaily]

Most critics think Ethereum is getting cannibalized by L2s.

But the founders of Ethlabs believe Ethereum is quietly positioning itself to become the root of the global economy.

Fast confirmation rules are set to slash transfer friction by 98%, L2s are onboarding tens of millions of real-world users, and L1 is cementing its position as the primary economic settlement hub.

FT @BitcoinJesusETH @adietrichs @barnabemonnot @_julianma

Tune in to know more

⏱ TIME POINTS ⏱
01:42 - How Can Ethereum Become The Root Of The Global Economy?
05:44 - How Does Ethlabs Collaborate With Other Entities?
09:01 - Who Controls The Ethereum Improvement Proposal Process?
11:26 - Benefits & Tradeoffs Of Ethereum's New Org Structure
13:52 - The First Priorities And Target Upgrades For Ethlabs
16:15 - How Will Upgrades Like Faster Slot Times Reach The Market?
20:47 - Ethlabs Focus: Short-Term Upgrades vs Long-Term Goals
22:53 - Is There A Concrete Roadmap For Ethlabs?
27:00 - What Is The Strategy For Growing Ethereum User Adoption?
29:01 - Sponsor: Securitize
29:39 - Sponsor: Bitget
30:12 - What Are The Ecosystem Builders' Takes About Ethereum?
33:22 - Does Layer 2 Growth Accrue Value To Ethereum Or To L2s?
38:39 - The Updated Vision For L1 And L2 Alignment
41:45 - How Will Ethereum Balance ETH Asset Supply And Demand?
46:10 - What Do Collaborations With DATs Look Like?
50:06 - How Can Devs And Community Members Contribute To Ethlabs?
51:29 - How Is Ethlabs Navigating Crypto Twitter Dynamics?

[World of Statistics @stats_feed]

🇮🇳 USD to Indian Rupee

2000: $1 = ₹44.94
2005: $1 = ₹44.10
2010: $1 = ₹45.73
2015: $1 = ₹62.97
2020: $1 = ₹76.38
2026: $1 = ₹96.57

[GAURAV BHOSALE @GauravB_7]

Everyone says domestic buying can absorb whatever foreign investors sell. There's a real test of that claim, and it isn't holding as cleanly this time.

In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, and oil spiked past $130 a barrel. On the day itself, Nifty fell 4.8% to close at 16,248 — its worst single day since the Covid crash two years earlier, wiping out roughly ₹13 lakh crore of market value in one session. FIIs kept selling through the year, pulling out ₹1.2 lakh crore in total, their heaviest outflow on record at the time. Domestic investors—mutual funds, insurance, and banks—bought ₹2.74 lakh crore over the same period. Not only did the market survive that year, Nifty actually closed 2022 higher than where it started. It was the first calendar year domestic money had fully absorbed a year of heavy foreign selling.

This year has the same shape, at a bigger scale. FIIs sold ₹3.4 lakh crore in just the first half of 2026—already close to 2022's full-year number, in six months. DIIs bought ₹4.5 lakh crore, an even wider cushion than 2022 had. And this week's selloff had the same trigger as 2022: an oil price spike from a Middle East war, not a domestic problem.

But Nifty is down about 9% since 1 January, from 26,130 to 23,767. The mechanism that fully worked in 2022 hasn't stopped working—DIIs are still buying more than FIIs are selling, by a wider margin than last time. It just hasn't been enough to keep the index flat, let alone green.

My honest read on the difference: 2022's foreign selling landed inside a market with strong earnings growth under it. This year's has landed alongside genuinely softer numbers—HDFC Bank's record-low margin and Infosys trimming guidance, both this week, are symptoms of the same thing. Domestic money can supply the floor. It can't manufacture the earnings growth that decides whether the floor holds or keeps sinking.
#stockmarkets #FII #DII #moneyflow

[GAURAV BHOSALE @GauravB_7]

DII buying in July has slowed to its weakest pace since April last year, right as FII selling has picked back up. All year the story was domestic money covering every rupee of foreign selling. Worth watching if that still holds through August.
#Stockmarkets #FII #DII

[GAURAV BHOSALE @GauravB_7]

Week in Review
Five things that actually mattered in Indian markets this week.

1) It was a rough week. Nifty fell 2.33% to close at 23,767. Sensex fell 2.68% to 76,059. That's the sharpest weekly drop in a while, and large-cap stocks took the worst of it—even more than the broader market. Banking and real estate led the fall. FMCG and auto were the only bright spots, holding onto decent results.

2) The reason markets stayed nervous all week: oil. The US carried out its 13th straight night of strikes on Iran, and Houthi militants attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea. Brent crude broke above $100 a barrel midweek, the first time in nearly two months. It settled near $98 by Friday, still up roughly 10% from where the week started. Pricier oil means a costlier import bill for India and stickier inflation — exactly what a market hoping for rate cuts doesn't want.

3) HDFC Bank had a quarter to forget. Profit rose 5% to ₹19,060 crore, but the number that worried people was the net interest margin. That fell to 3.26%, the lowest on record for the bank. The stock fell nearly 7% over two sessions.

4) Infosys disappointed more quietly. Profit rose 12% and revenue grew 14% for the June quarter — both decent. But the company narrowed its full-year guidance to 1.5–3% revenue growth, down from the 1.5–3.5% it had promised in April. The stock fell 2.4%. Buried in the same announcement: CEO Salil Parekh hands over to company veteran Ashiss Kumar Dash next April, when his second term ends.

5) The foreign-vs-domestic money tug of war continued exactly as it has all year. Foreign funds have pulled ₹3.4 lakh crore out of Indian shares in the first half of 2026. Domestic funds — largely SIP money — have put in ₹4.5 lakh crore over the same period, more than covering it. This week the offset was near-exact: Thursday alone, domestic funds bought ₹2,947 crore against foreign selling of ₹2,999 crore. But domestic buying in July has actually slowed to its weakest pace since April last year — worth watching if foreign selling keeps up.
#stockmarkets #INDIA #weekreview

[GAURAV BHOSALE @GauravB_7]

One number from Bank of America I keep coming back to.
Fund managers are holding just 3.6% cash right now — the lowest since February, and low enough to trip BofA's own contrarian "sell" indicator. That's happened 16 times since 2002. Average return over the following month: −0.5%.
Make of that what you want. I'm just noting it happened. #BOA #stockmarkets #ratehike

[GAURAV BHOSALE @GauravB_7]

Six months ago almost nobody was talking about the Fed raising rates. Everyone was waiting for cuts.
This week the odds of a hike at Wednesday's meeting went from 12% to 38% — in seven days.
Bank of America now has three hikes pencilled in before December.
The reason isn't complicated. Oil touched $100 a barrel on Thursday, and a central bank still trying to kill inflation does not enjoy seeing that.