Gauss Research

We track on-chain activity, macro trends & momentum to spot the next big move. Follow for daily charts & high-conviction signals.

[Gauss Research @GaussResearch]

https://t.co/eZnOOCamKW

[Gauss Research @GaussResearch]

Coinbase announced tokenized equities, pre-IPO perps, prediction markets, equity options, AI agent rails, and a unified USDC account.

Equities, derivatives, payments, and agent commerce are now part of the same roadmap.

A few years ago, Coinbase was almost entirely a spot exchange.

[Gauss Research @GaussResearch]

Yesterday's rally wasn't led by Bitcoin.

Solana Eco (+9.6%), DEXs (+8.2%), Ethereum Eco (+7.8%), and Lending (+7.5%) outperformed while BTC gained just 1%.

The previous leg higher was driven by Bitcoin. Yesterday, the market rewarded beta.

[Gauss Research @GaussResearch]

Sunrise-issued assets on Solana have surpassed $500M in supply.

Spot trading volume reached new highs in June as new assets continued to enter the ecosystem.

The platform has grown substantially since its initial launch.

[Gauss Research @GaussResearch]

Fed decision this week.

Rates are expected to remain unchanged.

Kevin Warsh's first press conference as Fed Chair will be closely watched for any shift in tone around the path of rates.

[Gauss Research @GaussResearch]

SpaceX went public today. Its onchain version launched on Solana the same day.

Backpack Securities buys SPCX shares and tokenizes them 1:1 through Sunrise, with redemption back into traditional brokerage accounts via ACATS.

Solana already clears 98% of tokenized equity volume.

The first major IPO to trade onchain alongside Nasdaq is now live.

[Gauss Research @GaussResearch]

Since launching the Gauss Alpha Portfolio, our best-performing position is up 50.11%.

Our worst-performing position? Bitcoin.

The June update details how the portfolio evolved, the rationale behind our first rebalance, and the framework guiding our decisions.

[Gauss Research @GaussResearch]

https://t.co/eZnOOCamKW

[Gauss Research @GaussResearch]

ETH is down ~19% since May closed.

May ended with the largest long-liquidation event since October 2025, forcing roughly $650M out of the market in the final week alone.

ETF flows confirmed the weakness, with around $500M leaving ETH ETFs during the month.

The notable exception was DATCO demand. More than 341K ETH was absorbed, with Bitmine accounting for roughly 338K.

[Gauss Research @GaussResearch]

DRV is up 44% over the past week, yet the valuation is cheaper than it was two months ago.

Derive just posted its strongest revenue week on record, generating roughly $110K net of rebates.

P/S compressed from 50x in March to ~25x today because revenue grew faster than market cap.

Since May, buybacks have exceeded emission-driven sell pressure every single week.

[Gauss Research @GaussResearch]

User growth is the strongest leading indicator of revenue growth hyperliquid:native

[Tobias Reisner @reisnertobias]

Hyperliquid hit a new ATH in Daily Active Users

[Gauss Research @GaussResearch]

The June update for the Gauss Alpha Portfolio is live.

Bitcoin is down 13.80% since launch.

The portfolio is down 3.44%.

The gap between those two numbers explains almost everything that happened this month.

Performance attribution, portfolio changes, and our updated market view in the Article.

[Gauss Research @GaussResearch]

https://t.co/eZnOOCamKW

[Gauss Research @GaussResearch]

Three things happened last week.

Kalshi launched a regulated bitcoin perpetual.
Coinbase received a no-action letter tied to Deribit access.
CME moved crypto derivatives to a 24/7 schedule.

Perpetuals and continuous trading were the two biggest advantages of offshore venues.

The gap is getting smaller.

[Gauss Research @GaussResearch]

Solana’s burn mechanism barely matters today.

Since SIMD 96, priority fees flow to validators, leaving base fee burns near negligible levels.

SIMD 547 would push burn to roughly 2,850 SOL per day at current activity, around 4x the current pace.

Combined with SIMD 411’s faster disinflation path, SOL emissions could look very different.

Still under discussion. Alpenglow comes first.

[Gauss Research @GaussResearch]

Two weeks since the May update.

The portfolio peaked near +17% before the broader market correction and now sits at +9.44% since inception.

HYPE remains the strongest position, up 50.97% since entry. ETH has been the weakest link at -10.35%.

The thesis remains intact.

June update coming soon.

[Gauss Research @GaussResearch]

hyperliquid:native ETF inflows are already outpacing BTC ETFs at the same stage of launch.

Two spot ETFs launched in four days, pushing total AUM above $140M.

BTC ETFs lost $1.26B last week.

ETF demand, fee buybacks, and product expansion through HIP-3 are reinforcing each other. The bid keeps finding new sources.

[Gauss Research @GaussResearch]

Gauss Alpha Portfolio: +14.91%
BTC: +6.91%.

BTC led the move early, as expected. More recently, the DeFi positions have started widening the gap, with HYPE up 58.12% and now representing the portfolio’s largest source of alpha.

Full portfolio and positioning in our latest article.

[Gauss Research @GaussResearch]

SpaceX perps launched on Hyperliquid last week under SPCX, generating $33M in first-day volume.

The contract traded up to $216 per share, implying a valuation above $2.5T before IPO.

Two US spot ETFs launched in four days. HYPE reached a new ATH. CME and ICE raised manipulation concerns.

The market answered with higher open interest.

Private equity price discovery is starting to move onchain.

[Gauss Research @GaussResearch]

Eight high-profile departures from the Ethereum Foundation in recent months, five in May alone.

This past week, a Bankless co-founder who spent years with ~99% of his net worth in ETH sold his position.

ETH is down 9.5% over the last 7 days and is now the weakest position in our portfolio.

We entered with conviction around Ethereum’s role in stablecoins and tokenization. That view has not changed.

Leadership, execution, and Ethereum’s ability to navigate the next phase of competition deserve close attention.

[Gauss Research @GaussResearch]

+5.3% for the Gauss Alpha Portfolio over the last 7 days.

BTC declined 3.3% over the same period.

Recent strength came from the DeFi positions.

Full update soon.

[Gauss Research @GaussResearch]

HYPE is up 49.44% since entry, now the best performing position in the Gauss Alpha Portfolio.

It was our second largest allocation from day one.

The thesis centered on profitability, self-funded growth and buybacks. The setup is playing out.

Full investment thesis in our latest article.