Geeks of Finance

Two finance geeks. Stocks/Options/Sarcasm. Data-driven analysis. Join our free newsletter and active Discord community.

[Geeks of Finance @GeekStrategy]

$SPX 0 DTE GEX picture started out quite negative, but even after the open, we didn't see much GEX below 7310 and 7320. Flow has shifted toward 7425.Lots of overhead resistance between 7425 and 7440,so the burden of proof is upon the bulls to overtake potential strong resistance

[Geeks of Finance @GeekStrategy]

Tricky spot- $SPX GEX flow at 7345 into the close, but staying above 7370 risks squeezing back toward 7400. As long as below 7400, 7345 then 7320 is a risk

[Geeks of Finance @GeekStrategy]

Late last week, we noted in particular the possibility of weakness today (June 23) based on what GEX was telling us about specific large clusters this week.
Now $SPX is fighting a battle at 7400 that may determine a trip to 7350 or a short squeeze back up. $QQQ 715 below 720.

[Geeks of Finance @GeekStrategy]

7400 $SPX is a line in the sand- above 7400 keeps 7600 alive as a potential target. A close below may open the door to 7000, so Monday's potential of 7335 introduces an element of uncertainty

[Geeks of Finance @GeekStrategy]

$SPX net GEX at 7600 is still a likely magnet based on the current GEX picture, but when?

7500 is current resistance, and 7335/7345 are both BIG GEX clusters expiring Monday..The largest individual net clusters beyond today's expiry.

One possibility: Down next wk, up into EOM?

[Geeks of Finance @GeekStrategy]

With little GEX above 740, we could be in for some chop with $QQQ, likely trading between 710-740 in coming days.

There's a chance we could spike to 750, though I'd expect it to be short-lived. A break below 700 would be quite negative. $SMH is likely limited by the 650 area.

[Geeks of Finance @GeekStrategy]

GEX and volume in the chart above reflects only this week, not the total picture (not too different, though)

[Geeks of Finance @GeekStrategy]

$SPX seems to be floating in outerspace (fitting given the $SPCX IPO), but mean reversion lower may not happen until a tag of 7600.

Scenario 1: Tag 7600, consolidate (could be a drop from here). Live as long as 7475 holds, in my view
Scenario 2: Drop below 7475 targets 7400

[Geeks of Finance @GeekStrategy]

$VIX cowboy at the 65 strike with 400,000+ contracts traded 🤣

As for the monthly expiration tomorrow- lots of negative GEX at 16. We might tag the weekly HMA at 15.53 but I think vol bears are pushing on a string with the VIX close to 15.

[Geeks of Finance @GeekStrategy]

Various timeframes are overbought, and we have Warsh speaking Wednesday as well as monthly $VIX options expiring, so we may see temporary weakness at some point.

[Geeks of Finance @GeekStrategy]

Friday's $SPX update is aging well-
Intraday high so far is 7577.92, just above the 7576 level mentioned.
GEX looks positive this week, with 7400 being the last major GEX cluster to the downside (looking strictly at this week's GEX), 7600 to the upside.
An overshoot target: 7635

[Geeks of Finance @GeekStrategy]

Looking at $SPX into OpEx week (remember, the week ends Thursday for markets):
7500 is the largest net GEX cluster expiring 6/18. 7600 is also present.
Possible reversal/consolidation at the 7576 HMA up to 7600, if upside materializes beyond 7500.

[Geeks of Finance @GeekStrategy]

$SPX 0 DTE: 7450 looks like overhead resistance, holding over 7450 targets 7500.

The GEX picture has shifted positively since yesterday, but danger still lurks on smaller timeframes. A break below 7400 may target 7350, even as low as 7200 early next week.

[Geeks of Finance @GeekStrategy]

$SPX fiddling around the 50 EMA, potentially rebounding toward 7400 if it can hold 7300 as support. Failure at 7300 increases the odds of 7200, or possibly 7000, based on the smaller amount of GEX between 7000-7200.

$VVIX and the $VIX suggest caution is still warranted.

[Geeks of Finance @GeekStrategy]

QQQpybara making progress on the back of a semicondillo

[Geeks of Finance @GeekStrategy]

$IWM looked bullish this morning, but the rejection has been pretty harsh at the daily and weekly HMA. Leaning bearish below 285, acceleration to 275 below 280, based on GEX.

$VVIX is up 12! We need to see a huge red candle on VVIX to bet on sustained rebound. $SPX to 7000?

[Geeks of Finance @GeekStrategy]

$SPX reminded people this morning that the character of the market has shifted since last week.
7450=important pivot
7400 holding so far, GEX flow shows positive GEX dropping off and attention shifting toward negative GEX at 7375 and 7400

1 hour Keltners look ugly

[Geeks of Finance @GeekStrategy]

$SPX 7500-7550 are the next upside resistance areas we're watching.

Loss of 7400 can bring 7300 or lower pretty quickly..Interesting spot with the $VIX already in the low 18s. The GEX picture suggests 17 might be a floor.

[Geeks of Finance @GeekStrategy]

This played nicely: $QQQ lost 727, made it to the 705-710 zone, then bounced.

Momentum above GEX area at 720 can lead to a retest of daily/weekly HMA at 735(ish).
Loss of 720 can retest 700 or lower.

The weekly picture still paints a view of limited upside relative to downside risk.

[Geeks of Finance @GeekStrategy]

$QQQ lost the key 727 area we've noted in recent days in our newsletter, now approaching 715. 705-710 might be a good spot to look for consolidation or reversal, based on the GEX picture currently.
An intraday bounce may imply the dip continues into next week before a solid rebound.

[Geeks of Finance @GeekStrategy]

$QQQ lost the key 727 area we've noted in recent days in our newsletter, now approaching 715. 705-710 might be a good spot to look for consolidation or reversal, based on the GEX picture currently.
An intraday bounce may imply the dip continues into next week before a solid rebound.