Jakub Gemrot

[Jakub Gemrot @GemrotJ]

Removing X from my device. Hello @bluesky! And if anyone is reading this, you should too.

[Jakub Gemrot @GemrotJ]

@alexstubb Thoughts are not enough.

[Taras Mishchenko @tarasmi]

It's quite funny how Western politicians write words of condolence over murder of Navalny by Russia, but at the same time their countries will continue to buy Russian resources and sell Russians the technologies and components so that they can kill even more people.

[Yaroslav Trofimov @yarotrof]

Let’s see what “devastating” means.

[Garry Kasparov @Kasparov63]

I received the horrible news here in Munich at the security conference. The situation here is pathetic. NATO and the leaders of the free world are treading water while Ukrainians are spilling blood.

[Tim White @TWMCLtd]

Welcome to the Daily Thread for Friday 16 February.
Day 723 of the full-scale invasion by #Russia. Their 10 day operation continues.

All the news, all day long, in one handy🧵

Keep returning and please share/boost/like/comment💙💛

[Joanna J Bryson @j2bryson]

Wow, I thought the Republicans doing this BS Russia nuking space leak yesterday was a bad & blatant attempt to disrupt the #MSC. https://t.co/CB5KLc4AQ5 Russia announcing the murder of Navalny when his wife is appearing there…They must be really worried about something happening

[Rt. Hon Ben Wallace @BenWallace70]

For every action, Putin must feel a reaction. For the murder of Navalny we must: 1. Nato members to pledge to train 200k Ukrainians a year. 2. Double down on supplies including Taurus from Germany. 3. Tighten the Sanction regime. 1/2

[Jakub Janovsky @Rebel44CZ]

@ChristopherJM I dont think Europe can afford to ignore the threat of the Russian military (especially if the orange idiot gets elected) and Europe definitely needs to rearm, IMO we should work with reality-based scenario planning.

[Saint Javelin @saintjavelin]

Waiting to see the “devastating” consequences in 1…2…3…

[Jakub Gemrot @GemrotJ]

@jurgen_nauditt @Kasparov63 This is sick.

[Jürgen Nauditt 🇩🇪🇺🇦 @jurgen_nauditt]

❗️❗️❗️Unbelievable.
France, Greece and Cyprus blocked the decision to purchase ammunition for Ukraine outside the EU, — Politico

France previously said it would allow purchases outside the EU if the bloc did not fulfill its promise to supply 1 million shells by March, which it will.

France also does not want to disclose the total amount of its supplies to Ukraine, despite pressure from Germany.

P.S. Maybe because according to press reports there should only be 3,000 artillery ammunition per month from France - which is a joke.

[Luai Ahmed @JustLuai]

Europe: Welcome here! Be a part of our culture!
Islamists: No, we want to change your culture and make it like the theocracies we ran away from
Europe: That’s not going to happen
Islamists: That’s Islamophobic!!

[Andrew Perpetua @AndrewPerpetua]

If you wonder why Ukrainian defenses in Avdiivka aren’t holding up. They need long range air defense. Preferably fighters with long range air to air missiles. Like, for example, a meteor missile.

[Jakub Gemrot @GemrotJ]

@Rebel44CZ Ru is desperate to block the US aid bill for Ukraine.

[Michael McFaul @McFaul]

Illogical. And disappointing. Hope there’s a way forward. This approach makes America look weak, not great.

[POLITICO @politico]

House Speaker Mike Johnson threw cold water on the Senate-passed foreign aid bill, signaling he will not bring it for a vote as it stands.

"The Republican-led House will not be jammed or forced into passing (the Senate's) foreign aid bill," he said.

[Jakub Gemrot @GemrotJ]

@JacquiHeinrich "concerning Russian capability" LMAO, buying pop corn for tomorrow, to see who else is a Russia's asset in the US.

[(((Tendar))) @Tendar]

There is indication that Putin tried to freeze the conflict in Ukraine by bypassing the Ukrainian leadership and talk to the US, which understandably rejected the request. Ukraine is an independent nation and is the only one to be addressed, but that is not the real topic.

The real topic is that this very move is very revealing. Just like the constant Russian yelling that Ukraine should “surrender already”, it tells us that Russia is not in that shape to have a long war. If they could win this war, they would have done it long ago. They already stopped claiming that they intend to take Ukraine as “careful”as possible, because it wasn’t possible to sell that garbage even to their brain washed audience. They simple cannot succeed.

Aside from the military failure, the economy is a far greater concern for Moscow. The Russian economy is basically a war economy which produces zero permanent value. Every destroyed tank, every fired grenade, every sunk ship is equal to a GDP loss. The long-term prognostications for Russia’s economy and future altogether are absolutely grim. While all industries in the world invest in automation, IT, AI, new technologies in general, is Russia caught in retrofitting T-62 and T-55, which after costly deployment get burned the very next month. I doubt that I have to explain too much how much “value” this produces for humankind in the 21st Century. If the Russian economy wants to have even a theoretical chance of survival then it needs this war to be ended right now.

What comes on top are the Ukrainian efforts to undermine the Russian energy sector. We saw so far only small efforts to destroy Russian energy ports and infrastructure but it already caused significant losses. Russia can barely repair its current equipment and when it comes to extending their production facilities in the energy sector they are (or better were) completely reliant on Western companies. When Ukrainians succeed in destroying the energy ports, which are sitting ducks, then the blood of Russia’s economy is getting drained.

The situation for the Russian work force is dire as well. The Russian “gains” in Ukraine are still minuscule if at all and come at a cost which are beyond any reasonable cost-benefit ratio. Every killed Russian soldier is another loss for the economy. Even the (yet) living Russian soldier is not available for the economy and we haven’t even covered the tens of thousands permanently maimed who will need a lifetime of care.

Russia is in a far worse shape than many realize. This war, which was started by Putin, is a Vietnam and Afghanistan on steroids. The Soviet Union, which was 10 times more powerful and had back then far less competition when it comes to industrial capacity, couldn’t survive this kind of grind. I’m sure that almost everyone in Russia’s oligarchy is aware of this fact and behind closed doors is begging for a pause.

Therefore, I find the Reuters news plausible. This and the frantic and desperate effort by Russia and its lesser Western minions to stop the military aid package for Ukraine returns a very coherent picture that when the West supports Ukraine in a steady and continuing fashion then we will inevitably reach Russia’s breaking point. This point can be tomorrow, next month, or next year, depending how long Putin can dodge the bullets in his palaces, but the point will eventually come when the Western resolve is steady. Sometimes I read from the detractors that the newest military aid package has “no strategy”, but nothing could be fairer from truth. There is a strategy and just laid it out.

The course is clear. Help Ukraine, increase the output of military gear, increase sanctions, close sanction holes and tell Putin that there is no other way for him than to go. And if Vladimir responds with the sentence “only over my dead body” then we shall reply:

So be it.

#Ukraine #Russia

[Khachapuri 🇬🇪 Bavovna 🇺🇦 and Chabor ⚪️🔴⚪️ @NicoG_Renko]

Why is this not trending? Mike Johnson is paid by russia.

https://t.co/paBHih1Noa