Geo thinker

[Jérôme Godefroy @jeromegodefroy]

Parmi les grands perdants du fiasco de Trump en Iran, il y a le peuple iranien dont le pays-prison est plus que jamais bouclé à double tour.

[Faytuks News @Faytuks]

Trump recently pushed for Netanyahu to order the withdrawal of Israeli troops from southern Lebanon and Syria's Mount Hermon as part of the agreement with Iran. Netanyahu refused -Maariv

[Geo thinker @Geothinkerhq]

@AmitSegal https://t.co/v6TGswxYJL

[Geo thinker @Geothinkerhq]

Trump, le président qui vivait dans une dimension parallèle.

Annoncer une date limite pour commencer une guerre, c’était déjà signer la défaite.

[Amit Segal @AmitSegal]

After Donald Trump declared the agreement finalized last night, I recalled a line from Henry Kissinger: “It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal.”

The details are yet to be confirmed, but here is what the deal appears to be as of now.

It begins with an immediate, multi-front ceasefire—including Lebanon—and the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports in exchange for Iran “opening” the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is demanding an initial payment of $12 billion before the strait is opened, and is unlikely to be denied, judging by the hunger for a deal in Trump’s eyes.

A significant ambiguity remains over the strait, however. While Trump claims the opening will be “toll-free,” Iranian officials have previously indicated they may still impose fees or retain regulatory control—effectively securing a major Iranian war aim, with American assent lending it legitimacy. The deal also stipulates that within 60 days of its scheduled June 19 signing in Geneva, the two nations will begin follow-on talks addressing the termination of all U.S. sanctions, the nuclear issue and Iran’s economic reconstruction.

The framework appears to diverge significantly from earlier U.S. positions. Trump, who once insisted on the destruction of all Iranian nuclear facilities and zero uranium enrichment, told The New York Times that Iran would now be permitted low-level enrichment—meaning “zero enrichment” will not even be making it to the negotiating table. The IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency, for its part, framed the deal as a “tactical pause in the war rather than a final settlement,” warning that “many more concessions would be needed” for any future agreement and that Iran’s experience with U.S. bad faith makes one “unlikely.” Tehran is giving little ground elsewhere too: against the U.S. demand for a 20-year enrichment ban, it is countering with a mere five-year pause, and it is maneuvering to unlock at least some of its frozen assets early in the MOU process—easing U.S. leverage and securing vital economic relief before the core nuclear negotiations even begin.

Trump has declared that should those negotiations fail, the U.S. would return to war—which deserves to be taken as seriously as every other time he’s said it in the last 68 days.

So, to summarize: Iran gets its ports unblocked, sanctions relief and de facto recognition of its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz—in exchange for complying with the original ceasefire, restoring freedom of commerce and ceasing its random acts of violence. In the nuclear negotiations to follow, it will not be required to halt its program completely; only lower its enrichment, and only for somewhere between five years and, at the very most, twenty.

The American position in a word: surrender.
....

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[Ministry of Defense @Israel_MOD]

Israel Ministry of Defense Spokesperson’s Statement

Overnight, the management of the Eurosatory exhibition boarded up Israeli defense industry pavilions - despite these companies having met the French government’s outrageous demands and displayed solely defensive systems.

[Dani @AngryLevantine]

I don't give a fuck about the Strait of Hormuz

I want the end of the Islamic regime

Share if you agree

[Open Source Intel @Osint613]

Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich:

The agreement with Iran is bad for Israel and for the entire free world. Period.

The joint campaign had many achievements in weakening Iran, and they will not go to waste.

We will have to continue the campaign to topple the regime ourselves and in creative ways, and ensure that Iran will never have nuclear weapons.

[Yoav Kaufman 🇮🇱 @yoavkaufman]

The Art of Losing the Fucking Deal.

[Ahmed pak 🇵🇰 @Ahmedpak378456]

Trump betrayed the Ukrainians.
Trump betrayed the Iranians.
Trump betrayed the Israelis.

[Geo thinker @Geothinkerhq]

@MosabHasanYOSEF https://t.co/v6TGswxYJL

[Geo thinker @Geothinkerhq]

Trump, le président qui vivait dans une dimension parallèle.

Annoncer une date limite pour commencer une guerre, c’était déjà signer la défaite.

[Mosab Hassan Yousef @MosabHasanYOSEF]

The circus is over. An ugly confrontation is now inevitable. The Middle East is sitting on a powder keg.

[OSINTtechnical @Osinttechnical]

Footage of a Ukrainian PATRIOT SAM system successfully shooting down an incoming Russian Zircon/Kinzhal hypersonic missile over Kyiv overnight.

[Geo thinker @Geothinkerhq]

Trump se rêve en maître d’une hyperpuissance.

Il renvoie au monde l’image d’une Amérique faible et indigne de confiance.

[Geo thinker @Geothinkerhq]

Trump, le président qui vivait dans une dimension parallèle.

Annoncer une date limite pour commencer une guerre, c’était déjà signer la défaite.

[Geo thinker @Geothinkerhq]

Un JCPOA en pire.

Un coup fatal à la dissuasion américaine : si l’Iran tient tête aux États-Unis, à quoi servent encore les garanties de sécurité américaines au Moyen-Orient… et ailleurs ?

Chine, Russie, Turquie et puissances régionales observent et prennent des notes.