@LeandroAdonio@historicoracing Amor eterno a Costas, pero creo que era necesario. Lástima no tener la oportunidad de despedirlo en el cilindro , como se merece.
Elon Musk just identified which jobs go first, and it destroys every assumption about who’s safe.
Musk: “AI is going to take over those jobs like lightning. Anything that is digital, which is like just someone at a computer doing something.”
Not factory workers. Office workers. The people who spent decades assuming education and desk jobs meant security are actually first.
Musk: “Anything that’s physically moving atoms… those jobs will exist for a much longer time.”
Output is a file? Vulnerable. Output is physical? Protected. That’s the entire framework.
Musk: “AI is really still digital.”
AI doesn’t need a body. Doesn’t need an office. Just needs access to the same software you use. Executes faster. Never tires. Costs nothing to scale.
But it can’t weld. Can’t wire a building. Can’t fix pipes or work soil.
Musk: “Literally welding, electrical work, plumbing. Those jobs will exist for a much longer time.”
Trades aren’t the vulnerable jobs. They’re the durable ones. Physical presence, real-world adaptation, manual dexterity provide protection no digital credential offers.
Analyst, accountant, paralegal, programmer, anyone producing files and documents, automates first because digital work is exactly what AI does natively.
Person moving atoms has natural defense. Physics, unpredictable environments, material resistance create friction AI can’t scale past.
Person moving bits has nothing. No friction. No physical barrier. Just software AI already operates better than most humans.
The assumption that desk work and degrees represent safety just inverted completely. College graduate producing documents faces faster displacement than the electrician producing installations.
Society spent generations telling people trades were beneath them. Pushed everyone toward offices and screens. Turns out the people who didn’t listen built the most automation-resistant careers.
Most ironic outcome of the AI revolution. The work society treated as inferior turned out to be the work society couldn’t replace. And the work society valued most turned out to be the easiest to eliminate.
Bayes’ theorem is probably the single most important thing any rational person can learn.
So many of our debates and disagreements that we shout about are because we don’t understand Bayes’ theorem or how human rationality often works.
Bayes’ theorem is named after the 18th-century Thomas Bayes, and essentially it’s a formula that asks: when you are presented with all of the evidence for something, how much should you believe it?
Bayes’ theorem teaches us that our beliefs are not fixed; they are probabilities. Our beliefs change as we weigh new evidence against our assumptions, or our priors. In other words, we all carry certain ideas about how the world works, and new evidence can challenge them.
For example, somebody might believe that smoking is safe, that stress causes mouth ulcers, or that human activity is unrelated to climate change. These are their priors, their starting points. They can be formed by our culture, our biases, or even incomplete information.
Now imagine a new study comes along that challenges one of your priors. A single study might not carry enough weight to overturn your existing beliefs. But as studies accumulate, eventually the scales may tip. At some point, your prior will become less and less plausible.
Bayes’ theorem argues that being rational is not about black and white. It’s not even about true or false. It’s about what is most reasonable based on the best available evidence. But for this to work, we need to be presented with as much high-quality data as possible. Without evidence—without belief-forming data—we are left only with our priors and biases. And those aren’t all that rational.
@RacingClub Que bueno q muestren esto. La identidad de este equipo es total. Si logran mantener la base y y nos reforzamos bien estamos para marcar época
@DataRacingOK Contra Flamengo la vuelta fue su mejor partido. Una locura. Ayer cuando quiso jugar de Sosa, se mando alguna. Pero en la cueva la está rompiendo.