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[CoinJar @GetCoinJar]

Why June Matters for Crypto

May was one of the busiest macro months in recent memory. June picks up right where it left off.

June 11: ECB Rate Decision

The European Central Bank finally steps back into the frame. After holding in April and skipping May entirely, the ECB meets on June 11 with markets pricing in a real chance of a hike. Eurozone inflation has been running hotter than expected, partly driven by energy costs tied to the Middle East conflict. A hike from the ECB would reinforce a global tightening narrative, historically a headwind for crypto. If they hold, relief could be short-lived if their forward guidance signals more to come.

June 16: RBA Rate Decision

After three consecutive hikes in 2026, the RBA has signalled it now has room to pause and monitor how the economy absorbs the tightening so far. The cash rate sits at 4.35%, the highest in years. A hold would give households some breathing room and could provide a modest lift to risk sentiment. But with inflation still above target and the Middle East conflict continuing to push fuel prices higher, the door to further hikes hasn't closed. Markets will be watching closely for any shift in language from the Board.

June 16-17: Fed Meeting: Warsh's First as Chair

This is the big one. Kevin Warsh chairs his first FOMC meeting after being confirmed by the Senate on May 13 in the most divisive vote in Fed history. Warsh has called for "regime change" at the Fed and has publicly argued rates can be lower over time. But, he's inheriting an environment of sticky inflation and rising energy costs.

Markets are pricing near-certainty that rates hold at 3.50-3.75%. Every word of his post-meeting press conference will be parsed for signals on what the new era of Fed leadership actually means in practice.

Any surprise could ripple across crypto fast.

The Bigger Picture: Three major central bank decisions in one month, all against a backdrop of elevated inflation, Middle East uncertainty, and a brand-new Fed chair finding his footing. June has the ingredients for significant volatility.

This content is for information purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. CoinJar Europe Limited is authorised as a Crypto-Asset Service Provider under the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCAR) by the Central Bank of Ireland.

[CoinJar @GetCoinJar]

Sell in May and go away. This week's Onchain newsletter has a lot to say about that.

The US Clarity Act cleared a Senate panel. Crypto finally gets its regulatory framework, packaged with KYC, AML, and surveillance requirements.

Thorchain lost over $10M to an exploit. A patch was written. It failed in testing. The vulnerability stayed live.

The Ethereum Foundation lost two more researchers. All three protocol leads have already left this year.

And this is the last Onchain from Naomi. Thank you, Naomi. It has been a pleasure.

https://t.co/wmGw41H1ls

[CoinJar @GetCoinJar]

Who actually invented Bitcoin? There seem to be some new contenders.

Over 15 years since Bitcoin changed the world, and we still have no idea who actually created it. Satoshi Nakamoto walked away from the internet in 2010 and has never been heard from since. The Bitcoin whitepaper, the genesis block, the entire foundation of modern crypto, all the work of a ghost. We take a look at the leading suspects and the clues that have kept the world guessing..

https://t.co/Hm4flZGOf3

[CoinJar @GetCoinJar]

Crypto's new move: skip the exploit, hire a lawyer.

This week a dodgy law firm tried to hand frozen Lazarus Group funds to its own clients, Justin Sun sued the Trump crypto project and got a defamation countersuit in return, and crypto officially became the most muted topic on X, beating out politics.

When going to a wedding, maybe do not mention working in crypto.

Full breakdown here:

https://t.co/4P1rMi74EG

[CoinJar @GetCoinJar]

Why May Matters for Crypto

April was one of the most eventful months in recent memory for macro markets, and May arrives with the dust still settling. The picture hasn't gotten simpler.

May 5: RBA Rate Decision

At its March meeting, the RBA raised the cash rate, the second increase of 2026. The central bank cited inflation, tighter labour market conditions, and the energy price shock from the Middle East. This comes with a probability of another hike at the May 5 meeting.

If the RBA raises rates again, Australians will have less money to spend and crypto is often one of the first things people cut back on. Higher rates also tend to make investors more cautious overall, which can push prices down. If the RBA doesn't hike, that's generally better news for crypto in the short term.

May 5–7: Consensus Miami

The "Super Bowl of Blockchain" returns to the US, this time in Miami. The event serves as a key forum for the convergence of crypto at scale, institutional integration, and agentic commerce. Digital assets are no longer nascent; institutions are moving money on crypto rails, AI agents are engaging in live markets, and stablecoins are tying them all together. With 500+ speakers including policymakers and major institutional players, expect Consensus to set the narrative for the second half of the year.

May 12: US Inflation Data (CPI)

On May 12, the US releases its latest inflation figures. Right now inflation is still running high, with rising fuel costs from the Middle East conflict making things worse. If inflation comes in higher than expected, it makes it less likely the US will cut interest rates anytime soon. That tends to drag crypto prices down. If inflation is lower than expected, it could give crypto a short-term boost.

May 15: Jerome Powell's Term Ends

Jerome Powell's term as Fed chair officially ends on May 15, with Kevin Warsh nominated by President Trump to replace him. Warsh has suggested that over time lower interest rates make sense. A smooth transition is largely priced in, any disruption to that assumption could create short-term volatility across risk assets including crypto.

ECB: No Meeting in May But the Pressure Is Building

There is no ECB rate decision in May (the next falls on June 11), but ECB policymakers have acknowledged that the war in the Middle East has made the outlook significantly more uncertain. May's data releases across Europe will shape the June outcome. A more hawkish tilt ahead of June would be a headwind for crypto sentiment.

[CoinJar @GetCoinJar]

Big news for our Australian customers! PayPal deposits and withdrawals are now live on CoinJar!

You can now fund your CoinJar account using PayPal, including any bank account or card already linked to your PayPal wallet.

Here's what you need to know:

- Deposit fee: just 0.5%
- Withdrawals from crypto sales back to PayPal are free

Read more here:

https://t.co/aA00xwwjon

[CoinJar @GetCoinJar]

DeFi has had an “interesting” ride lately.

A sophisticated attack on Kelp DAO's rsETH bridge exploited weaknesses in cross-chain infrastructure, and the fallout rippled across protocols in ways that reminded everyone just how connected this ecosystem really is.

Morgan Stanley just launched a Bitcoin ETF and they are sending thousands of wealth advisors out to sell it. Nearly 4 in 5 institutions plan to put crypto in their portfolios.

Tether just threw Solana perp exchange Drift a lifeline after a rough Q2. In crypto, a crisis and an opportunity are often the same event, it just depends which side of the table you are sitting on.

Read the full blog here:

https://t.co/7yDP6rKIId

[CoinJar @GetCoinJar]

Buying a Bitcoin ETF and buying Bitcoin are not the same thing.

One gives you price exposure. The other gives you an asset you actually own and can use.

Learn more here:

https://t.co/nanKTAExiN

[CoinJar @GetCoinJar]

This week in crypto:

A $285M hack via a fake trading firm months in the making. An Avalanche CEO ratioed by the XRP army. Scammers faking the death of the world's oldest tortoise to launch a memecoin.

It's a clown's world. Naomi breaks it down.

https://t.co/DNTHkVLDQF

[CoinJar @GetCoinJar]

Why April Matters for Crypto

March was a big month for central banks, and the picture heading into April seems more complicated.

Apr 10: US Inflation Data (CPI)

The latest data is arriving against a backdrop of surging oil prices tied to the conflict in Iran. Some economists are forecasting CPI could rise to 3.5% or higher by the end of year if energy prices stay elevated. Any upside surprise could push rate cut hopes further out, historically a headwind for crypto. A hotter-than-expected print is likely to weigh on Bitcoin and risk assets broadly, while a softer number could spark a short-term relief rally across crypto markets.

Apr 29: Australian CPI

Australia's March quarter CPI is due on 29 April. With energy prices elevated and the RBA already in hiking mode, this will be closely watched. While Australia's monetary policy has limited direct impact on global crypto prices, a surprise result could weigh on sentiment in the Asia-Pacific trading session and affect locally listed crypto-related stocks.

Apr 29: US Federal Reserve Rate Decision

The Fed held rates steady again in March at 3.5%–3.75%, for the second meeting in a row. With inflation still above target and geopolitical uncertainty elevated, markets are now pricing in at most one cut for all of 2026. The April meeting will be closely watched for any shift in tone. Any hawkish surprise or pushback on rate cuts could trigger a selloff in crypto, while even a mildly dovish signal from Powell could be enough to lift sentiment across digital assets.

Apr 30: ECB Rate Decision

The ECB also held in March and took a more hawkish turn, revising its 2026 inflation forecast up to 2.6% due to the energy shock from the Middle East. A cut at the April meeting now looks unlikely. The focus will be on whether the ECB signals any change in direction. A more hawkish ECB tends to strengthen the euro and tighten global liquidity conditions, both of which have historically created short-term headwinds for crypto.

April could be a pivotal month, but the backdrop has shifted significantly since the start of the year.

[CoinJar @GetCoinJar]

This week in crypto was a reminder that the industry still has some serious growing up to do.

A trader lost nearly $50 million in a single Aave transaction, walking away with just $37k after a slippage disaster caused by an illiquid market and a routing problem on the frontend. The funds did not vanish, though. A block builder pocketed $34 million and an MEV bot took another $10 million.

Meanwhile, a bug in the Reserve Labs protocol let an exploiter mint $80 million worth of stablecoin against just $100k in collateral, briefly sending the coin to $0.14 before it recovered.

And somewhere in between, a new blockchain called Tempo is positioning itself as the default payment layer for AI agents, backed by Stripe and Paradigm, though it raises some pointed questions about how permissionless it actually is.

Three stories, one theme: crypto is moving fast, but the foundations still need work. Read the full breakdown on the CoinJar blog.

https://t.co/okAaYCIwMc

[CoinJar @GetCoinJar]

Is crypto just a casino now?

- An AI agent secretly mined crypto.

- Magic Eden pivoted to online gambling.

- Prediction markets let you bet on nuclear detonations.

Naomi breaks down this week's onchain chaos 👇

https://t.co/wNI25vgoSI

[CoinJar @GetCoinJar]

Why March matters for crypto

Mar 11: US CPI. Inflation cooling. If it continues, rate cut hopes rise. Historically good for Bitcoin, but no guarantee in the future.

Mar 17 – RBA decision. They hiked to 3.85% in February, the first rise in 2+ years. Another one can't be ruled out. Watch this closely.

Mar 18: Fed decision. No cut expected, but the tone matters. Even a hint of cuts could move markets.

Mar 19: ECB + Bank of England. Two central banks in one day. Any shift in tone could affect crypto globally.

Mar 25: Aussie CPI. Inflation is still running hot, this could shape RBA's next move.
March could set the tone for crypto well into Q2.

[CoinJar @GetCoinJar]

New On/Offchain blog: Onchain in bad taste.

- Aave loses key contributors BGD Labs over internal tensions.

- Zora pivots to Solana attention markets with low demand.

- An AI agent accidentally sends a large token sum. Our take on the current crypto market vibes.

Read here: https://t.co/q8GjTrdEP2

[CoinJar @GetCoinJar]

CoinJar just won GOLD at the 2026 Asia-Pacific Stevie Awards for Excellence in AI Innovation! Also proud to take home Silver for Fintech App Innovation!

CoinJar AI understands your portfolio, tracks the market, and delivers insights that matter. This makes crypto investing smarter and simpler for all Australians.

https://t.co/pJavJcBVfN

[CoinJar @GetCoinJar]

Onchain: The selling continues.

- Vitalik doubts L2s.
- Miners are struggling.
- Tether is printing profits (and buying gold).

Bear markets really do force the industry to think.

Click the link to read Naomi’s latest Onchain.

https://t.co/wJOIuXwegg

[CoinJar @GetCoinJar]

Full breakdown here: https://t.co/FUKBoax2sl

[CoinJar @GetCoinJar]

The intersection of AI and Crypto is a fascinating narrative in tech right now. But do you know how to actually use it?

AI trading bots (No more FOMO trades)

DePIN: The "Airbnb" for your GPU

Machine learning is spotting bugs and tracking illicit funds.

Start understanding the “AI-Crypto Era”.

Full breakdown here: https://t.co/xjdaw86rpa