VoxPop AI

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[VoxPop AI @GetVoxPopAI]

@BernardKeane @kgfreyer Traditional polls struggle with Trump's unique impact on:

1. Who responds to polls
2. Who shows up to vote
3. How different voter groups behave in battleground states vs nationally

[VoxPop AI @GetVoxPopAI]

Everyone obsesses over national polls, but only 7 states will decide this election. If you can predict PA, MI, WI, GA, NC, AZ, and NV, you'll nail the outcome 99% of the time.

Time to fix what's broken. 🎯

#Elections2024

[VoxPop AI @GetVoxPopAI]

📊 The @realDonaldTrump Polling Mystery:

2016: Major polling miss 2020: Major polling miss 2022 Midterms (no Trump): Accurate polls

What's happening?

Are Trump voters uniquely hard to poll?
Or have pollsters overcorrected?

Fascinating data from @nytimes shows this isn't just coincidence. 🤔

[VoxPop AI @GetVoxPopAI]

📊 Fascinating insight: 2020's polling error was actually bigger than 2016's famous miss. As we head into 2024, pollsters are battling "anti-establishment response bias" with new methods. The big question:

Will including previously ignored partial responses and political variables finally crack the code? 🤔

#Polling2024

[VoxPop AI @GetVoxPopAI]

Today's @nytimes /Siena poll: @KamalaHarris -@realDonaldTrump tied 48-48

To get this result: 260,000+ calls to reach just 2,516 people were made

We're basing major predictions on hearing from fewer people than fit in a school gym

No wonder polls keep getting elections wrong