NowYouSee 👀

@GhoorbinSteven

Unsual #CRYPTO ENTHUSIAST!

somewhere

Joined March 2021

1K Following

88 Followers

2.2K Posts

NowYouSee 👀 @GhoorbinSteven

about 1 year ago

@CrypticTrades_ Thank you Chief 🫡

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Cryptic Trades

@CrypticTrades_

about 1 year ago

$BTC - It's time for our Weekend Update, because it's gonna take the whole weekend to read this! 😂 Oh boy, this is gonna be a long one. Alright, the first things right now for Bitcoin is that we're in a weak seasonality period, where often times, the price is either flat, or in a slight downtrend, like we're seeing right now. Most of the times, there are multiple things that align which lead to a certain type of price action, like in this case, confluences we have analyzed: On-Chain Data(late longs that piled in), Elliott Wave Standpoint (we're in a corrective wave 2), Market Structure (Failed to form a new high on June 10th and entered a LL and LH market structure) Now, the real question, what does this pullback lead to. That's a far more valuable question. Because I think that this is creating the PERFECT environment for a bullish reversal, and let me explain why: Think about all the narratives that have emerged over the past few days, all the uncertainties, all the fears. Why is this happening, or rather why is this happening right now? Why is it that instead of seeing euphoria, we're seeing fear, even though the price is well above $100K? Well, to answer that question, we need to go more in the past. We need to go to a thread I've shared back in March of how market makers have used Liquidity Traps and Liquidation Cascades to accumulate and to force a counterparty out of retail trades. (Pause this thread and read the one from March: https://t.co/HCXyBnFny9) Alright, now that you're familiar with that concept, let's think about what narratives emerged in early-April: Tariff Headlines Recession Fears Stagflation Fears Those have lead to Extreme Capitulation and Fear, which made the average retail investor at least increase his cash position to prepare for lower prices. Now that's also when I publicly said I had the lowest cash positions since the 2022 bear market lows, because it was the PERFECT opportunity to accumulate. (Read here post from early-April: https://t.co/VQg1o5lbHb) "Well, that's interesting, but how does it help me?" You might wonder. Let's talk about how we reversed since we bottomed in early-April. Since early-April, we did not have any substantial pullback, instead we had shallow consolidation phases that have preceded each of the moves up so far. Do you know why that happened? It's because it doesn't give sideliners the opportunity to entry lower. Because let's say you sold in early-April, then you look at $BTC going up and you say "Well, I'm not going to buy here, after it pumped, I'm gonna wait for a dip." So wait, then the prices keep climbing higher and higher, until there is an actual substantial dip. This is the phase we're currently at, the phase of the first substantial dip. And you might think that the sideliners who exited at the bottom would buy, right? Well, your reasoning is right, but you would be wrong, because that's not how human psychology works. They have gotten used to their bearish bias since exiting the bottom, so now, they have shifted their stance towards chasing confirmation narratives: WW3 Tariff Headlines Prolonged Consolidation Phase Historical Q3 Weakness Correlation with 2021 Fractal Cycle Top Correlations with 2023 Range And many other narratives that confirm their own bearish bias. Why? Why is still all happening? Why are market makers intentionally keeping most retail on the side? Well, let's remember what happened before we bottomed in early-April. Market makers used retail as a counterparty to accumulate. I believe that this phase relates exactly to that, to market makers having a counterparty, but this time, to distribute everything that they have accumulated so far. But first, they have to induce fear, they have to make retail believe we're headed lower and that we're going to see the prolonged consolidation phase and buying opportunity like we've seen in 2023 and 2024. However, we're in a Post-Halving Year and historically, the Q3 Weakness doesn't apply. Take for example ALL the post-halving years so far: 2013, 2017, 2021. . But everyone believes we're going to see a boring summer, everyone thinks they are going to have the buying opportunity they so much desire. That's why I think that in the coming weeks, we'll have one of the biggest Emotional Gaps we've ever seen on Bitcoin. The first time I covered the Emotional Gap thesis was back in September of 2024 and I used the same argument, that market makers would have to distribute. (See here my post from September: https://t.co/7sRHl5QyQN) Now, I think they'll do it once again, but of course, they'll need a strong narrative, as always. So let's think about one of the strongest macroeconomic catalysts that is currently priced in about 2 months. Rate-Cuts. The markets are currently pricing in the next rate-cut in September and considering the fact that the CPI YoY has had 3 consecutive readings below 2.5%, it signals that it has durably cooled off, which I believe that in the coming weeks the Fed will declare their victory against inflation, which will lead to the end of their quantitative tightening policies as well. . That is the catalyst I believe will send the market into an absolute frenzy. Everyone screaming, from the top of their lungs: "Quantitative Easing is coming" "Upcoming Rate Cuts" "Cheap Liquidity Coming" "Supercycle Coming" "Extended 5th Coming" "Commodities Supercycle" "Correlations with $GOLD" All of these narratives will act as the transition from the current state of disbelief and uncertainty to a state of full blown euphoria. Market makers will use this extreme FOMO to distribute. They'll use all of these narratives to distribute. This is what it all comes down to: Liquidity and Market Makers. On top of that, looking at market cycles and liquidity rotations, I expect traditional indices like the $SPX, $QQQ, and $DJI to lag behind risk assets from here. As we approach the cycle peak, riskier assets usually start to run faster. And this is something that a lot of people seem to know, but their reasoning is most of the times incorrect. I believe that what leads to the rotation into risk-assets isn’t the cycle itself, or simply that traditional, “safer” equities top out, but the RISK-APPETITE of investors. When the risk-appetite spikes, driving traders into high-beta names, small caps, altcoins, and leveraged plays, it creates the perfect sales environment. Market makers watch for that euphoria, then use this very high RISK-APPETITE to DISTRIBUTE the positions they’ve quietly accumulated. In other words, demand for risk is the true catalyst behind cycle tops and distribution phase. This is why I’ve said before that watching $BTC.D's strength is key to knowing if Bitcoin’s cycle peak is in. You might think “This cycle’s different because of ETFs,” but that’s a red herring. It’s not ETFs driving the cycle, it’s retail FOMO. When traders see altcoins pumping 20–30% and chase those quick gains, they sell Bitcoin to jump into alts. That shift drags down $BTC.D and leads to an altseason. So it all comes down to the risk-appetite and the narrative that is being fed. That’s why I see this pullback as a good buying opportunity, probably the last clear entry before the next big leg up. Now don't get me wrong, Bitcoin could certainly dip further, especially on lower timeframes where leveraged traders get flushed out. But the risk/reward outlook looks to me like it's favor of the buyer. I’m tracking on-chain flows, market structure, Elliott Wave counts, cycle and seasonality (as we’re heading into a historically strong period), technical signals, sentiment, and more, and they all point to a high-probability setup here. This high-probability setup is a bullish reversal. I could go on and rumble on this for days, but I think it's enough for a thread. This is my overall approach and positioning moving forward. I’ll be dropping a subscriber-exclusive deep dive on the exact $BTC levels I’m watching, my take on this corrective Wave 2, and how I’m reading the low-timeframe moves. Check out the link below so you don't miss out: https://t.co/8GVc6z603m

CrypticTrades_'s tweet photo. $BTC - It's time for our Weekend Update, because it's gonna take the whole weekend to read this! 😂

Oh boy, this is gonna be a long one.

Alright, the first things right now for Bitcoin is that we're in a weak seasonality period, where often times, the price is either flat, or in a slight downtrend, like we're seeing right now.

Most of the times, there are multiple things that align which lead to a certain type of price action, like in this case, confluences we have analyzed:

On-Chain Data(late longs that piled in),

Elliott Wave Standpoint (we're in a corrective wave 2),

Market Structure (Failed to form a new high on June 10th and entered a LL and LH market structure)

Now, the real question, what does this pullback lead to.

That's a far more valuable question.

Because I think that this is creating the PERFECT environment for a bullish reversal, and let me explain why:

Think about all the narratives that have emerged over the past few days, all the uncertainties, all the fears.

Why is this happening, or rather why is this happening right now?

Why is it that instead of seeing euphoria, we're seeing fear, even though the price is well above $100K?

Well, to answer that question, we need to go more in the past.

We need to go to a thread I've shared back in March of how market makers have used Liquidity Traps and Liquidation Cascades to accumulate and to force a counterparty out of retail trades.

(Pause this thread and read the one from March: https://t.co/HCXyBnFny9)

Alright, now that you're familiar with that concept, let's think about what narratives emerged in early-April:

Tariff Headlines

Recession Fears

Stagflation Fears

Those have lead to Extreme Capitulation and Fear, which made the average retail investor at least increase his cash position to prepare for lower prices.

Now that's also when I publicly said I had the lowest cash positions since the 2022 bear market lows, because it was the PERFECT opportunity to accumulate.

(Read here post from early-April: https://t.co/VQg1o5lbHb)

"Well, that's interesting, but how does it help me?" You might wonder.

Let's talk about how we reversed since we bottomed in early-April.

Since early-April, we did not have any substantial pullback, instead we had shallow consolidation phases that have preceded each of the moves up so far.

Do you know why that happened?

It's because it doesn't give sideliners the opportunity to entry lower.

Because let's say you sold in early-April, then you look at $BTC going up and you say "Well, I'm not going to buy here, after it pumped, I'm gonna wait for a dip."

So wait, then the prices keep climbing higher and higher, until there is an actual substantial dip.

This is the phase we're currently at, the phase of the first substantial dip.

And you might think that the sideliners who exited at the bottom would buy, right?

Well, your reasoning is right, but you would be wrong, because that's not how human psychology works.

They have gotten used to their bearish bias since exiting the bottom, so now, they have shifted their stance towards chasing confirmation narratives:

WW3

Tariff Headlines

Prolonged Consolidation Phase

Historical Q3 Weakness

Correlation with 2021 Fractal Cycle Top

Correlations with 2023 Range

And many other narratives that confirm their own bearish bias. Why?

Why is still all happening? Why are market makers intentionally keeping most retail on the side?

Well, let's remember what happened before we bottomed in early-April.

Market makers used retail as a counterparty to accumulate.

I believe that this phase relates exactly to that, to market makers having a counterparty, but this time, to distribute everything that they have accumulated so far.

But first, they have to induce fear, they have to make retail believe we're headed lower and that we're going to see the prolonged consolidation phase and buying opportunity like we've seen in 2023 and 2024.

However, we're in a Post-Halving Year and historically, the Q3 Weakness doesn't apply.

Take for example ALL the post-halving years so far: 2013, 2017, 2021.

.

But everyone believes we're going to see a boring summer, everyone thinks they are going to have the buying opportunity they so much desire.

That's why I think that in the coming weeks, we'll have one of the biggest Emotional Gaps we've ever seen on Bitcoin.

The first time I covered the Emotional Gap thesis was back in September of 2024 and I used the same argument, that market makers would have to distribute.

(See here my post from September: https://t.co/7sRHl5QyQN)

Now, I think they'll do it once again, but of course, they'll need a strong narrative, as always.

So let's think about one of the strongest macroeconomic catalysts that is currently priced in about 2 months.

Rate-Cuts.

The markets are currently pricing in the next rate-cut in September and considering the fact that the CPI YoY has had 3 consecutive readings below 2.5%, it signals that it has durably cooled off, which I believe that in the coming weeks the Fed will declare their victory against inflation, which will lead to the end of their quantitative tightening policies as well.

.

That is the catalyst I believe will send the market into an absolute frenzy.

Everyone screaming, from the top of their lungs:

"Quantitative Easing is coming"

"Upcoming Rate Cuts"

"Cheap Liquidity Coming"

"Supercycle Coming"

"Extended 5th Coming"

"Commodities Supercycle"

"Correlations with $GOLD"

All of these narratives will act as the transition from the current state of disbelief and uncertainty to a state of full blown euphoria.

Market makers will use this extreme FOMO to distribute.

They'll use all of these narratives to distribute.

This is what it all comes down to: Liquidity and Market Makers.

On top of that, looking at market cycles and liquidity rotations, I expect traditional indices like the $SPX, $QQQ, and $DJI to lag behind risk assets from here.

As we approach the cycle peak, riskier assets usually start to run faster.

And this is something that a lot of people seem to know, but their reasoning is most of the times incorrect.

I believe that what leads to the rotation into risk-assets isn’t the cycle itself, or simply that traditional, “safer” equities top out, but the RISK-APPETITE of investors.

When the risk-appetite spikes, driving traders into high-beta names, small caps, altcoins, and leveraged plays, it creates the perfect sales environment.

Market makers watch for that euphoria, then use this very high RISK-APPETITE to DISTRIBUTE the positions they’ve quietly accumulated.

In other words, demand for risk is the true catalyst behind cycle tops and distribution phase.

This is why I’ve said before that watching $BTC.D's strength is key to knowing if Bitcoin’s cycle peak is in.

You might think “This cycle’s different because of ETFs,” but that’s a red herring. It’s not ETFs driving the cycle, it’s retail FOMO.

When traders see altcoins pumping 20–30% and chase those quick gains, they sell Bitcoin to jump into alts.

That shift drags down $BTC.D and leads to an altseason.

So it all comes down to the risk-appetite and the narrative that is being fed.

That’s why I see this pullback as a good buying opportunity, probably the last clear entry before the next big leg up.

Now don't get me wrong, Bitcoin could certainly dip further, especially on lower timeframes where leveraged traders get flushed out.

But the risk/reward outlook looks to me like it's favor of the buyer.

I’m tracking on-chain flows, market structure, Elliott Wave counts, cycle and seasonality (as we’re heading into a historically strong period), technical signals, sentiment, and more, and they all point to a high-probability setup here.

This high-probability setup is a bullish reversal.

I could go on and rumble on this for days, but I think it's enough for a thread. This is my overall approach and positioning moving forward.

I’ll be dropping a subscriber-exclusive deep dive on the exact $BTC levels I’m watching, my take on this corrective Wave 2, and how I’m reading the low-timeframe moves.

Check out the link below so you don't miss out:

https://t.co/8GVc6z603m

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about 1 year ago

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NowYouSee 👀 @GhoorbinSteven

about 1 year ago

Just subscribed to @CrypticTrades_ for a month to test the value behind the paywall. Your free content has already offered consistent value and solid insights — enough to earn this trial. Now let’s see if the premium side overdelivers. Wishing you all the best, Luca. Cheers