Most people have no idea what’s actually happening right now…
Japan’s 10 year yield broke 3% today. First time since 1996.
The US Treasury Secretary is the reason.
Bessent at the G20: “I have information that the market doesn’t have, and it’s my belief that the Japanese government and the BOJ will do the things that will lead to a stronger yen.”
Asked if he meant hikes, he said the market’s already pricing it.
BOJ meets September 17-18. Sources say they’re going, and considering moving faster than twice a year after that.
Japan has been the world’s cheap funding source for 20 years. Borrow yen at nothing, buy assets somewhere else.
Every hike makes that position more expensive to hold. And it doesn’t unwind in Tokyo, it unwinds in whatever got bought with the money.
August 2024 was the small version.
Warsh hinted at hikes here on Friday. The 30 year is at 5.29%. Now the US is pushing Japan to tighten too.
If you want to know where I’m deploying capital, turn notifications on. A lot of people will regret not doing it.