Giga Chad

Crypto market analyst @ Check out my Youtube channel

[Veles @velesxbt]

In 1984 a guy got kicked out of every casino in Vegas for counting cards. So he flew to Hong Kong with $150,000 and started betting on horses instead. He walked away with almost a billion dollars.

It's Bill Benter. He figured horse racing was just another counting problem. Same math, more moving parts.

He and a partner showed up with $150k and a computer. Benter spent years teaching that computer to guess one thing: the real chance each horse had to win. If his number was better than the odds the bookies gave, he bet. If not, he skipped it.

That's the whole trick. Expected value:

EV = p · b - (1 - p)

Only bet when your win chance p, at odds b, is worth more than your chance of losing. That's it.

None of this was secret. What Benter used is the first probability lecture at MIT - the clip here, Professor Tsitsiklis writing the basic rules on the board. Freshman stuff.

Now people call it a "one-person hedge fund" and sell you a bot to run it. Same edge. It was always just the math nobody bothered to learn.

[Amit @HeyAmit_]

MIT professor Patrick Winston literally gave a 1-hour masterclass on communication that teaches you how to speak better than most schools ever could.

[Anatoli Kopadze @AnatoliKopadze]

NVIDIA CEO, Jensen Huang:

"Nobody writes prompts anymore, the new job is building Loops and Graphs."

In 50 minutes he breaks down what replaced prompting and why most people haven't caught on yet.

It's the difference between using AI and having AI work for you.

Watch it, then read the guide below on how to build a system that improves itself.

[Bitcoin Magazine @BitcoinMagazine]

JUST IN: More than 50% of BTC is underwater, which usually marks a bear market bottom. 👀

HODL ✊

[The Bitcoin Historian @pete_rizzo_]

JUST IN: ADAM BACK JUST WARNED THE AI BUBBLE IS ABOUT TO BURSE AND SEND BILLIONS ROTATING BACK INTO #BITCOIN

"ONCE THEY TAKE THE PROFIT, THIS CAPITAL WILL FLOW BACK TO BTC"

"SPACEX IS ALREADY DOWN FROM ITS HIGHS"

BTC BREAKOUT. MATTER OF TIME 🚀

[Lyn Alden @LynAldenContact]

My bullish/bearish take on bitcoin is that we shouldn’t blame any entity for buying too much of it, because if bitcoin can be killed by an entity buying it, then it wasn’t meant to be.

If all it takes to kill bitcoin is a bullish entity that likes it enough to buy, then go home.

[Coin Bureau @coinbureau]

🚨 $ADA DORMANT WALLETS ARE WAKING UP

Santiment data shows Cardano just saw its biggest ADA Age Consumed spike since April, suggesting dormant supply is finally becoming active.

[Rohit @heyrohitai]

🚨 Anthropic just showed a 27-minute workshop on how to actually do prompts for Claude.

Taught by the people who built it.

Free. No registration. No paywall.

I've seen $300 courses that don't cover what they teach in the first 8 minutes.

Watch it and bookmark it now.

[Reflection🪩 @0xReflection]

🚨 THE US REGULATORY SYSTEM JUST BROKE

In 48 hours, SpaceX goes public at $1.77 TRILLION - the biggest IPO ever

I've been trading for over a decade, and I have never seen them rewrite the rulebook like this

Nasdaq, MSCI, and the biggest brokers in America all bent their own rules for ONE private company

That doesn't happen by accident

Let me show you exactly what they did:

First, Fidelity dropped its minimum account size from $500,000 to $2,000

A 99.6% cut

Think about that:

The most exclusive door on Wall Street, thrown wide open to millions of small investors - days before the biggest debut in history.

Ask yourself one question

Why do they suddenly want YOU in?

Because somebody needs people to sell to.

SpaceX reserved 30% of the deal for retail

THREE TIMES the normal share

And even then, most people didn't get a full allocation.

So to grab more at Thursday's open, they're dumping everything else TODAY to raise cash.

That's half of the selling you're seeing.

The other half? The smart money front-running July.

Here's the trick:

SpaceX doesn't join the Nasdaq 100 on day one.

It joins 15 days later, because Nasdaq cut its own waiting period from 3 months to 15 days

Just for this.

The moment it joins, every QQQ fund on Earth is FORCED to buy.

$22–27 billion in automatic buying.

Translation: imagine 50 buses all forced to pull into the same gas station on the same morning.

The funds know the stampede is coming.

So they're selling now to free up cash for it. Retail selling. Institutions selling. At the exact same time.

THAT is your selloff.

Now here's the part nobody will say out loud:

When the most connected money on the planet builds a $1.7T exit door and hands the keys to the smallest investors in the market…

That's NOT generosity

That's distribution at the top.

We've seen this movie twice:

➮ 2000 Dotcom
➮ 2021 SPAC mania

Insiders cash out at insane valuations while the crowd chases the hype.

The math ain't mathing.

So you've got two choices in the next 48 hours:

Chase the most expensive IPO in history at the open…

Or read the prospectus and realize you might BE the exit.

The next few days will be INSANE, but don't worry - I'll break down every move as it happens, like I always do.

Like it or not, I called every major top and bottom of the last decade publicly. I'll call this one too.

Many people are going to wish they followed me before June 12, 2026.

Soon, you'll understand why.

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

I love the cadence of this chart

Bitcoin % of Supply in Profit/Loss

As I said previously, you start looking for major market cycle bottoms *after* they cross, not before.

They just crossed.

Such a great chart for keeping people on the right side of the market in midterm years

[Crypto Tony @CryptoTony__]

🚨 JUST IN : INSIDERS HAVE BEGAN TO MASSIVELY DUMP EVERYTHING EXCEPT OIL RIGHT AHEAD OF THE U.S. MARKET OPEN ON MONDAY!

EVERY SINGLE INSIDER IS SELLING BILLIONS NONSTOP:

0 BUYS. 1,382 SELLS. $13.58 BILLION IN VOLUME.

NOT GOOD NEWS FOR THE MARKETS

[Duo Nine ⚡ YCC @duonine]

🚨 I don't think people realize how bad things are at @aave right now.

All core markets are at 100% utilization, that includes $3 bil in USDT and $2 bil in USDC stuck!

That means you CAN'T WITHDRAW your money!

A long post on why and how we ended up here.

When the rsETH exploit happened and AAVE incurred bad debt, whales like Justin Sun, MEXC exchange, and others immediately withdrew billions from AAVE.

This instantly drained all available liquidity in key core markets like ETH, USDT, USDC and so on. Those first to withdraw got out, laggers got trapped.

Initially, the ETH market hit 100% utilization, meaning you could not withdraw your ETH from AAVE.

Worse, this also means the protocol can't process ETH liquidations should ETH price fall/crash. If you can't sell any ETH, you can't liquidate to cover debt obligations.

That means the risk of more bad debt incurred by AAVE is increasing the longer its markets remain stuck.

Nevertheless, users can still sell at a minor loss the aETHwETH tokens on Uniswap or similar aggregators. That exit door is the last one remaining for ETH depositors on AAVE.

The same cannot be said by depositors of USDT and USDC. They are stuck.

That's because AAVE lost over $6 billion in liquidity in the past 24h. As whales took out their money, USDT and USDC also hit 100% utilization.

These markets are now also stuck with money locked. Panic is spreading and desperate times call for desperate measures.

Some users decided to borrow against USDT/USDC and exit via other markets at a 10-25% loss (90-75% LTV). Basically you borrow GHO/DAI/USDe against your locked USDT/C.

But as more liquidity leaves AAVE, more markets get to 100% utilization and get locked/stuck due to low liquidity. This is quickly cascading across all available markets.

Luckily the crypto market was rather flat today so liquidation risks were marginal, but if things change there are billions in stablecoins and other assets locked on AAVE that can't process liquidations = more bad debt for AAVE.

If users or related protocols that are stuck need access to their money to prevent liquidations or other critical function, they have a huge problem on their hands.

Plus, nobody wants to deposit (or provide liquidity) in these markets now since your ETH, BTC, USDC/T could be stuck there for who know how long.

As soon as any available liquidity is made available, it is instantly taken out by bots fighting to get out. As I wrote this I saw 250k in liquidity on USDC vanish in seconds.

Then there is the bad debt question.

There's over $200 mil in bad debt incurred by AAVE via rsETH that's like a hot potato. Nobody knows who will eventually pay this bill.

If you didn't remove your assets from AAVE, you risk receiving at least part of that bill in some form. Not having access to your money is part of that risk too.

Contagion is also extremely high.

Many protocols and apps rely on AAVE for their earn mechanics. These protocols and their users are stuck too and may be forced to incur bad debt with no fault of their own.

October 10th was a CEX driven crash, this is a DeFi risk mitigation failure of epic proportions.

AAVE should have never onboarded rsETH as a collateral asset, at least not to the size of hundreds of millions that allowed the hacker to walk away (i.e. borrow) over $200M in ETH after posting fake collateral.

Rumors on X are saying rsETH was onboarded by AAVE due to a conflict of interest (lobbying) by a given service provider. If true, this is a major failure of its governance structure (nothing new).

The folks at @KelpDAO who manage rsETH also have a tough decision to make on who will actually pay for the $200M exploit. AAVE users? L2 rsETH users? Everyone affected gets a haircut to account for the loss?

The AAVE team and its founder, Stani, have been quiet for over 20h since the exploit after initially announcing the rsETH market freeze.

They have a pretty big problem on their hands since the whole protocol is at risk right now. Trust is already lost as AAVE is bleeding billions in TVL to the level of hitting 100% utilization on all core markets.

Maybe some key actors in the space will step in to provide liquidity to stabilize the markets on AAVE before this gets even worse.

I got lucky to get out of AAVE early when I first saw this. I also removed all assets from DeFi and will not touch any protocol in the next few weeks. Too much risk for a few percentage points in yield.

If you found this informative, like, share, and follow @duonine

[Coin Bureau @coinbureau]

⚠️ALERT: $AAVE is now down -19% today after a $292M Kelp DAO rsETH exploit triggered a full-blown liquidity crisis.

Aave's ETH pool just hit 100% utilization. That means one thing: there's almost no ETH left to withdraw.

Here's what happened:

Attacker drained 116,500 rsETH ($292M) from Kelp DAO's LayerZero bridge

He then deposited the stolen rsETH as collateral on Aave V3 to borrow ~$236M in WETH.

Because the rsETH is now unbacked, those positions are unliquidatable.

Aave is now stuck with ~$280M in bad debt it cannot recover.

Panic withdrawals have followed: $5.4 BILLION in $ETH outflows, with Justin Sun pulling 65,584 ETH ($154M) alone.

ETH utilization has maxed out at 100%, which means there's almost no ETH left to withdraw.

This is the FIRST real-world test of Aave's Umbrella safety module & the BIGGEST DeFi exploit of 2026.

This is a developing story.

[Mindset for Money @Mindset4Money_X]

Bro this Chamath clip 😂😂

Watch the whole thing, trust me

[Reflection🪩 @0xReflection]

Hope you all learned your lesson

[Beardo @BeardoTrader]

The dot-com bubble overlayed on today's $SPY chart.