The release of all political prisoners in #Belarus is essential. But it is not enough.
Since 2025, more than 600 new political prisoners have appeared, despite the release of hundreds of others. This is the reality of a system built on repression: as long as the machinery remains intact, empty prison cells will be filled again.
There will never be enough sanctions to sustain this grim business model indefinitely. The regime has virtually unlimited resources to persecute, intimidate and silence. It targets not only those who speak out, but their families as well.
And we only know part of the story. People are held incommunicado. Information is hidden. Relatives are threatened into silence. Names disappear from public view. We do not know all those imprisoned for political reasons today - and if repression continues, we may never know all of them tomorrow.
Prisons are only one part of the system. Repression also means house arrest, forced psychiatric or alcohol "treatment", dismissal from work, pressure to collaborate with the KGB, surveillance, restrictions after release and countless other forms of control.
I do not like dramatic slogans such as calling Belarus an "open-air prison". But Belarus is moving toward something equally alarming: a totalitarian state where no alternative opinion is allowed to exist publicly.
Society itself is not totalitarian. People continue to distinguish propaganda from reality. Independent information still reaches the country. Many Belarusians continue to resist, even if quietly. And maintaining opportunities for Belarusians to stay connected to Europe remains critically important.
Here are the goals I see:
Release all political prisoners.
Stop repression.
Bring about democratic change.
Because if repression continues, new prisoners will replace those who are freed. And a totalitarian state on the border of the EU and NATO will not bring stability to Europe.
Freedom for all prisoners is the beginning. Ending repression is the real test.
I can't, can't, can't listen to complaints and hopelessness anymore.
I come from a country that is probably the last place on earth that should be giving anyone hope. And yet, I often feel like I'm the only person in the room who knows what to do and is prepared for the worst.
Fine. Let's just get back to work.
Meanwhile, in countries with elections, separation of powers, and free media - despite all the attacks on those systems - people tell me they're not optimistic, that they're frustrated.
I'm not the most diplomatic person, so forgive me (or don't), but how is frustration helpful? So what?
I think we should focus on what can actually be done: define our goals clearly and then work toward them, step by step.
The funny thing is, I'm far from naive. I know exactly how bad things can get. Maybe that's precisely why I don't see despair as a strategy.
Whenever I hear someone say "the EU is weak," I'm reminded how closely that echoes pro-Lukashenka propaganda: portraying the EU as divided, with the goal of weakening it from within. Paradoxically, it's mocked precisely because it still holds - and because unity is strength.
One of the strangest arguments I keep hearing about #Belarus is that sanctions "don't work."
Sanctions are not magic. They do not produce overnight regime change. Their purpose is to raise the economic, political and technological costs of repression, aggression and isolation. Success is not only measured by whether a regime collapses. It can also be measured by reduced access to finance, technology, investment, international legitimacy and strategic choices.
Critics often demand impossible standards: if sanctions don't immediately remove a ruler from power, they are declared a failure. But nobody applies the same standard to diplomacy, negotiations or international institutions.
In Belarus, sanctions were never going to create instant political transformation. The real question is whether they have increased the cost of repression, constrained economic opportunities and signaled that political prisoners, election fraud and state violence carry consequences. Looking at Belarus's reduced access to Western markets, financial restrictions and international isolation, it is difficult to argue that sanctions have had no effect.
It's better to discuss if sanctions are designed well, coordinated effectively and paired with a broader political strategy. Dismissing them outright ignores both history and reality.
How Russia, China and other dictatorships around the world have coalesced to promote autocracy - and how some Americans and Europeans help them
Excerpt from my forthcoming book, in @TheAtlantic
https://t.co/1jaY9T2cgT
My last job was advising a Cabinet Minister. In this job, I seek lots of advice. So what makes a trusted adviser? Here are the 10 qualities I think you need:
To clarify once again: Restore Trust is NOT part of the National Trust. Restore Trust is the trading name for RT2021Ltd, a private company. This is really important. Please challenge this claim when you see it in their corporate communications. Please RT.
Today koalas in two Australian states - NSW and QLD - were officially listed as endangered.
They are endangered, largely, because we allow the trees they live in to be destroyed. We urgently need laws to protect koala habitat from deforestation, from logging & clearing.
I’ve said it before and will keep saying it. We need to work for a political culture where facts are facts, where nuance is valued, differences respected, good ideas not rejected just because they are from the other side