Gillquist

[Gillquist @Gillquist]

@Chansarmest1 Ja och det roliga är ju att har man tagit pengar de senaste åren har resterande del kompenserat uttaget ganska fort. Inser att det kan/kommer ändras men kombinationen bibevarat värde och livskvalitet är ganska tillfredsställande.

[Gillquist @Gillquist]

Hittade en ny kul pryl, tortilla press, till köket. Nu gör jag inte tortilla men carpaccio med den. I kväll på lax med en riktigt bra grönsaksröra på Ingefära, schalottenlök, salladslök, vitlök, röd chili, jalapeno, dill, korianderstjälkar, lätt frästa. Några trekanter smörstekt bröd till. Lätt enkelt och så dj.. gott.

[Gillquist @Gillquist]

@__M___A___X__ Med el-start? Mycket smidigt.

[Gillquist @Gillquist]

@Johan_Elmquist Satte just en Himrod druva. Ska klä in en pergola om fem år eller så.

[Gillquist @Gillquist]

@Chansarmest1 Det är jag också men fa.. den som ger sig.

[Gillquist @Gillquist]

@__M___A___X__ Går in på listan att köpa hem. Vore kul att pröva vid tillfälle.

[Gillquist @Gillquist]

@NordnetAra Har kört Le Creuset i 10 år, köpt ny en gång under tiden. Har några Skeppshult gjutjärn för hårdare stekning av kött. Allt jag behöver.

https://t.co/6bYvMD27LD

[Gillquist @Gillquist]

@alden_niklas Grattis till trean Niklas och fru! Är så imponerad av kvinnor som föder, det är ingen dans på rosor. Det var längesedan för oss men ett av de starkaste minnena jag har.

[Gillquist @Gillquist]

@C130RDTS Lite så kanske

[Gillquist @Gillquist]

@Pro_Tradings Bra val, gjorde det samma. Varför lägga 10xk på en robot och sedan stora pengar på gymkort. Dessutom ingår ju en kall bira efter gräsklippning.

[Gillquist @Gillquist]

Tror Du har helt rätt. Frågade min @borsdata Gemini chat MCP vad den tyckte, den var positiv. Köpte en sudd för byrålådan, ska bli kul att följa upp under året.

### The Verdict You were originally looking to "gamble" on an earnings surprise before the report when the stock was at $430+ and priced for perfection. Holding off was the right move. Now that the "perfect" expectations have been reset and the "weak hands" have sold off due to CapEx fears, buying shares in the $400 - $410 range offers a much better Risk/Reward profile. It is no longer a short-term gamble; it is an opportunity to buy a generational compounder at a 6% discount and a historically normalized valuation.

Frågade också om kommande 6 månader:

### Summary: You are looking at a rare window to accumulate Microsoft at a reasonable valuation. The next 60 days might be choppy and boring, but the setup for late summer and autumn is incredibly potent.

[Gillquist @Gillquist]

@furupilen Det intresset och driven är guld. Moderera med lite diskussion så blir det kanon. Känner jag dig rätt är det redan igång.

[Gillquist @Gillquist]

Frågade den: So what is your prediction för the coming 6 month?
Tydligen gillar den mitt entry, ska bli sk..t kul att följa under året. Man kan ju bara hoppas den har rätt.

Based on current market data, analyst consensus, and upcoming catalysts as of mid-May 2026, my 6-month prediction for Microsoft is a two-phase recovery: near-term consolidation followed by a strong breakout in the fall.

I expect the stock to drift in a "show-me" phase for the next 1–2 months, before beginning a steady climb toward the $480–$500 range by November 2026.

Here is the step-by-step rationale for how the next six months are likely to play out:

### Phase 1: The "Show-Me" Consolidation (May – July)
Prediction: Trading sideways in the $400 – $440 range.
Right now, Wall Street is still digesting the "CapEx shock" from the last earnings report. The market knows Microsoft's $190 billion infrastructure buildout is necessary, but institutional investors hate seeing free cash flow drop.
* During this period, the stock will likely be range-bound.
* The valuation floor is incredibly strong right now. Trading at roughly 22x to 24x forward earnings, Microsoft is at its cheapest valuation multiple since early 2023. This limits further downside risk unless the broader macroeconomic environment (like inflation or interest rates) collapses.

### Phase 2: The Catalyst-Driven Breakout (August – November)
Prediction: Grinding higher toward $480 – $500+.
As we move into the second half of 2026, the narrative will shift away from *how much* Microsoft is spending, and toward *what that spending is generating*. Several massive catalysts converge in this 6-month window:

1. Azure Growth Acceleration (July/October Earnings): Microsoft has signaled that they actually have a "capacity gap"—meaning there is more demand for AI compute than they currently have servers for. As the data centers they are building right now come online in the second half of the year, Azure revenue growth is expected to accelerate back above 40%. When Wall Street sees the revenue matching the CapEx, the stock will re-rate higher.
2. The Windows PC Refresh Cycle (October 2026): Microsoft officially ends support for Windows 10 in October 2026. This is going to force a massive, global hardware refresh cycle for corporate IT departments. They will be buying new "AI PCs," which will provide a massive, sudden revenue boost to Microsoft's "More Personal Computing" segment.
3. Microsoft Ignite & "Agentic AI" (November 2026): Microsoft's massive Ignite conference in mid-November is shaping up to be a major stock catalyst. They are shifting Copilot from a flat subscription to a highly profitable, usage-based "AI Agent" model. Furthermore, the market expects the first official roadmap for the next generation of Windows (rumored as "Hudson Valley" / Windows 12).

### Wall Street's View vs. My Projection
It is worth noting that my 6-month target of $480–$500 is actually quite conservative compared to Wall Street consensus. Currently, roughly 95% of analysts maintain a "Strong Buy" rating on the stock, with an average 12-month price target of $570 to $595 (implying roughly 40% upside from today's $410 level).

### The Main Risks to this Outlook
The only things that derail this bullish 6-month outlook are:
* Margin Compression: If the depreciation costs on all these new AI servers drag operating margins down below 43%, Wall Street may punish the stock again in July.
* Macro Weakness: If enterprise customers suddenly slash their IT budgets due to an unexpected recession, the Windows PC refresh cycle and Copilot adoption could be delayed until 2027.

Summary: You are looking at a rare window to accumulate Microsoft at a reasonable valuation. The next 60 days might be choppy and boring, but the setup for late summer and autumn is incredibly potent.

[Gillquist @Gillquist]

Frågade min @Borsdata Chat MCP om det var läge att fylla på MSFT nu efter en riktigt bra Q3 rapport men med en fallande kurs. Resonemanget är väl ganska känt men kul att få det serverat på ett fat. Köpte en sudd för byrålådan - ska bli kul att utvärdera svaret över tid.

Yes, your observation is spot-on. Microsoft released its Q3 FY26 earnings on April 29, 2026, and the headline numbers were genuinely fantastic. However, the stock was punished anyway, dropping from its pre-earnings high of ~$433 down to current levels around $407.

Here is exactly what happened under the hood, why the market reacted negatively to a "good" report, and whether this makes for a good buying opportunity.

### Why did the stock drop on good earnings?
The market reaction was not about Microsoft's *current* performance, which was excellent (Revenue up 18%, EPS up 21%, and Azure cloud growth hitting an incredible 40%). Instead, the stock fell because of the rising cost of future growth.

1. Massive AI Spending (CapEx): The biggest shock to Wall Street was Microsoft's guidance for Capital Expenditures. Management projected full-year CapEx to hit $190 billion (a 61% increase year-over-year). Wall Street was only expecting about $155 billion. Building AI data centers, securing power, and buying chips is incredibly expensive.
2. Falling Free Cash Flow: Because Microsoft is spending so aggressively on AI infrastructure, their Free Cash Flow actually *fell* 22% year-over-year.
3. Margin Pressure: Management warned that operating margins will tick down slightly next quarter because the heavy depreciation costs of all these new servers and data centers are starting to eat into the bottom line.

In short: The market shifted from blindly rewarding "AI hype" to demanding a faster return on investment. Investors are worried that Microsoft is spending billions today that might take years to translate into actual cash returns.

### Should you buy the stock now?
If you are looking at a long-term hold (3+ years), this post-earnings slide is creating a highly attractive setup for a few reasons:

* Valuation has cooled off: Before the earnings report, Microsoft was trading at a massive premium (a Price-to-Earnings ratio of around 35x to 37x). Because earnings just jumped 21% while the stock price fell to $407, the multiple has compressed significantly. Current data shows the trailing P/E ratio has dropped into the 24x – 25x range. This is one of the most reasonable valuations Microsoft has seen in over a year.
* The Moat is Expanding: While Wall Street hates the short-term cost of that $190 billion CapEx bill, this massive spending is effectively building an insurmountable moat. Very few companies on earth can afford to spend nearly $200 billion in a single year to dominate the future of computing.
* The "Value Trap" Check: Microsoft's fundamentals have not deteriorated; they are just investing aggressively. The core business (Office 365, Azure, Windows) is a cash-printing machine that easily funds this AI buildout.

### The Verdict
You were originally looking to "gamble" on an earnings surprise before the report when the stock was at $430+ and priced for perfection. Holding off was the right move.

Now that the "perfect" expectations have been reset and the "weak hands" have sold off due to CapEx fears, buying shares in the $400 - $410 range offers a much better Risk/Reward profile. It is no longer a short-term gamble; it is an opportunity to buy a generational compounder at a 6% discount and a historically normalized valuation.

[Gillquist @Gillquist]

@a_passiv_invest Man tar fram stora saxen och klipper upp sk…ten

[Gillquist @Gillquist]

@Byggtrader Snyggt, det är väl just det som skiljer ett proffs från mig som amatör. Gjorde en hel del sådant förra vintern/våren, med ett anlitat proffs. Riktigt nöjd.

[Gillquist @Gillquist]

@PihlOla @ibindex Jo, även om jag tror hon kommer lösa det själv innan dess. Kanske marginal för barnbarn, vi får se.