Gireesh

Data science professional, who loves to make predictions.
Analyzing #TN2026 at

[Gireesh @GireeshS22]

🚨 VOTELYTICS V4 Predictions are LIVE! 🚨

Our most advanced AI model yet — GPT-4.5 with high-effort reasoning — has re-analyzed all 234 Tamil Nadu constituencies for 2026.

📊 V4 Final Seat Projections:
🔴 DMK+: 128 seats
🟢 AIADMK+: 68 seats
⚪ Toss-up: 38 seats
(Majority: 117 seats)

🔄 How We Got Here — Prediction Evolution:
V1 (Nov 2025): AIADMK+ leading
V2 (Jan 2026): AIADMK+ narrows gap
V3 (Mar 2026): DMK+ pulls ahead
V4 (Apr 2026): DMK+ holds firm ✅

Each constituency page shows a live V1→V2→V3→V4 trend line — watch how each alliance's fortunes shifted over 5 months.

🔍 Deep Dive Highlights (new article page!):
• 38 razor-thin toss-up seats — any swing can flip the final result
• TVK (Vijay's party) is a spoiler in 10+ key seats — TVK vote share EXCEEDS the winning margin
• BJP contesting 27 seats — detailed head-to-head vs DMK & INC
• District-level breakdown across all 38 districts
• Party-wise vote share: who's eating whose votes?

🧠 What's new in V4:
✓ Real 2026 candidate names factored in
✓ GPT reasoning on local issues, caste dynamics & incumbency
✓ Multi-sentence key factors — not just a number, a full analysis
✓ Confidence levels: Safe / Likely / Lean / Toss-up

🔗 Predictions Overview:
https://t.co/vmopTCCLRh

📰 Full Analysis Article (charts, tables, deep dive):
https://t.co/c4ULkmgSPl

🗺️ Explore any constituency:
https://t.co/rxXF5GFqJY

💻 100% open source. 100% transparent methodology.
🤔 38 seats too close to call — which way do YOU think they'll break?

#TamilNadu #Elections2026 #TNElections2026 #Votelytics #AI #ElectionPrediction #DMK #AIADMK #TVK #BJP #BuildInPublic #OpenSource

[Gireesh @GireeshS22]

What a scam #UCF329 is. It is a complete joke.

[Gireesh @GireeshS22]

@RingPhantomx Crazy how Oliveira is consistently ranked above all of them

[Gireesh @GireeshS22]

Wowwwww @Justin_Gaethje humbling Toperia
#ufcfreedom250
What a day for legacy era fighters!

[Gireesh @GireeshS22]

Today's #MonacoGP is a milestone for me as a F1 fan
I remember my first full race weekend in 2016 right after Rosberg Hamilton crash at Spain, the hype was so much that I followed all thro the weekend, when I look back, now I've been following F1 full seasons for whole 10 years!

[Gireesh @GireeshS22]

Based on how lower case 'f' is written in all the pages I can infer that physics paper might not be his.

[VEDANT @VEDANTSHRIV17]

I am a CBSE Class 12 student.

After receiving unexpectedly low marks in Physics, we applied for photocopies of my answer sheets through the CBSE reevaluation process.

Today we received the copies.

And I am shattered because the Physics answer sheet uploaded by CBSE is not mine

[Gireesh @GireeshS22]

The key objective pattern is continuity of seat control: the provided winner data show INC/DMK+ winning Colachal in 2011, 2016 and 2021, with reported victory margins of 5.2%, 9.9% and 9.2%, so the constituency has leaned toward SPA rather than behaving like a frequent swing seat. However, Prince J.G., the 2021 winner and repeat victor, is not re-contesting in 2026, which removes a clear personal-incumbency advantage and weakens SPA relative to its past baseline. The supplied 2011 and 2016 alliance-share figures are internally inconsistent with the declared winners, so the most reliable signals are repeated INC wins and the margin trend rather than the raw alliance totals alone. In a four-way contest, NTK already had a meaningful vote in 2021 and TVK's entry should further reduce the winning threshold, making the race more competitive even if neither looks like the primary favourite on the available numbers. Based only on the data provided, SPA retains a narrow historical edge, NDA is the principal challenger, and vote fragmentation across TVK and NTK is more likely to tighten the contest than to overturn the basic SPA advantage.

[Gireesh @GireeshS22]

@Sensarch @VamsiChandran More of Claude
But see my full analysis here https://t.co/kxYzVwSSmP

[Gireesh @GireeshS22]

Coimbatore South is one of the more competitive seats in this dataset. The actual results show the AIADMK/NDA side winning in 2011, 2016 and 2021, but its margin steadily narrowed from 13.9% to 7.1% to just 0.7%, indicating a clear trend toward a much tighter contest. The 2021 winning candidate, Vanathi Srinivasan, is not re-contesting, so there is no direct incumbent-candidate advantage for the NDA in 2026; however, the NDA has fielded Amman K. Arjunan, who already won this constituency in 2016, which gives it meaningful local continuity. The supplied alliance vote-share figures suggest strong SPA competitiveness by 2021, but they conflict with the listed winner and margin data, so they are best read as evidence that the SPA is very much in contention rather than as proof of a safe lead. In a 100% urban four-corner race, TVK and NTK are likely to lower the winning threshold and make this a plurality contest. That fragmentation slightly favors the alliance with the clearest historical record of converting support into wins here, so the NDA gets a narrow edge, but the seat remains a genuine toss-up.

[Gireesh @GireeshS22]

@dkarthikTOI My model predicts toss up too at 39.4% DMK vs 37 ADMK

https://t.co/iiXRkRohMm

[Gireesh @GireeshS22]

@ManuelFaysse Why not add ACL to that list?

[Gireesh @GireeshS22]

The 2021 winning candidate is not re-contesting, so there is no direct incumbent-candidate advantage for SPA. Vriddhachalam has shown major volatility across the last three elections: the DMK-led side was dominant in 2011, the AIADMK-led side won strongly in 2016, and the DMK-led side returned in 2021 but only by a razor-thin 0.3% margin, which marks this as a genuine marginal seat rather than a stable stronghold for either bloc. SPA gets a modest positive candidate-side boost from fielding DMDK, which is the party that last won this constituency in 2011 per the supplied data, giving it some local continuity even without the sitting MLA. NDA is still fully competitive because its alliance vote was very strong in 2016 and the 2021 contest was extremely close. With TVK entering and NTK remaining in the field, the vote split is likely to reduce both major alliances from past peaks and bring the winning threshold into the high 30s. Overall, this looks too close to call with a narrow edge to SPA rather than a clear advantage.

[Gireesh @GireeshS22]

@PSpicker Wow seems like you got early access to ChatGPT or ChatGPT is trained on your writing.

[Gireesh @GireeshS22]

@keviv9 I think this cycle workload for the reviewers were higher than usual, so their excitement factor to engage with authors decreases.
That said, my first time submitting to ARR, for what I would [subjectively] consider good piece of research got borderline scores.

[Gireesh @GireeshS22]

@Indian__doctor Horrible. These entitled government servants should be shown their place for acting without dignity.

[Gireesh @GireeshS22]

@itzproudloser @mkstalin MKS leads comfortably here.
Kolathur is a DMK fortress with a CM-level organizational footprint and strong recall from big wins in 2011/2016/2021
https://t.co/DVRyyT3SOR

[Gireesh @GireeshS22]

@RKaushik1802 @NoBrokerCare What happened? 😳

[Gireesh @GireeshS22]

@KantInEastt I am from the south and I couldn't even recognize who he was till I read the comments.