Since attending EFL24, not a losing week and finished October with a +15.71 R
The best thing though, because of my journaling, I know where I’m fucking up.
Huge 🙏 and massive 🫡 to @Trader_Dante
My new mantra, which I have on my desk in full view:
My Path
This is the first hot market I have missed in 6 years I think.
I was gone on vacation for 1 month and really thought about the way I want to approach trading and my life path going forward.
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The result:
I do not want to be actively trading anymore. I do not want the stress, the time involvement, the volatility, the toxic competition.
I want to compound and work/live around people I respect and love. I want those around me to prosper and the cake to get bigger for all, not for the piece to get bigger because I thought my friend for it (day trade vs investing/ finite vs infinite mindset)
It is hard to cut the ties because it is who I was for the past 10 years, however what is my goal and my position?
When everyone you traded with your entire career is still trading and they do so within a group, it is extremely easy to conform to the social pressure (be it hidden or not).
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Why did I trade
At my core, I wanted freedom which is what money gave me. I had nothing to lose, no lifestyle, no expenses... I was young, hungry to prove people wrong and gain my freedom through it.
I reflected on it all and I found a few answers.
I have freedom✅
I have the lifestyle I want ✅
I do not need to make it twice ✅
I live a stress free life(as much as possible)✅
I want more time to think and learn🚫?
Continuing to trade does not provide me a better life, heightens my stress, reduces my freedom through the time involvement and increases the risk of a black swan.
I am in a different situation than others and thus had to truly reflect on why I am doing what I am. Even the biggest traders I know continued to trade past success, however none of them knew how to invest or even had the remote interest to do so.
I saw 9fig trades blow up and also nearly blow up. Does it need to be me?
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Resolution
My passion is not trading, it is the markets, it is the game, the quest for new mastery of a craft. I do not need to be actively trading to continue this path.
Instead I want to manage my portfolio for legacy. I want to compound and be in the game in 50y.
I am 23y old at this time and I have the biggest asset any super investor would want. Time to compound.
I will be continuing to learn from the masters out there like Buffett, Smith, Ackman and alike and aiming to match the ~15% per year returns. Additionally I will be investing/trading with a layer of pyramiding risk management as taught by Druckenmiller and Soros to maximize returns.
Trades, should I take any, will all be based around this philosophy:
"I will refrain from engaging in trades where an unfavorable shift against my position presents a more favorable opportunity, recognizing that it is within these realms that the elusive black swan resides."
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All my biggest losses and most stressful positions started as small positions, followed by adds while losing and I kept on being proven wrong.
The truth is you can not truly eliminate these situations from happening if strategies are build around reversion. You can stop out, however you will stop out in the spot that has better odds than the one you entered at.
Thus the more you are wrong, the more enticing the opportunity. You are constantly fighting between bad risk management and Win rate and it creates a heightened black swan potential and a shift in win vs losses distribution.
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🚫Reversion trades: Dip buys, parabolic shorts and capitulation trades.
✅Trend trades: Breakouts, EP, Investing
The overall shift in trading approach will get rid of high win rate strategies, but will focus on strategies based on RR. Risk-reward is where pyramiding reigns king and thus my expertise.
If I am right, I get the right to maximize positions to huge gains, if I am wrong I will take my small losses. A peaceful life.
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Bottom line
This new approach will allow me to focus on what truly matters and will be united with my values.
I will:
- not be exposed to career ending losses
- have time to learn (even outside of the stock market)
- use compounding as my closest ally
- allow for alpha to be captured
The hardest part about this all is to let go of preconceived notions, to walk my own path despite all my friends and trader friends walking another path and despite the countless conversations, messages and alike I get multiple times per day.
My success comes from the ability to do what other will not do.
First in small caps reading SEC filings and using data when none did. Second by learnings about macro and investing and 3x my account during the 2022/23 recovery.
Now it is time to adjust once more to the liquidity profile and overall goals and just like these prior paths, I will have to start walking alone.
The strategy will revolve around quality investing traded with a Druckenmiller/Soros risk management(pyramid) and accompanied by the alpha the select breakout opportunities will provide throughout time.
This will lead to a long term compounding effect with alpha being used to start new compounding positions.
Writing this out allows me to be more structured in my thoughts and this approach and I hope this now explains how I will proceed.
I do not want to close the door on trading, however this is for now, the journey I will embrace.
THE OFFICIAL PAYOUT MEGATHREAD.
I have made $1,187,415.34 across 218 payouts.
Because there are so many, and I want to share all of them for credibility, I have split this thread into individual threads.
Check the QR codes or tag the owners twitter accounts to verify.
Remember:
1. Sit on your hands when you don't see edge. Don't force setups. Patience.
2. Step up when you do see edge. No fear. No hesitation. Follow your process. Expect nothing. Expectations create emotions.
3. Trade the market, not your P&L.
4. Always seek improvement.
One style i trade :
- checking weekly, daily and 4h
-combining the trend and market structure flow in my mind, now you got a bias, long or shor, important "reversal" or "reaction" areas
- now go down into the lower time frames 1h,30min,5min do the same there too
- now you got 2 different flows
- if both flows align, trade the trend entring in break of structures agressivly or entering in retracments
- if both flows dont align, go with the higher time frame enter in agressive opposite flow moves for a reversal trade in the lower time frame or wait until a internal lower time frime structure get sweeped and then go in for the reversald (in direction of the HTF flow)
-sl´s should be put behind the sweep, liquidity grab, structure break, tUrTeL sOup etc, or behind the 3-4th structe point, not the first or second cuz they can easily get targetted in the lower time frame and you will hit Sl for nothing, be smart
should be really obvious, yet people have struggle following this simple but very effective strategy
one of my fav free money setups :
you need to find a consolidation, not only in the lower timeframe but also on the higher 4h or at min on the hourly
now find a crazy weird whick (obvious manipulation) after the price retraces back to the baseline, open a simple position on the direction of the whick , somewhere at the end of the peak
you will discover that the price will not go aggressively in that direction but rather slowly but steady giving enough time to bait more short sellers in which will get liquidated on a high over a high and over another high …
this simple price action trend following model printed me multiple 5 digit profits
SL depends on previous structure but I would put it behind the 3rd or 4th low
(if it’s not too far away)
this kind of moves you mainly see in lower time frame setups 1-5min chart
4h: As We have formed a bullish STD that aligns with the external Weekly Liquidity Level which again builds more confluences that we will have a bullish week
Weekly/Daily: We have reached 2-2.5 STD + tapped into the BB + Filled FVG 50% and respected it with a big wick pull-away. - I believe following week will like be bullish and reach for the Weekly External highs
We also closed inside the Weekly FVG
4h:
As anticipated last week price Tapped into all the Overlapping POI’s and perfectly rejected the BB with candle close above the line and followed by a 4h Displacement which indicates we likely will continue bullish
Daily: Daily Disrespected the Bearish FVG which is a beautiful indication we will continue bullish / also all the Daily Candles are also holding the Bullish FVG which is also a confluence
4h: We are respecting the Bearish 4h FVG we are currently and we have took BSL so i believe we will Seek 4h SSL that aligns with Daily/Weekly FVG and possibly also tap Into the 4h FVG overlapping the BB