TheGlobalFaultlines

Mapping the evolving global order

Incompetent leaders | Uncomfortable truths
Independent

[TheGlobalFaultlines @GlobalFaults]

The US-Iran war looks set to demolish far more than it appears to.

The longer the US stays in this, the higher the odds this stops being a US-Iran war and becomes a Gulf-wide one. Not escalation that threatens Washington or Tehran. Escalation that consumes the entire region.

The GCC economies are already projected to contract by as much as 8.5% this year and that's before this war spreads to the other members of the region.

Wars that don't end on schedule rarely stay the same size. They occupy more geography and more actors, not less. Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Yemen, Oman - every one of them sits close enough to be pulled in, and none of them are large enough to absorb it without breaking.

It may not be in the very near future but if this drags on, the endgame won't be as simple as US or Iran losing. It's the entire Gulf burning down, taking the global economy with it.

That may sound like overthinking or worst-case scenario building. Right now, it's reading closer to a forecast.

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[TheGlobalFaultlines @GlobalFaults]

The headlines say Trump is weighing a ground operation.

I don't think he would commit US troops to it. Not for lack of will. The math is brutal either way. American casualties on Iranian soil would be politically unrecoverable. Four months from midterms, with his approval near the lowest point, a ground war is the one move Republicans can't absorb.

Listen to what he actually said: "We have other people who will do the ground campaign for us".

The Kurdish option was floated back in March, but it never materialized. Turkey killed it before it started. Arming and activating the Kurds is still on the table as a way to tie up IRGC forces at the border. But if not Kurds, it's more likely intelligence assets already inside Iran.

Iran's own supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, hasn't shown his face or used his voice once since March. CIA and Mossad have reportedly been trying to confirm if he's even functionally in charge.

The US was aiming for full regime change as part of the initial plan - partially achieved. Now, with negotiations stalled and Iran showing no sign of folding, the US may aim to dismantle more of the IRGC's command layer through these same assets. That may be the only path left for the US to save face and renegotiate from a position of authority.

That's a quieter war than the one making headlines. It's also the only one that fits the timeline Trump is actually running against.

Connect @GlobalFaults for more

[TheGlobalFaultlines @GlobalFaults]

@MarioNawfal China is the clearing market for sanctioned oil.

Beijing says it "opposes unilateral sanctions" while its refiners profit from them. It takes about 90% of Iran's oil exports.

That's not solidarity. It's arbitrage.

[TheGlobalFaultlines @GlobalFaults]

@RT_com Billions for a war. Coal plants on standby for the winter.

Merz keeps the war hot while his own storage runs cold.

This is expected where the government's priorities are abroad, and it doesn't care much about the cold at home.

[TheGlobalFaultlines @GlobalFaults]

The UN adopts the Russian resolution against the glorification of Nazism: 117 votes in favor.

Almost all NATO & EU members voted Against (except Turkey, which abstained).

EU’s hatred of Russia is so intense that it seems willing to embrace Nazism and racism!

[TheGlobalFaultlines @GlobalFaults]

Germany's top General: "If there is one sentence I take away from the last few years it is: to give up everything for freedom, that is freedom."

Welcome back, Germany.

Fascism never went away in Europe; it was simply rebranded.

[TheGlobalFaultlines @GlobalFaults]

He is a US Senator from Arizona, saying that Ukrainian lives matter no more than killing Russians.

Tomorrow, he may say the same about Europeans or Canadians.

After all, who cares what happens to innocent civilians?

[TheGlobalFaultlines @GlobalFaults]

Hakeem Jeffries: "Pete Hegseth, the so-called Secretary of Defense, been a failure and a disaster for the American people.

He shredded the law and the Constitution with impunity, and there is no circumstance that justifies Pete Hegseth continuing to hold this position."

[TheGlobalFaultlines @GlobalFaults]

@MarioBojic Is this what European solidarity has become - pressuring sovereign member states to finance a useless war without sufficient debate over the costs, limits or endgame?

Europe needs leadership that answers to its own citizens, not a blank cheque for Ukraine.

[TheGlobalFaultlines @GlobalFaults]

@kajakallas @andrii_sybiha Yeah NATO - "Defensive Alliance" that aggressively expanded onto Russia's borders.

Also, were the regime change wars in Libya and Iraq defensive wars?

[TheGlobalFaultlines @GlobalFaults]

First images of the talks in Abu Dhabi. Russia, US & Ukraine are now in the same room after Feb 2027.

Kushner and Witkoff are mediating, with Medinsky leading Moscow's team and Umerov leading Kyiv's.

European delegation was not admitted to the negotiating room.

[TheGlobalFaultlines @GlobalFaults]

Zelenskyy resorts to his favorite pastime of scaring European leaders with Russia.

It keeps his paychecks coming with no accountability to Ukrainians or Europeans.

And yet, not a single European leader is willing to call out this ever-escalating rhetoric.

Works everytime.

[TheGlobalFaultlines @GlobalFaults]

@dejanirasilveir A government that receives billions in Western funding cannot be allowed to escape scrutiny over the exploitation of children.

No war, no political alliance and no amount of Western support can justify turning vulnerable children into commodities.

[TheGlobalFaultlines @GlobalFaults]

Hakeem Jeffries: "Pete Hegseth, the so-called Secretary of Defense, been a failure and a disaster for the American people.

He shredded the law and the Constitution with impunity, and there is no circumstance that justifies Pete Hegseth continuing to hold this position."

[TheGlobalFaultlines @GlobalFaults]

Iran has denied of any planned meeting between US and Iranian officials.

Is it again an attempt to manipulate the oil market before the next strike?

[TheGlobalFaultlines @GlobalFaults]

Iran has denied of any planned meeting between US and Iranian officials.

Is it again an attempt to manipulate the oil market before the next strike?

[TheGlobalFaultlines @GlobalFaults]

US VP JD Vance & Iran’s National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei are expected to meet in Doha next week.

Talks can be significant.

But, the real question is whether both sides are finally ready to move beyond threats and maximalist demands towards a workable agreement.

[TheGlobalFaultlines @GlobalFaults]

Reports of proposed US Iran deal:

US could permit Iran to enrich uranium to 3.67%, reportedly fine by Iran.

Iran would reduce stockpile of uranium enriched to 60%.

US could unfreeze $6-9 billion in Iranian assets.

US naval blockade be lifted immediately upon an agreement.

[TheGlobalFaultlines @GlobalFaults]

US VP JD Vance & Iran’s National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei are expected to meet in Doha next week.

Talks can be significant.

But, the real question is whether both sides are finally ready to move beyond threats and maximalist demands towards a workable agreement.

[TheGlobalFaultlines @GlobalFaults]

US VP JD Vance & Iran’s National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei are expected to meet in Doha next week.

Talks can be significant.

But, the real question is whether both sides are finally ready to move beyond threats and maximalist demands towards a workable agreement.

[TheGlobalFaultlines @GlobalFaults]

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian: "The Supreme Leader ordered us to put an end to the situation of 'neither war nor peace.'

We can negotiate with dignity and resolve the issue with dignity."

Is Iran stretching its hand out to finalize a deal?

Is Russia mediating for the US?

[TheGlobalFaultlines @GlobalFaults]

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian: "The Supreme Leader ordered us to put an end to the situation of 'neither war nor peace.'

We can negotiate with dignity and resolve the issue with dignity."

Is Iran stretching its hand out to finalize a deal?

Is Russia mediating for the US?

[TheGlobalFaultlines @GlobalFaults]

Trump announces Task Force Iron Gate to blockade land routes into Iran.

It consists of just 20 people, so it may simply be a coordinating body working with neighbouring countries to stop inflows.

Pakistan's recent closure of its land borders with Iran fits the pattern.

[TheGlobalFaultlines @GlobalFaults]

Germany's top General: "If there is one sentence I take away from the last few years it is: to give up everything for freedom, that is freedom."

Welcome back, Germany.

Fascism never went away in Europe; it was simply rebranded.

[TheGlobalFaultlines @GlobalFaults]

Zelenskyy resorts to his favorite pastime of scaring European leaders with Russia.

It keeps his paychecks coming with no accountability to Ukrainians or Europeans.

And yet, not a single European leader is willing to call out this ever-escalating rhetoric.

Works everytime.

[TheGlobalFaultlines @GlobalFaults]

@ahwakixyd True. He was never honest in those negotiations. They were bound to fail.

[TheGlobalFaultlines @GlobalFaults]

Trump announces Task Force Iron Gate to blockade land routes into Iran.

It consists of just 20 people, so it may simply be a coordinating body working with neighbouring countries to stop inflows.

Pakistan's recent closure of its land borders with Iran fits the pattern.

[TheGlobalFaultlines @GlobalFaults]

BREAKING: The US has likely struck Qeshm Island in recent minutes.

Multiple photos show a plume of smoke rising from the island.

Locals in Qeshm are reporting Fighter Jet activity above Qeshm.

[TheGlobalFaultlines @GlobalFaults]

@MarioNawfal Will the Russian vessels in the Caspian or the Chinese trains in the Central Asia comply?

https://t.co/li3dq5D27h

[TheGlobalFaultlines @GlobalFaults]

Trump announces Task Force Iron Gate to blockade land routes into Iran.

It consists of just 20 people, so it may simply be a coordinating body working with neighbouring countries to stop inflows.

Pakistan's recent closure of its land borders with Iran fits the pattern.

[TheGlobalFaultlines @GlobalFaults]

@BrettErickson28 Also him, in 2011-

[TheGlobalFaultlines @GlobalFaults]

@BrettErickson28 It is an attempt to get Iran to shoot down a couple or inflict mass US casualty; thereby giving Trump the reason to go all guns blazing.

With the recent results & comments from the Dems, he may need to invent a reason this time.

Media isn't covering the recent events that well.

[TheGlobalFaultlines @GlobalFaults]

BREAKING: Israeli President Herzog has announced that he will task Gadi Eisenkot to form a new government.

Eisenkot will formally receive mandate on Nov 8 & have 28 + 14 days to form the government.

He needs to secure the support of 61 lawmakers.

[TheGlobalFaultlines @GlobalFaults]

BREAKING: The US has likely struck Qeshm Island in recent minutes.

Multiple photos show a plume of smoke rising from the island.

Locals in Qeshm are reporting Fighter Jet activity above Qeshm.