Commodities MacGruber

Commodities Investor. Very Long Oil and Coal.

60% Commodities, 20% Special Sits and 20% Short Garbage.

*Not Investment Advice*

Now kind of a Bitcoin douche!

[Commodities MacGruber @GoForGrubes2]

Have said this downturn (or whatever you want to call it) will essentially be a 'white collar recession'.

To date, layoffs have been almost entirely in WC workforce which is UNIQUE in 🇺🇸 History.

All previous slowdowns/recessions have started in BC workforce & bled into WC.

[Amanda Goodall @Amanda_Goodall]

Are you too expensive?
Are you too human?
👇

I used to say:
Don’t worry about ageism. (so many posts and videos on this) I helped 55+ land great jobs all the time.

I don’t say that anymore.

The last 18 months have been brutal. People with 15–25 years at one company? CUT.

I'll call it for what it is:
• They make too much
• They’re not AI-native
• They lead people... now replaced by dashboards

That’s the new layoff filter.

The stats are just as brutal:
- Avg job hunt at 55+? 26 weeks
- Avg pay cut? 11%
- Many never recover... forced into part-time “retirement”

HR’s seriously broken.
Recruiting? Mostly useless.

I’ve seen the best people erased like they never mattered.

If you’re not scared yet, you’re not paying attention.

[Martin Shkreli @MartinShkreli]

in all seriousness, #1 thing to do in this $NVDA situation is ASK THE SHAREHOLDERS. call the top 10 shareholders in the next few hours and do what THEY say. they're the boss. BOD reports to shareholders. how quickly they forget...

[Rudy Havenstein, Senior Markets Commentator. @RudyHavenstein]

*JENSEN HUANG CLAIMS HE IS IN EPSTEIN FILES IN ATTEMPT TO THWART ANY FURTHER INVESTIGATION - AP.

[HODOR @Maximus_Holla]

For the past two years, we have not been trading technicals or fundamentals, we have been trading tariff headlines, betting on whether Trump making a deal or starting a war with Iran, and apparently following NVDA’s CEO’s erections like its the make or break for whole AI sector!

[Gavin Baker @GavinSBaker]

And/or have a shareholder vote after the investigation is complete.

Difficult to argue this is in the best interest of shareholders with the stock down 8% after hours on the WSJ report about the board preparing to oust him.

[Commodities MacGruber @GoForGrubes2]

Infidelity but would rather deal with a contrite man (a REFORMED horn dog by then) than some of the other AI top dogs who are quite literally evil & aren't shy about admitting it.

[Commodities MacGruber @GoForGrubes2]

Called out the Key Man risk of Jensen in '24 & '25 w/more thoroughly underappreciated tweets.

IF he's out by EOY, he's still top-3 knowledgeable in all of AI & one of the wealthiest men in the 🌎.

Imagine he becomes DARK JENSEN & the new Masa Son (but galaxy brained).

Wouldn't

[Commodities MacGruber @GoForGrubes2]

We might be testing this $NVDA vs. $TSLA duel!

Elon vs. Jensen for the key man VALUE?!?!?

Also, the options market kind of likes this tweet, which has me somewhat concerned overall.

[Commodities MacGruber @GoForGrubes2]

A Jensen focused NEW entity become insanely valuable from the get go?

As an incredible architect, connector + financier, his 2nd arc 'could look' rather incredible & in it's own way, probably dramatically undercut Nvidia.

I'm spitballing but this is WILD stuff.

I loathe

[🦋 @pennycheck]

oh boi...

[Commodities MacGruber @GoForGrubes2]

We might be testing this $NVDA vs. $TSLA duel!

Elon vs. Jensen for the key man VALUE?!?!?

Also, the options market kind of likes this tweet, which has me somewhat concerned overall.

[Commodities MacGruber @GoForGrubes2]

Listening to the Fed Guvs + pundits drives me CRAZY particularly if they fail to provide a qualifier of 'The War' in their commentary.

My pithiest mental model for the 10-Yr:

- No war, sub four!

- Bye Jensen, sub three!

- AI trade DEAD, sub two!

The economy is propped up by

[Commodities MacGruber @GoForGrubes2]

As someone who worked at multiple restaurants in High School, I highly endorse!

I bought a car, got college $ & began investing EARLY because of this.

My kids will all spend a year doing this too.

You learn ALOT about the 🌎 & how to treat people while working these jobs.

[Cassandra MacDonald @CassandraRules]

Chick fil a almost always just hires local American teenagers who speak English, instead of foreign adults, and theyre known for their great service and ability to flawlessly handle long drive through lines.

I think about this often because its not a coincidence that their service is so superior.

Companies need to start hiring American teenagers for jobs that were always meant for them again.

[Commodities MacGruber @GoForGrubes2]

If Coreweave was good, Nebius will be better & if Nebius explodes higher tomorrow morning, then prepare for a VERY green Thursday as well

I've said repeatedly that while the AI trade is wobbling, earnings/growth should still be quite good (for now)

War/Jensen tape 💣 caveat 🤷‍♂️

[Commodities MacGruber @GoForGrubes2]

Cough. Ahem. Cough. 👇

Ric Flair Woooooo!

Sold some of that ETF Friday at 23.90 immediately after close.

Also bought some Nebius Monday AM at ~129.18.

Got less than 1/2 of what I wanted b/c I REFUSED to pay above 130!

Sold 165 weekly C's which I hope get called away.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Rubio Suggests US Will Starve Iran Until Tehran Agrees To Peace Deal https://t.co/UnRzzY6gbk

[Commodities MacGruber @GoForGrubes2]

Cough. Ahem. Cough. 👇

Ric Flair Woooooo!

Sold some of that ETF Friday at 23.90 immediately after close.

Also bought some Nebius Monday AM at ~129.18.

Got less than 1/2 of what I wanted b/c I REFUSED to pay above 130!

Sold 165 weekly C's which I hope get called away.

[Commodities MacGruber @GoForGrubes2]

Losers

- VIX hit 28 Thursday before close. I've now sold 75% of my position.

- Historically, 30 usually caps it & then we see a decline

- A heavy VIX decline would come from peeps buying back puts. The mechanics of that would lead to a mkt bounce. And why I bot battered AI 💩

[Jürgen Nauditt 🇩🇪🇺🇦 @jurgen_nauditt]

An attack on the Omsk oil refinery in Russia has been underway for over two hours; observers report powerful explosions.

The Omsk oil refinery is one of the largest and most significant facilities of its kind in Russia. It produces gasoline, diesel fuel, and kerosene. The site is located approximately 2,500 km from Ukraine.

[𝐀𝐧𝐧𝐚 𝐊𝐨𝐦𝐬𝐚 🇪🇺🇵🇱🇺🇦 @Tweet4AnnaNAFO]

🔥Russians are panicking over Ukraine’s new refinery strike tactics. Drones reportedly switch targets mid-flight, and Trump can no longer simply pull the plug.

The Russian Telegram channel *Дневник Разведчика* (Intelligence Officer’s Diary, 147,800 subscribers) describes a major shift in Ukraine’s long-range drone campaign following the strikes on Kstovo, Samara and Yaroslavl.

Previously, Ukrainian drones were sent toward predetermined targets. If the first drones successfully hit a refinery unit, the rest continued toward the same target.

Now, according to the Russian channel, Ukrainian operators can monitor strikes in real time and redirect incoming drones while they are still in flight.

Once a primary distillation unit is hit, subsequent drones can be redirected toward storage tanks, cracking units, electrical substations or other critical equipment.

Instead of concentrating an entire wave on one target, Ukraine can distribute the damage across multiple parts of the refinery.

The Russians are describing something far more dangerous for their oil industry than simply larger drone attacks: the ability to adapt an entire strike while it is happening.

The channel attributes this capability to Israeli HiSKY SmartLight satellite communications terminals, which it says Ukraine is using as an alternative to Starlink.

It claims the terminals allow two-way communication over Russian territory, making it possible to adjust flight paths, identify air-defence positions and redirect drones around interception zones.

And then comes the most revealing part.

The Russian channel argues that American restrictions on Starlink have backfired spectacularly.

Its conclusion:

"Trump has simply lost his leverage over Kyiv’s long-range strikes."

And:

"Ukraine has slipped off the American leash and found a commercial alternative that the White House cannot switch off with a phone call."

That is coming from a Russian military channel, not Ukrainian propaganda.

Moscow is now discussing a scenario in which Ukraine can strike multiple critical refinery units in a single operation, adapt to Russian air defences in real time and continue its campaign without depending on American-controlled communications.

Putin has been trying to get Trump to restrain Ukraine’s refinery strikes. Now Russian military commentators are warning that even American pressure may no longer be enough.

The irony is extraordinary. Washington reportedly tried to limit Ukraine’s options. The Russians are now complaining that Ukraine has found a way around those limits.

The HiSKY deployment, electronic-warfare resistance and real-time retargeting capabilities are claims made by the Russian channel, not independently established technical facts. The attribution in the draft matters, especially for the claims about Trump’s leverage.

[James E. Thorne @DrJStrategy]

Warsh wants to scrap forward guidance and dot plots, yet Fed officials remain free to signal their own policy preferences under the existing communications rules. He is effectively ceding forward guidance to the hawks and disgruntled colleagues. That is no way to run the Fed.

[Commodities MacGruber @GoForGrubes2]

@Investor_NICK_ Save JJ fantasy owners!!!

[The Long View @HayekAndKeynes]

Oil is down 20% since the CPI data released today was collected... it's not that useful, IMO

[Jonathan Maze @jonathanmaze]

Why do brands like Chick-fil-A, Culver's, In-N-Out, Raising Cane's, etc. outperform the big, publicly traded companies?

John Weiss, senior advisor with the investment banking firm Harrison Co., noted a few reasons at the Restaurant Finance conference:

They "manage for the next generation, not the next quarter" and "focus on the lifetime value of a customer" and don't spend too much effort on operationally complex limited-time offers. They take care of employees who do a better job in the restaurants, giving customers a better experience that drives sales over the long term.

The large public companies "focus on cutting costs to improve margins" and have high turnover. Their operations suffer, customers have a bad experience, and sales and margins decline.

The private companies have long-tenured CEOs, which leads to consistency in operations. Public company CEO turnover "is more of a problem than hourly turnover."

Wendy's has had four CEOs in three years.

The private brands don't use kiosks and focus on hospitality. Public company franchises use kiosks aggressively. (I'll also add that some of the big public companies, notably McDonald's and Taco Bell, are aggressively going after drive-thru AI).

"At McDonald's, it seems as if they've almost abandoned cashiers. You're forced to use the kiosks. Those kiosks don't smile."

Some of the private companies also don't do delivery, notably In-N-Out. Raising Cane's also doesn't have formal arrangements with delivery providers.

While delivery provides incremental sales, "some of those public companies that have sold their souls to and outsourced their business models for third-party delivery companies are learning to regret it. Wingstop may be an example. Those third-party delivery companies really don't care about your brand image."

I agree with a lot of this. I do believe that brands have made a deal with the devil on third-party delivery, especially for franchisees. And by the end of next year almost none of your McDonald's orders will be taken by a person, given that the company plans to implement drive-thru AI.

Those fast-growth chains don't make these types of compromises. You have a better experience when you visit them, and so they're worth the money you spend. So they're thriving.