Greg Golson

✝️ Former MLB Outfielder and Professional Scout. Leisurely writer and music head.

Greg Golson - Wikipedia

[Greg Golson @GoGoGolson]

https://t.co/f4fQ6FMNKW

[Greg Golson @GoGoGolson]

@TheEXECUTlONER_ If he makes a move towards first (in the umpires opinion) he's established a new baseline and can be tagged out

[Greg Golson @GoGoGolson]

Its tough to answer that question. I believe hitters have goldilocks zones for bat speed. Like @JMikeMLB mentioned, lowering the volume of the swing creates a calmness in the box that cant be quantified. Recognition goes up and angles become more efficient.

If the same swing/path are deployed, yes more bat speed makes the ball go farther. But for some hitters that means a single in front of the CF'r is now caught. Hitting is a scientific art and baseball is madness.

[Greg Golson @GoGoGolson]

Yeah thats a way to do it. But that isn't a "one size fits all" type of thing. There are hitters that are more finesse. RH hitter that needs to hit the ball to the opposite field but gets thrown a cutter from a LHP isnt served by more bat speed. The ability to apply the barrel wgen necessary can be more valuable than increased bat speed.

[Greg Golson @GoGoGolson]

Yeah that's understandable. But slug and wOBA are stats that discount singles inherently. Sometimes a single is whats needed. And often, getting a single on a pitch in one quadrant of the zone forces the pitcher to attack different ones. Pull side contact naturally gets better exit velo and slug, but those stats naturally force the pitcher to throw other pitches and locations. Its a cat & mouse that isnt so black and white.

[Greg Golson @GoGoGolson]

So are you saying better bat speed = better hitter? Or are you saying better bat speed = better exit velo? In order for bat speed to be consequential, contact needs to be made. If someone's aim is to swing fast, they likely are a max effort swinger (which poorly impacts pitch recognition).

[Greg Golson @GoGoGolson]

@tiltbase @JMikeMLB Swinging faster adds to the equation. I played with tons of guys that didnt have elite bat speed, but they had elite timing and bat to ball skills. Bat speed makes waiting back harder, and the goal of pitchers is to get hitters off balance.

[Greg Golson @GoGoGolson]

@CoachRonKretz 2-out RBI. Baseball gold

[Greg Golson @GoGoGolson]

Runners at 2nd & 3rd. Infield in. Winning run at 2nd with 1 out and their closer on the mound. FB 96-98. SL 86-88. SP 83-86.

What's the optimal path?

The answer isn't in a spreadsheet. It's in your hands, your eyes, and every at-bat you've ever had leading up to that moment.

Something to think about while you're working. Because optimal is subjective. And winning the moment is key.

[Greg Golson @GoGoGolson]

@BaseballGuy316 @JMikeMLB Sometimes, players are overlooked because they don't fit the model. But some guys that you would call replacements just need consistent at bats (at that) level to adjust. Playing sparingly is extremely hard. It's something that isn't talked about enough.

[Greg Golson @GoGoGolson]

@GageEHC @TheWARmonger_ Hit* not his

[Greg Golson @GoGoGolson]

@GageEHC @TheWARmonger_ Yes. Thats what I'm hypothesizing. A sinker from 10-20 years ago was completely different than majority of sinkers today. Swings adapted to his the ball moving down. The sinkers that are being thrown today move more east/west than down.

[Greg Golson @GoGoGolson]

@TheWARmonger_ In my experience, over the past 6 years at least, hitters swings are geared for the bottom of the zone to elevate. So pitchers are learning to pitch at the top of the zone and inside. Just hypothesizing

[Greg Golson @GoGoGolson]

@TheWARmonger_ They definitely have put a lot of thought into it, trying to find a more perfect model. And no metric is flawless. There's just a lot more that goes into catching a fly ball than just speed. Thanks for the link.

[Greg Golson @GoGoGolson]

The commentator gives better context to what I mean. That ball is in the air a long time. A ML OF'r should catch that ball. Is catch probability more based on Athleticism? Because a lack of athleticism/care would be the only thing keeping a RF'r from catching that.

[The WARmonger @TheWARmonger_]

So nothing about what the fielder does changes the catch probability. It just impacts whether he catches it or not and how we view the catch. Statcast uses the distance needed and time to get to the spot, with additional inputs for the direction of the play and walls, etc.

If a whole bunch of outfielders are attempting to catch a 50% ball, the best will catch the ball fairly easily and the weakest will miss it or have to dive.

[Greg Golson @GoGoGolson]

@TheWARmonger_ Ok that makes more sense. I think the word "probability" is what gets me. There's some great outfielders that aren't fast. There's some fast outfielders that get terrible reads.

[Greg Golson @GoGoGolson]

@TheWARmonger_ If he doesn't dive in the second one, does it make the catch probability more likely? He could have stayed on his feet, imo. But the first one was full extension on a ball slicing away from him and a dive was absolutely necessary.

[Greg Golson @GoGoGolson]

1. 3-0 count where the pitcher has been just missing the zone. It's a calculated risks because he's likely going to deliberate to the plate and the catcher is going to hold the location. 3-1 count with a runner in scoring position.

2. 1st & 3rd with a flyball to medium RF line or LF line. You should be able to advance one of the runners because the defense has to decide to throw it somewhere. Likely to home, but both runners need to be aggressive after the catch. Retreat once the fielder throws it somewhere.