@corbydavidson@IsaacWalker5 You have been laying it on pretty thick against Tech. From talking with college dudes this summer online gambling is rampant on campuses. Best guess from these guys is about 95% of college dudes have multiple accounts & bet 5-8 a week
“History May not Repeat Itself but it often does Rhyme.” Some thoughts following the end of Q1 and this 3% rally today.
In 1997 due to the Asian currency crisis and in 1998 due to the Russian bond default and the failure of Long-Term Capital Management, $CSCO, (the $NVDA of its day for the internet infrastructure buildout) was down 37-38% intra-year from peak to trough. This corresponded to the S&P having a 11% and 19% selloff intra-year, respectively. Cisco finished both full years up 31% and 150% respectively while the S&P finished up 31% and 27%. This was in year three and four of the internet infrastructure buildout if the launch of Netscape Navigator at the end of 1994 is used as the starting point.
In 2026, we are in year four of the AI infrastructure buildout using the launch of ChatGPT at the end of 2022 as a starting point. And there is also the macro risk caused by the surge in oil prices due to the conflict with Iran. But I believe this too shall pass given President Trump clearly wants an off ramp to this conflict. The S&P is down 5%, Nasdaq is down 7% and the Magnificent 7 are down 12% through Q1.
But as shown by the incredible ramp in OpenClaw which was formalized at the end of January, Agentic AI is now taking off in 2026 which needs at least 10-100x more tokens versus Chat-based AI. Token generation is up over 100% in just two months versus growing under 20% in the prior two months as a result. I believe the ultimate winners will be Nvidia (the best AI enablement chips) and $GOOGL (the complete AI stack.) $META, as I wrote about on Sunday in more detail, was overly punished on perceived risks around their adverse court case results despite the solid ROI on their AI spend.
In addition, Agentic AI due to the greater need for orchestration also uses more server CPUs per Gigawatt of infrastructure versus AI training or Chat-based AI. The server ratio compared to GPUs suffered over the past 3 years in the move to accelerated computing from general purpose computing. Today, I believe the ratio of GPU to CPU is moving from 7 to 1 to a much better 4 to 1. So names like $INTC and $AMD should benefit.
Other Thoughts around positioning
1. U need to get MESI- Asset heavy and low AI obsolescence risk names are important during a period of AI driven disruption. These five subsectors of the S&P, which are Utilities, Materials, Energy, Staples, Industrial, are all up through Q1 and on average are +13% versus down 5% for the S&P and down 12% for the Magnificent 7. Even today they were up 0.7% despite the rotation back into technology names.
2. But high memory prices are likely to negatively impact consumer electronics demand and/or compress margins in sectors including low-to-mid range smartphones & PCs.
3. I am cautious of companies overly exposed to OpenAI. Abandoning “sideline projects” like Sora with $DIS and the checkout feature for $PYPL speaks to the pressure they face from Google and Anthropic.
4. It will take time for the winners and losers in software to become clear on Agentic AI disruption. I do not believe we have seen the ultimate bottom in even the winners. Using an analogy from the internet bubble, $AMZN revenues went from $1.6B in 1999 to $3.1B in 2001 but the stock dropped from $106 in late 1999 to a trough of $6 in late 2001 as other companies like Webvan went to zero.
5. In terms of managing risk, I am trying to not get too negative when the market is technically oversold according to my internal models. Even if the market is in the early stages of a recession caused by higher oil prices and an AI implosion, there can be vicious rallies along the way. When the internet infrastructure bubble burst, the S&P had 7 rallies averaging 14% each while still losing 49% over 2.5 years. A surge in oil prices preceded that as well.
THIS WILL SURPRISE MANY OF YOU..... OR NOT!!
From Robert Galka ---
THE WAR ISN’T ABOUT IRAN. IT NEVER WAS.
March 9, 2026.
They named Khamenei’s son. Mojtaba Khamenei — the man Trump said was unacceptable — is now the Supreme Leader of Iran.
Israel responded in 14 minutes: “We will pursue the successor. Consider yourselves warned.”
But here’s what no one is asking. Why did Trump let them choose him? Why is the most powerful military on earth watching 88 old men in a bunker pick a dead man’s son — and doing nothing?
Because Trump doesn’t care who sits on that throne.
He cares about what’s underneath it.
⚡️ $127 BILLION IN GOLD. BURIED UNDER 4 IRANIAN CITIES.
Iran’s Central Bank holds one of the largest undeclared gold reserves on earth. $127 billion. Stored in underground vaults beneath Tehran, Isfahan, Shiraz, and Mashhad.
This gold was never Iran’s. It was moved there between 2009 and 2016 — during the Obama administration — through Swiss intermediaries, Chinese state banks, and the same shell companies that laundered money for the Clinton Foundation.
The Iran Nuclear Deal wasn’t about nuclear weapons. It was about creating a vault. A place to hide the Deep State’s gold outside the reach of US auditors.
Obama’s $1.7 billion “ransom payment” on pallets? That wasn’t ransom. That was a deposit receipt. They were paying Iran to hold their gold.
🔻 GOLD JUST HIT $5,100. ASK YOURSELF WHY.
One year ago — $2,600. Today — $5,105. Doubled. In a straight line up — starting the exact week Trump took office.
Gold has now overtaken the US dollar as the world’s largest reserve asset. First time since 1971. Analysts project $6,250 by December.
But the classified Treasury briefing delivered to Trump on February 28 projects $8,400 by Q1 2027. Because by then, the Federal Reserve will no longer exist.
⚡️ EXECUTIVE ORDER 14312 — “THE AMERICAN GOLD STANDARD ACT”
March 6, 2026 — the same day Soros was placed under house arrest — Trump signed EO 14312. No press conference. Page 112 of the Federal Register.
Title: “Restoring Sound Money and Establishing the American Gold Standard.”
The order directs the Treasury to audit all US gold reserves at Fort Knox, West Point, and the NY Fed within 90 days. Prepare a framework for gold-backed digital currency by September 2026. Freeze all Federal Reserve open market operations pending the audit. Establish a Quantum Financial System integration task force under the Department of Defense.
The QFS isn’t coming. It’s already being built.
🔻 WHY THE WAR. WHY NOW. WHY IRAN.
Trump isn’t bombing Iran to stop missiles. He’s bombing Iran to repatriate the gold.
Operation Black Sky — the classified order signed on the flight from Dover — isn’t about destroying banks. It’s about opening the vaults.
Every F-35 sortie over Isfahan and Shiraz isn’t hitting military targets. They’re hitting access points. Tunnel networks. Elevator shafts leading to the deepest vaults in the Middle East.
When those vaults open, the world will see what was hidden. Not just gold. Ledgers. Names. Transactions. Every dollar the Deep State moved for 20 years.
Soros. Clinton. Obama. The Federal Reserve. All connected. All funded through Tehran. All about to be exposed.
The war ends when the gold comes home.
And the gold is almost home.
⟁ Gold at $5,100. The Fed under audit. Iran’s vaults targeted. The QFS signed into law. Everything we told you was coming — is here. Share this before they bury it again.
How bad are the Heisman finalists? Here is how they compare to previous Texas Tech players:
RB Jeremiyah Love (Notre Shame)
- Tahj Brooks had better stats
QB Fernando Mendoza (Indiana)
- Harrell had better stats
- Kingsbury had better stats
- Hodges had better stats
- Symons had better stats
- Mahomes had better stats
QB Diego Pavia (Vanderbilt)
- Harrell had better stats
- Kingsbury had better stats
- Hodges had better stats
- Symons had better stats
- Mahomes had better stats
QB Julian Sayin (Ohio State)
- Harrell had better stats
- Kingsbury had better stats
- Hodges had better stats
- Symons had better stats
- Mahomes had better stats