I think #SOL season likely comes again but at the very end of this cycle and not before
Imo most degens been squeezed out over the past year and a half, which was longer than the entire bear market
Most have been either drained completely or have so very little left & need like 900% just to B/E
People need to believe & get rich again before they can hyper gamble their wealth down once more π
Till then I think #SOL/#BTC continues to go down & then bigger spike in #SOL/#BTC marks the end of it
Kinda my current loose thoughts, that I could be wrong on but an idea I'm working with and been discussing on YT for a while
SOL has rallied significantly hard in the last 2 weeks (at least partially due to a TRUMP sink) and believe there is at least a quorum of thought around the fact that the SOL ETF approval may be today after the initial 19b4 filings by Canary / 21Shares / VanEck that happened on Nov 11st, 2024
This is due to the fact that the "1st deadline" is quoted as Jan 25th, 2025. IMO this is almost 90%+ likely to be extended for further review & there is a mismatch b/w how it appears (on Polymarket w/ 80%+ odds of getting approved) vs the highly unlikely chance we see an approval today/tmr specifically
The timeline in b/w official approval for IBIT and ETHA for filing their 19b4s & official approvals all took at minimum around the 3rd deadline (~180 days) and for the latter, 225 (effectively the latest possible)
The market was able to get leaks respectively (GBTC discount closing in Sep'23 and media leak in Oct; BBG bros leaking in May'24) so we should look at the half-life which is probably closer to 90-100 days for when ETF outcomes starts being priced in
SOL is much more of an edge case to me and leans toward a lengthier timeline, not shorter (so more similar to ETH) for 2 reasons:
1. There is no futures data for SOL like there was for BTC/ETH, which no doubt helped support the approval case
2. BlackRock has not filed their 19b4 yet and I would be quite surprised if they did not to garner in the fees
I sold everything I had. Every coin I owned is gone. I'm completely out of the cryptocurrency market, I can't take it anymore. Aggressive dumping, manipulation, everything is so intense. crypto is over, I am out, I am very glad to meet you, life has dreams, each is wonderful.
I have taken a lot of gambles in life
Swinging millions in leverage every week
But the biggest gamble you can take these days is the women you pick to be by your side
Pick the right one you change your life
But pick the wrong one you in a hole hard to get out of
Stay smart