My wife left me today. She said it was because I “never stop talking.” I said the yen carry trade is a $20 trillion leveraged bet that the Bank of Japan will never normalize rates and she said “I’m taking the dog.”
Let me explain to you what I was trying to explain to her.
For thirty years Japan ran rates at zero. Zero. Free money. So the entire planet borrowed yen for nothing and bought literally anything with yield. Treasuries, Mexican peso bonds, Nasdaq, your uncle’s crypto. That’s the carry trade. It’s not a strategy. It’s a short volatility position wearing a business casual outfit.
Then in August 2024 the BOJ raised rates 15 basis points. FIFTEEN. And the yen ripped, the Nikkei fell 12% in a day, and the VIX printed 65. That was the tremor. That was the trailer.
She said “you said this last year.” I said YES AND I WAS RIGHT, THE MARKET JUST FORGOT, and she started packing.
Japan’s debt-to-GDP is roughly 250%. The BOJ owns over half the JGB market. They are the market. There’s no price discovery, there’s a guy in Tokyo with a printer and a dream. Every basis point higher on the long end costs them real money on debt they can never actually repay in real terms. So what do you do when you can’t default and you can’t pay? You inflate. You always inflate. It’s the only tool that doesn’t require anyone to vote.
She said “our marriage counselor thinks you have anxiety.” I said your marriage counselor doesn’t know what the 30-year JGB is doing and she said “NOBODY KNOWS WHAT THE 30-YEAR JGB IS DOING, THAT’S THE POINT, PAUL.”
My name isn’t Paul. That’s how far gone we are.
Anyway I’ve got canned goods, a Kagoshima yield curve chart laminated above the bed, and nobody left to explain it to. So it’s you now. Buckle up.
Aldous Huxley — author of Brave New World and one of the 20th century’s great thinkers — took LSD on his deathbed & passed away while tripping.
Here is his wife, Laura, talking about the experience in a 1998 interview.
Fun Fact: The President of the goddam United States paid nearly $6 million in damages today to a woman he raped. Once upon a time, this would have been the only news you heard.
The US loves to boast about how wealthy it is, but its wealth is concentrated in the hands of a few oligarchs.
US oligarchs are so insanely rich that they make average wealth seem very high.
But *median* wealth in the US is lower than in Slovenia & Portugal, and half of Italy's
People really think civilization will survive when this gets exponentially worse. As if people in a hyper-individualistic society experiencing crisis-levels of scarcity will just happily make room for a billion climate refugees
There is a better way.
Play the penalty shootout straight after 90 mins.
The winner of the shootout gets a 0.5 goal lead going into 30 mins of extra time.
Now the team that lost the pens has a chance to win and crucially, no matter score, there is one team that has to go for it at all times, making extra time fun too.
Es ist wirklich nicht zu fassen. Wir regulieren in diesem Land jeden Firlefanz, weil angeblich irgendwer vor irgendwas geschützt werden muss. Aber Schwerkranke bei knapp 40 Grad im Krankenzimmer nackt in ihrem Schweiß liegen lassen, das ist okay.
https://t.co/h2PxNSCUm8
i feel very obligated to let all the nerds know that there is a free game like geoguesser where you guess the location of origin and time period for art and historical artifacts. really high level:
The scary part about Anthorpic's Fable nerf is not that it refuses to answer biology or cryptography. It's that it foreshadows what's coming. A world where a couple companies decide what you can and cannot do. They're building a new ruling class and you're not in it...
Really interesting plan for a tower in Malmo, Sweden.
Four, family sized apartments per floor, all with three bedrooms. Living space on the corners. Two winter gardens per home. Plenty of storage. Single stair!!!
By Christoph Hilger