Phil James

Super nice bald dad. Once rode in a safe car with Ralph Nader. 🐻 ⬇️. Nerd for polls and history. Your grandma voted for Debs.🌹

[Phil James @GoodMilkshake]

@adamkjohnston We've decided that we don't celebrate traitors.

[Phil James @GoodMilkshake]

@EllaMullenbach Drop out and become a full time paid protester

[Phil James @GoodMilkshake]

@GrassleyWorks @IowaGOP Retire @ChuckGrassley

[Phil James @GoodMilkshake]

@ChrisStreetProj Iowan here with a gay kid. I’m pissed.

[Phil James @GoodMilkshake]

@MappingFL @turek4iowa Imagine what this feels like having a trans kid in Iowa. It’s punching down. Outraged

[Phil James @GoodMilkshake]

@citygaltheaweso @AdamRapfogel And 80% of people in 1964 Alabama supported segregation. It’s cowardice

[Phil James @GoodMilkshake]

@AdamRapfogel People in these replies don’t have to live in my state with bigotry so thick it basically told my gay 20 year old to move out of state. It’s punching down. I voted for him already, but I won’t be volunteering.

[Phil James @GoodMilkshake]

@kdanbaybe I said it in the Brian Griffin voice and I called off the ambulance

[Phil James @GoodMilkshake]

@Mike_from_PA Angie’s moonshot path to 50.1%:
🌜Black turnout 69%,
🌜Hispanic turnout 55%,
🌜White turnout 60%,
🌜Nixon at 85%/58%/40% respectively
(8.1 mil turnout)

[Phil James @GoodMilkshake]

@smi29939566 @sansouccio @IowaSOS I’m still assuming a 2024 R electorate until proven otherwise.

[Phil James @GoodMilkshake]

IA EARLY VOTE: 10/23-Source: @IowaSOS

207,858 ballots received (+24.4% vs. same pt in 2022).
🔵 Dem: 105,780 (50.9%)
🔴 GOP: 66,555 (32.0%)
⚪ No Party: 34,932 (16.8%)
NP up 59% vs. 2022

🚨🚨 Truth Nuke: In 2022, Dems had a 39,819 lead. In 2026 it's 39,225. 🚨🚨

[Phil James @GoodMilkshake]

I can’t think of a more worthless waste of campaign funds. Talk about punching down. What a chickenshit ad this is.

[AdImpact Politics @AdImpact_Pol]

#IAPol: "No Iowan should face discrimination. As a Paralympian, I also know it's important to have rules. It's why I oppose males competing in female sports ... I'm against taxpayers paying for sex changes, too."

Josh Turek is up with a new #IASen ad.

Future reservations:
🔵$18.0M 🔴$15.5M

[Phil James @GoodMilkshake]

@Julesnader386 I already voted for him. But you better believe I told his campaign manager how pissed I am. This and the border wall bullshit

[Phil James @GoodMilkshake]

@RyanRhodes @RobSandIA @ZachLahn It means I don’t want to handcuff the state if it’s in a fiscal crisis. And stopping the tyranny of the minority in its tracks is why NO is the true position of those who value liberty and democracy.

[Phil James @GoodMilkshake]

@mj_from_kansas Nah I know Josh. he’ll be more like Slotkin

[Phil James @GoodMilkshake]

@JohnRin24839097 @jaymoney93 @IowaSOS He’s averaging about +15% with IND

[Phil James @GoodMilkshake]

@davidslosttt 249/57/30
But I’d dance for 230/52

[Phil James @GoodMilkshake]

That’s my president

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

Illinois Governor JB Priztker dresses up as Buzz Lightyear for Halloween early.

[Ryan McComb @ryanjmccomb]

People noticed this earlier this week, but resort and big-city counties are among the biggest sources of campaign donations per resident.

I wrote about why ski and island towns stand out in my breakdown of VoteHub’s new national donor map.

[Phil James @GoodMilkshake]

@yegnev @captainrln @IowaSOS It’s not Emerson. They’re running a 40% R electorate sample. R 39.8% D 31.2% NP 29.0%. That’s right on the money. 2022 final was 41.6/34.3/23.5

Independents are smashing EV so far so that 29 might be perfect.

[Phil James @GoodMilkshake]

@friendlybish14 EV is almost identical to the 2022 turnout numbers at this point.

However, EV in Iowa is *massively* bluer than 2024, which is why I use 2022 as a guide.

26 EV drop compared to 24, 11 days out:
D -21.9% (drop compared to 24)
R -46.9% (drop)

2024 is an unfair comparison.

[Phil James @GoodMilkshake]

Nixon’s moonshot path to 50.1%:
🌜Black turnout 69%,
🌜Hispanic turnout 55%,
🌜White turnout 60%,
🌜Nixon at 85%/58%/40% respectively
(8.1 mil turnout)

[POLITICO @politico]

Obama endorses progressive insurgent Angie Nixon for Senate in Florida https://t.co/ibBbkdmpzg