In a sudden turn of events, US 12-month inflation expectations have surged to 5.2%, the highest level since March 2023.
In just 3 weeks, markets have gone from pricing-in rate cuts to rate hikes.
BREAKING: Iranian officials have "become reluctant" to even discuss reopening the Strait of Hormuz as they "focus on surviving" US-Israeli attacks, per Bloomberg.
BREAKING: The UK's 10Y Government Bond Yield has officially risen above 5.00% for the first time since 2008.
Europe is bracing for another wave of inflation amid a worsening energy crisis.
BREAKING: The IEA has issued a warning stating that the Iran War is the greatest threat to global energy "in history."
Details include:
1. The IEA says it could take 6 months or longer to fully restore oil and gas flows from the Gulf
2. Roughly 18 million barrels of daily crude oil supply remain offline
3. Russia’s Nord Stream pipelines are not operational adding further pressure
4. There is currently "no immediate way" to replace the supply of oil from the Gulf
Today concludes week 3 of the Iran War.
BREAKING: The odds of the US entering a recession in 2026 have surged to 36%, per Polymarket.
US gas prices are on track to hit $4.00/gallon next week.
PUTIN OFFERS TO STOP INTEL TO IRAN IF US CUTS UKRAINE
Russia proposed to the U.S. that it would halt sharing intelligence with Iran if Washington stopped providing intel to Ukraine. The offer, made by envoy Kirill Dmitriev to Trump aides in Miami, was rejected.
Europeans worry Moscow aims to split the U.S. from its allies. Russia has increased intelligence and military support to Iran, despite calling reports “fake news.”
The Kremlin said Ukraine peace talks are “on hold,” while the U.S. continues limited intelligence sharing and weapons deliveries to Kyiv. Recent easing of Russian oil sanctions has further alarmed European leaders.
The 10Y Note Yield is now up 45 basis points in 3 WEEKS.
If April 2025 taught us anything, it’s that President Trump does not want the 10Y Yield above 4.50%.
We are 10 basis points away.