To follow up my prior tweets as the current environment of small caps change - just some thoughts for anyone who got run over in a bad way this week.
$OCTO $CWD or any of the others.
Reality is you never think it'll be you until it is. That's a fact. The game is ALWAYS changing and they're just waiting for that one misstep.
I think the bigger picture here is not blowing out just retail traders but at some point they will be coming for clearing firms.
One should expect tighter risk controls as these happen more and more often. You'll likely be mad at your broker but, you're not the one going in the hole when a client blows up beyond their account equity. In the end, they're protecting not just themselves but you, too.
Typically we just think about what we could have made vs. what you actually would have lost had you been able to size in the amount you really wanted to. Most times that size comes after the name opens up attempting to get out of a bad decision only to 2-3x the loss.
Each time we've seen this craziness they get more and more lethal.
And, retail traders never think it'll be them. You're one stubborn hold away. One front side SIZE trade away. One missed cover away. Doesn't even mean you're a bad trader most of the time but when a stock "breaks" and you see an algo come in etc. you're signing up for it by pushing the button.
It's hard as a small cap trader to keep excelling because you think the answer is continually scaling up risk as a % of account, but at some point the numbers don't work in small caps AND you actually become your own risk.
It's better to be a small fish in a big pond.
Not the big fish in a small pond.
I personally don't take crazy risk anymore in small caps there are times I wish I did, surely. But those times we are just thinking about the reward, not the risk that it took to get that reward. No different than Chinese IPO rigger names. Most only look at the -90% drop but, not the ones that didn't work.
I too, see everyone absolutely crushing the game and surely get some FOMO. But, its weeks like this where I know it'd be a huge draw down, weeks, months or a years worth of work is gone if risk is ignored. And, look you can do all the right things but if the liquidity isn't there, the liquidity isn't there.
The more traders that start to size opportunities the more whipsaw candles we have. The moves become more lethal as all liquidity is taken at all cost. We've obviously had all the signs suggesting this was bound to happen, lots of "close" calls where traders sit down, take a deep breath and say "damn that was close." but it's at that moment you need to be real with yourself, make an agreement with yourself and make proper rules going forward.
I applaud anyone who makes it work but I save my high conviction for stuff like $OPEN $DJT $MSTR $SMCI set ups. If I lose I lose, at least I know my risk and there isn't outlier/unknown risk.
It's probably PTSD from circuits probably in years past probably doesn't help the days I LEARNED. Or just overall fear of what we've seen continually get more and more aggressive.
I am strictly speaking from short side.
There has been endless opportunities long side for solid traders. That's always work in progress for me and I've sucked with it since COVID. I see some insane traders making insane moves especially on weeks like this. Kudos to them.
But, for most it's no issue. Point of this tweet is once you extract a decent chunk from small caps, get out of the game that controls you and focus on large caps, bigger picture and letting your trades work for you ie: @TheShortBear
You'll NEVER see him trade this crap because that's the ONLY way he can risk his career - outlier black swan event. He doesn't need to risk his career anymore.
A goal for me this year was to not get into situations or stocks where I can't quickly leave the desk. You know damn well which names those are. Most of these fall into that category. Again, work in progress. I've done much better but recognizing it gets you half way there.
I'm not really one to talk yet, transition to less is more has taken me two years and still awork in progress. This is also my current journey.
I think the goal should always be to graduate from small caps, trying to become a BEAST in small cap land has a ticking clock.
Goal should be to use small caps for income and/or $ to plug into bigger opportunities that work for you whether it be investing or passive income. The goal should not to be to keep getting bigger and bigger in small cap land.
Otherwise, the game never ends and eventually catches up.
I wish I realized this earlier in my career or maybe didn't ignore it - ie: develop more of a bigger picture look a few years earlier.
So if this was 'your week' I'll leave w/ this - every great trader I know had this kinda week (myself included).
It built the foundation for them, taught them what never to do again and served as a wake up call that no matter what happens risk management is ALWAYS number one.
"But I couldn't fill" and "it was too thin" was known upon entering the trade. THAT is part of risk management.
Yes, volume will let you get away with it most times, until it doesn't.
That's the point.
When traders finally confuse volume with actual liquidity - that's when you're exposed.
I'll leave with this - the markets that taketh also giveth. It was an outlier event. Zoom out. Look at how you've done over the long term - this is a hiccup. Faster you get back to equilibrium faster you're back on the horse.
I always used to put my tail between my legs and trader smaller after a big loss and always admired @elkwood66 for getting right back to it, cuz reality is the next two days after a big blow out are going to give SO MUCH opportunity faster you can clear your head faster it's an event of the past.
Hope this helps 🍻
Hey man, admire your work and how much you give to the trading community.
But to make any kind of conclusions on something you have to look at it as a bigger picture. And even though previous administration was tolerant to a lot of things, but overall, it was hurting everything in the bigger aspect. You might not agree with radical approach of Trump to a lot of things but overall bigger picture looks very promising and good for American people.
One suggestion , just zoom out like you preach in trading. That’s how I look at things.
Blessings man!
Biggest trade on the month💰, don't think I've ever traded $GC futures before. I had watched that flush on Sunday open on it. Bought a freaking crap ton on this capitulation turn. Was hoping for back up into 2930. Good scalps on $JTAI $AIFF today as well. Taking out $NQ swing into weekend, not worth tail risk, wil continue to hold the $SPY calls. This GC move solid A setup and was prepared for it.