Robert Gottlieb

Co-founder, Precious Metals Industry Expert - Author of Mastering Gold and Silver Markets

[Robert Gottlieb @GottliebGold]

For daily institutional precious metals data, analytics, and research, visit https://t.co/weCZbbr9Qb. #Gold #Silver #PreciousMetals #FOMC #CentralBanks #Investing #Commodities #WatchGold
Views are my own and provided for educational purposes only. This is not investment advice.

[Robert Gottlieb @GottliebGold]

It was a volatile week for precious metals. Gold and silver came under significant pressure following a more hawkish-than-expected FOMC meeting. #Gold #Silver #PGMs

[Robert Gottlieb @GottliebGold]

For now, patience remains the key. The market needs time to absorb recent macro developments, rebuild confidence, and establish a stronger technical base before the next sustained move higher.

[Robert Gottlieb @GottliebGold]

Views are my own and provided for informational and educational purposes only. This is not investment advice.

[Robert Gottlieb @GottliebGold]

Will it be:

• Stronger industrial demand?
• A surge in investment demand?
• Lower interest rates?
• A geopolitical resolution that unlocks risk appetite?

Or something else entirely?

Curious to hear the market’s thoughts.

[Robert Gottlieb @GottliebGold]

Major question:

If silver remains in a structural supply deficit...

Yet inventories are building, lease rates are below 1%, and metal is flowing back into the CME...

What ultimately tightens the market again and pushes silver through its previous highs?

[Robert Gottlieb @GottliebGold]

#Silver is beginning to make its way back into the U.S. as the July CME silver EFP moves above comparable OTC forward rates.

That shift may be telling us something important about the current state of the physical silver market.

[Robert Gottlieb @GottliebGold]

Major takeaway:

The physical silver market currently appears well supplied.

• Chinese inventories are rising
• India is trading at a discount
• Lease rates remain low
• EFP economics favor metal moving back into CME warehouses

The market may need a new catalyst.

[Robert Gottlieb @GottliebGold]

At the same time, silver has recently outperformed gold.

And the longer-term supply-demand deficit story remains intact.

But I believe a genuine resolution to the Iran crisis may be needed for gold to decisively break to new highs — and for silver to follow with conviction.

[Robert Gottlieb @GottliebGold]

For those expecting another major wave of silver shipments into the U.S.:

The July EFP will likely need to move substantially higher before the arbitrage becomes attractive enough to trigger large-scale inflows.

[Robert Gottlieb @GottliebGold]

As of Friday, approximately 711,000 ounces were reported delivered into CME warehouses.

That shouldn't be surprising given the current market structure.

The arbitrage has flipped.

[Robert Gottlieb @GottliebGold]

Today, the economics have shifted.

Silver has effectively stopped flowing out of CME warehouses.

With the July EFP yielding more than 4%, the incentive now favors shipments INTO the CME rather than out of it.

[Robert Gottlieb @GottliebGold]

One thing I've learned over the years:

Silver flows to where it is most needed.

We've watched that happen repeatedly over the last year as metal moved aggressively into the U.S. whenever EFP economics justified the shipment.

[Robert Gottlieb @GottliebGold]

India is also trading at a discount following the recent increase in import duties.

Taken together:

• Chinese inventories rising
• Indian demand softening
• Lease rates below 1%

None of these are typical signs of a market struggling for physical metal.

[Robert Gottlieb @GottliebGold]

Meanwhile, Chinese inventories continue to build.

According to recent data shared by Hugo Pascal, combined SHFE + SGE silver inventories have risen to a 7½-month high:

• Total: 1,864 tonnes (59.9M oz)
• SHFE: 956 tonnes
• SGE: 907 tonnes

[Robert Gottlieb @GottliebGold]

Silver OTC forward rates in London remain firmly in contango from 1 month out to 5 years.

The 1-month lease rate is now below 1%.

That’s a very different backdrop from the periods of tightness we saw over the past year.