Graham Stephan NP

Real Estate Investor

[Cointelegraph @Cointelegraph]

🔥 BULLISH: Public companies have bought a net 166,984 $BTC this year, more than 2x the 81,153 $BTC mined YTD, per BTC Treasuries..

[Graham Stephan NP @Gra_StephHQ]

The silent plan to erase the national debt: Full post – https://t.co/fwlJGeTOro…

[Graham Stephan NP @Gra_StephHQ]

In today's Substack post, I talked about how to see this coming and what you can do to protect your wealth once it kicks in.

[Graham Stephan NP @Gra_StephHQ]

How do you erase a massive national debt without raising taxes or defaulting? You quietly tax the savers.

[Graham Stephan NP @Gra_StephHQ]

🇯🇵 LATEST: Micron has broken ground on a $9.3 billion chip plant expansion in Japan to produce advanced AI memory chips.

[Graham Stephan NP @Gra_StephHQ]

$BTC has some solid liquidity clusters sitting above current price.

[Graham Stephan NP @Gra_StephHQ]

There's also a massive pool of long-side liquidity building below $57,000.

[Graham Stephan NP @Gra_StephHQ]

What crypto coin do you still believe in?

[Graham Stephan NP @Gra_StephHQ]

JUST IN: Bitcoin reclaims $63,000

[Graham Stephan NP @Gra_StephHQ]

250🇺🇸

[Graham Stephan NP @Gra_StephHQ]

What crypto coin do you still believe in during the bear?

[Graham Stephan @GrahamStephan]

What a difference 24 hours makes 🫣

[Graham Stephan @GrahamStephan]

Why are so many people turning to 0DTE options, high-leverage crypto, and prediction markets? Because for a lot of people, the math of a traditional life is no longer making sense.

@kylascan talks about the "vibecession": a gap where economic data looks okay on paper, but the lived experience (the vibe) is one of hopelessness. When housing feels unaffordable and the cost of living keeps rising, a 1% moonshot on a lottery ticket starts to look like a rational choice compared to a safe path that feels like it's going nowhere.

I get it. It’s exhausting to feel like you’re doing everything right while the rules are changing mid-game. But the hard truth is that: Vibes are volatile, but time is an asset.

I learned this firsthand in 2008. I was starting out in real estate just as the world was falling apart.

The vibe wasn't just bad; it was apocalyptic. Everyone told me to wait because shadow inventory was going to flood the market and drive prices to zero. It was an emotionally distressing time to put any money on the line.

But I focused on a steady plan and rational calculation to buy my first property, and that turned into my first break.

I’m not saying history will repeat itself in the exact same way. I also happened to be incredibly lucky. Things could easily have gone south – the point is that I was controlling what I could and I wasn’t gambling away my future on a cynical lottery ticket. In some ways, the vibe now is gloomier though the economic reality isn’t that bad and it’s pushing people to go all in on very risky bets.

But I am saying that if you give in to financial nihilism and YOLO out of the game today, you won’t have the capital or the mindset to capitalize on the opportunities that always emerge from the wreckage.

If I were navigating this today, here is how I’d stay grounded:

- Protect your seat at the table: Don’t let the sight of a neighbor getting rich on a meme coin trick you into risking your survival fund. You have to stay in the game to win it.
- Filter the Noise: Epistemic drift is real. The internet will always provide evidence for why you should despair. Verify the information.
- Control the Controllables: We can’t fix interest rates overnight, but we can fix our personal skills and our cost of capital.

It’s madness to mortgage your future on the frustration of today. It feels like the world is ending every few years. It hasn't yet.

Stay rational, stay patient, and stay in the game.

[Graham Stephan @GrahamStephan]

YouTube used to be just a hobby.
What's the next YouTube?

[Graham Stephan @GrahamStephan]

$BTC aspired for the Blackrock seal of approval for years. The ETFs would take them mainstream and bring in massive inflows of capital. They got what they wanted.

But they forgot that when you invite Wall Street in, you change the market structure entirely. The power moved from Owners to Renters.

Before the ETFs, the market was dominated by Owners.

These are people who view Bitcoin as a long-term asset. Whether they use hardware wallets or exchanges, they are here for the 10-year cycle. They do sell bitcoin and cause crashes – but it isn't because the stock market is crashing or the vibes are off. Owners saw Bitcoin as uncorrelated with the rest of the market, and behaved that way.

The ETFs flooded the market with Renters.

These are investors who view Bitcoin as a temporary trade – think pension funds, hedge fund investors, and macro traders. They don't want to own the house. They might not even believe in Bitcoin as an asset. They just want to lease the price action.

ETFs pumped in a lot of money that took Bitcoin to all-time highs. But the problem with the ETFs is that they also removed the friction. If a Renter gets scared because the stock market dips, they can dump their entire Bitcoin position with a single click, right alongside their losing tech stocks just to feel a bit calmer.

Bitcoin is no longer priced by the high conviction of the Owners who are willing to weather the storm. It is priced by the anxiety of the Renters who are leaving the moment the rent gets expensive. This is turning market dips into Bitcoin crashes.

The correlation between the Nasdaq 100 and Bitcoin was as high as 0.8 recently.

The industry wanted the institutions. They got them. Now they have to deal with the baggage they brought with them.

Bitcoin is no longer an uncorrelated asset or a safe haven.

To learn how your strategy needs to change, read the deep-dive on my newsletter. I'll be dropping the link in the comments.

[Graham Stephan @GrahamStephan]

This article is a wake-up call if you think AI isn't going to seriously change your life.

[Graham Stephan @GrahamStephan]

The U.S. government is estimated to lose roughly $400b-$600b per year to waste and fraud. Why don’t we just start there…

[Graham Stephan @GrahamStephan]

This podcast completely reframed my mindset around AI - definitely give it a watch!

https://t.co/BXP4NeEu1f

[Graham Stephan @GrahamStephan]

Sam Altman previously stated that “some firms are attributing job cuts to AI, when in reality, those layoffs were already planned or would have occurred regardless.”

He describes this, along with other exaggerations of AI capabilities, as "AI washing"….a tactic aimed at masking business issues.

Just sayin’

[Graham Stephan @GrahamStephan]

Lots of homeowners locked in with sub 3.5% mortgage rates, they can't sell + get the price they want, so they rent their home out instead. More rentals = lower prices across the board.