Grace Seybold

SF author/poet, copy editor, SCAdian, knitter of complex socks. she/her.

[Grace Seybold @GraceSeybold]

The newest e-book anthology from Grace&Victory Publications, A QUIET AFTERNOON 2, features 27 cozy, upbeat SFF stories for a peaceful break from a stressful world. https://t.co/g7EafoS0PP

[Grace Seybold @GraceSeybold]

More sports interviews like this one please.

[Winnipeg Jets @NHLJets]

we asked Eric Comrie some questions

[Grace Seybold @GraceSeybold]

@sarahhollowell Seanan McGuire's "Middlegame" is gorgeously creepy.

[Science girl @sciencegirl]

Area formula for polygons

[The Associated Press @AP]

Researchers say an AI-powered transcription tool used in hospitals invents things no one ever said https://t.co/mRjYfdxWgR

[Grace Seybold @GraceSeybold]

@lmay4528 @drseanmullen @DrEricDing @JeromeAdamsMD @cdc Some research shows antihistamines may help mitigate an infection (covid can use H1 receptors as well as ACE2 receptors, and if those receptors are already "taken up" by antihistamines, they're not available for covid to attach to).
https://t.co/o0FfeX5DuZ

[Grace Seybold @GraceSeybold]

@spacevalkyries Congratulations!!! That's fantastic and worth being so proud of!

[Grace Seybold @GraceSeybold]

@KeyTryer Have you read Susannah Clarke's "Piranesi"? It's exactly about this sort of place, an endless series of empty rooms filled with water and statues. It's such a quiet aesthetic.

[Grace Seybold @GraceSeybold]

@sarahabriel @ShaunaMarieMack @sackvillenovasc So, there's evidence that SARS-COV-2 binds to histamine receptors as well as ACE-2 receptors, so taking antihistamines when infected with covid (to "block" the H1 receptor) may be a good idea, and unlike paxlovid it's available to most people OTC.
https://t.co/o0FfeX55Fr

[Grace Seybold @GraceSeybold]

Further evidence of pervasive post-Covid cognitive impairment. This is all very discouraging.

[Sue [email protected] @inkblue01]

"The study suggests that acute COVID-19, regardless of Long COVID status, is linked to an increased risk of car crashes presumably due to neurologic changes caused by SARS-CoV-2."
https://t.co/fboi88hGqX

[Grace Seybold @GraceSeybold]

@AlexArrelia I've been using https://t.co/dSdDunsrWw which blocks the AI nonsense.

[Tara Moriarty @MoriartyLab]

With the transition of Canadian COVID-19 reporting to the combined respiratory virus dashboard, weekly COVID-19 deaths for Canada are no longer publicly reported by @GovCanHealth .

According to the most recent report, participating provinces reported 971 hospitalizations and 131 deaths for the period from Aug 25-Sep 28/24.

During the same period, Quebec, which accounts for 22% of the Canadian population, reported 4,691 hospitalizations and 256 deaths (current INSPQ data).

If hospitalizations and deaths are similar in Quebec and the rest of Canada (likely), the national report for the Aug 25-Sep 28/24 period should include at least 21,323 hospitalizations and 1,164 deaths.

Based on the most recent @CIHI_ICIS reporting of Quebec in-hospital COVID-19 deaths (Apr 1/22 to Mar 31/23), there were 1.28 times more documented COVID deaths in QC hospitals than were reported by INSPQ for the same period. However, CIHI captured only 84% of INSPQ-reported hospitalizations in QC for this period, meaning QC in-hospital deaths were likely ~1.52 times higher than deaths reported by INSPQ.

About 70% of all deaths in QC occur in hospitals (StatsCan), meaning actual COVID deaths were likely ~2.17 times higher in QC than reported by INSPQ, at least from Apr 1/22 to Mar 31/23.

Is QC reporting only "from" COVID deaths and excluding deaths of people who would have died anyway from other causes?

To test this, we can compare excess mortality estimates from @StatCan_eng for the same period, after correcting them to remove excess mortality attributable to toxic drug deaths and excess cancer deaths (stand-in for potential excess mortality attributable to delays in access to healthcare and MAID).

The StatsCan excess mortality program has been paused for the last 10 months, so estimates for QC are only available up to Sep 2/23, and are still incomplete for weeks before this date.

However, weekly age-adjusted per capita all-cause mortality rates for QC and other provinces are still published every month, meaning weekly excess mortality can still be estimated by comparing weekly mortality rates in one year to mortality rates in the same week of the preceding year, and using these ratios to estimate current excess mortality values compared to previous years when estimates are more complete.

From Apr 1/22 to Mar 31/23, there were 2.19 times more excess deaths in Quebec than reported COVID deaths, after adjusting for excess mortality attributable to toxic drugs and cancer.

This is very close to the CIHI-based estimate of actual COVID-19 deaths (2.17 times higher than reported by INSPQ for Apr 1/22 to Mar 31/23).

Taking the average of both methods for estimating under-reporting in QC, we know that for the year ending Mar 31/23, INSPQ reported 46% of "excess/from" COVID-19 deaths.

If we assume the magnitude of under-reporting of COVID-19 deaths by Quebec was similar after Mar 31/23, then from Aug 25-Sep 28/24 there were likely 558 excess/from COVID-19 deaths in Quebec, and 2,537 COVID-19 deaths in Canada.

Recall, the total number of COVID-19 deaths in Canada from Aug 25-Sep 28/24 reported on the new respiratory virus surveillance dashboard from PHAC: 131

So, it's likely that the new national COVID-19 dashboard is reporting, ~5% of "excess/from" COVID-19 deaths in Canada.

However, reporting of COVID-19 deaths by Quebec has actually worsened since Mar 31/23.

How do we know this? Because from Apr 1/23 to Jun 8/24 (the last date when age-adjusted all cause mortality rates are available from StatsCan), there were 6.37 excess deaths for every COVID-19 death reported by INSPQ, after adjusting for excess mortality attributable to toxic drugs and cancer.

So, from April 1/23 onward, Quebec has likely been reporting only 16% of its COVID-19 deaths.

If the under-reporting rate for Aug 25-Sep 28/24 was the same as for Apr 1/23 to Jun 8/24, then there were likely 1,630 "excess/from" COVID-19 deaths in Quebec from Aug 25-Sep 28/24, and 7,407 "excess/from" COVID-19 deaths in Canada during the same period.

Recall, the total number of COVID-19 deaths in Canada from Aug 25-Sep 28/24 reported on the new respiratory virus surveillance dashboard from PHAC: 131

So, it's likely that the new national COVID-19 dashboard is reporting, fewer than 2% of "excess/from" COVID-19 deaths in Canada for the 2024 respiratory virus season to date.

And no, Canada doesn't have exceptionally high COVID-19 mortality rates.

From December 2021 to March 2023, the estimated median weekly COVID-19 infection fatality rate for Canada was 4% LOWER than the median infection fatality rate for the UK calculated from ONS infection estimates and confirmed COVID-19 deaths, even though Canada is slightly older than the UK and has had lower rates of fresh vaccine dose uptake than the UK from 2022 onward.

What was the median weekly SARS-CoV-2 infection fatality rate for Canada during this period? 0.08747%

What was it in the UK? 0.08824%

Open access ref for UK IFRs: https://t.co/N29sDNwpqY

Why are so few of Canada's COVID-19 deaths reported?

It's likely that at least in part it's because many/most(?) provinces now only report deaths in people infected for the first time, as @sarperotto has confirmed for BC via official communications from BCCDC.

From Dec 4/21 to date, the average person in Canada has had ~3.5 SARS-CoV-2 infections. Reporting only deaths associated with first time infections would reduce reporting by ~70%....meaning only ~30% of deaths would have been reported if this policy was in place in every province.

On top of that, testing in Canada during Omicron has declined ten times more than the decrease in infection and fatality rates, meaning that a substantial number of deaths and hospitalizations simply wouldn't be detected because of under-testing.

So, it's probably a combined issue of under-reporting and under-testing, but either way, it's an enormous problem.

As the Office of Canada's Chief Science Advisor Dr. Mona Nemer @ChiefSciCan has pointed out, Canada currently has gaps in the effectiveness of our communication about COVID-19 vaccines. Fewer than 15% of people in Canada got fresh doses in the fall 2023 campaign.

Perhaps if we started reporting more than 2% of actual COVID-19 deaths on our new national respiratory virus reporting dashboard people would better understand why getting a fresh vaccine is so important, and journalists would have real numbers they can use to help communicate about the issue.

I don't know who else to copy in on this post--it's like shouting into the wind, and I don't know what it will take for Canada and ALL provinces to start improving actual COVID-19 deaths and hospitalizations.

@picardonhealth @NightShiftMD @DrGorfinkel maybe you can help resurrect a national conversation on this topic.

[Grace Seybold @GraceSeybold]

@chantz_y @ChiefSciCan And, if anything, it understates this part: "studies
have demonstrated a long risk horizon lasting two to three years" (p. 4) because we don't *have* longer-term studies yet. We don't actually know how long it lasts.

[Grace Seybold @GraceSeybold]

@polisisti The OED, like most dictionaries, is descriptive; it lists what people are doing. Enough people have mixed the words up that this is now listed as a variant. However, I think it's worth knowing what the distinction is.

[Grace Seybold @GraceSeybold]

@abbyobenchain @DocMCohen We are out there! Still paying attention to the science. I'd love for this to be over (and I'm optimistic about the early trial results for the nasal vaccines in development in terms of actually preventing transmission) but we aren't there yet.

[Grace Seybold @GraceSeybold]

@Anglo_Futurist Dang, I want that to put towels in.

[Grace Seybold @GraceSeybold]

@TalesFeathers The gosling told me it was his favourite rock, too heavy to carry with him. I took it down to the seashore after they left and added it to the breakwater, built with generations of favourite stones, that forms the safe still harbour the geese return to in the spring.

[Grace Seybold @GraceSeybold]

@DocMCohen I was able to order tests from Shoppers online this week, but they're $7 per test (not per box of 6; per SINGLE test) plus shipping. Most people aren't going to be willing to go to the trouble and expense just in case.

https://t.co/GXFySwOOUt

[Grace Seybold @GraceSeybold]

@cevasco_m Thank you!

[Grace Seybold @GraceSeybold]

My latest story is out at Beneath Ceaseless Skies!

[BCS Online Magazine @BCSmagazine]

Live in BCS #414 now: "At the Stopping Place" @GraceSeybold. "Jinnie decided this person was human; he was dressed in serpentine high style, all flowing colours and no hair. He had also, she noticed with a sigh, left a trail of ashy mud from the door." https://t.co/csmfskRvp2