Graeme Bethune

Independent energy analysis and strategy. RT are items of interest, not endorsements.

[Bob McNally @Bob_McNally]

https://t.co/Zt5ksflVMf

[Stephen Stapczynski @SStapczynski]

Oil companies sign controversial climate pact at COP28 🛢️

⚠️ The deal will spark criticism from environmentalists because none of the companies agreed to reduce oil & gas production
🏭 Instead, the 50 companies pledged to stem methane emissions by 2030

https://t.co/uE6jxBB7gy

[Thierry Bros @thierry_bros]

#WorldLNGSummit
Why are we waisting time speaking on 🟢 H2 when we've heard 🇪🇺 Commission stating that considerable amount of LNG will be needed for the next 25 years as long as methane emissions are solved?
🟢 H2 is an expensive fantasy & distraction

[Thierry Bros @thierry_bros]

My dystopian energy scenario gets unfortunately higher propobility every day vs Sultan Fatih Net Zero fantasy scenario.

After India forecasting +60% production between 2022-2030, Australia reopens closed coal mine...

And this just before COP28 even started...

[Saul K @saulkavonic]

This CIS announcement is a big deal - a major market change.

Labor is now well down the road towards a predominantly Government controlled and funded energy system. Government is resorting to taxpayer money to bail it out of the energy market mess it has created.

This effectively dismantles the ESB, replacing it with an unaccountable 'whatever Bowen feels like' decision making process.

Rolling CIS actions will see taxpayers guaranteeing minimum revenue to projects that will aid project finance: It might help but not attain the 82% RE target, as transmission is still the main hurdle in NSW which is the biggest market.

But there will be unintended consequences for investment: It will deter private investment (which will now wait for subsidies instead of going ahead), hinder the development of private funding offtaker structure for batteries, and deter investment from all capacity investors who made investments based on no subsidies and will now face have their returns dilutes by artificial competition. In turn the government will feel pressured to subsidise more to make up for drying up private investment, creating a visious cycle of ever increasing government intervention and taxpayer subsidies.

Its an admission that the government is very worried about blackouts and is trying to fix it. But without using the best solution which is gas, because they also need to pander to the greens. So they are resorting to more expensive and less effective solution at taxpayers expense.

The details are not disclosed and the reason for not disclosing is poor. There is every reason to believe taxpayers are on the hook for an expensive price.

Its questionable if our energy market will survive in any meaningful way after this government is done with all of its interventions.

[Graeme Bethune @Graeme_Bethune_]

Has Australia reached peak natural gas production? - EnergyQuest php the_permalink() via @EnergyQuest

[Graeme Bethune @Graeme_Bethune_]

https://t.co/t8ThpDQ0pf

[Graeme Bethune @Graeme_Bethune_]

https://t.co/p4Bydth7Hj

[Graeme Bethune @Graeme_Bethune_]

Unions step back from strike at Chevron amid last-minute talks https://t.co/EnCUqqXks1

[Saul K @saulkavonic]

‘We don’t bluff’: Woodside unions move closer to gas strike https://t.co/HeZ77p3JSF

[Saul K @saulkavonic]

LNG strike: There may be some loud public rhetoric and lower-level industrial action to begin with, as the parties test their positions.
But in all likelihood an accommodation will be reached before it presents a material impact on global LNG supply https://t.co/WTyegvdH58

[Saul K @saulkavonic]

European gas prices spike 40pc on fears of strikes in WA - 'The situation highlights the importance of Australian LNG for global energy security, with even the possibility of a disruption to Australian gas supply causing large price spikes as far away as Europe' https://t.co/vpvBrUHMlv

[Bjorn Lomborg @BjornLomborg]

Do we live in a world on fire?

For more than two decades, satellites have recorded fires across the planet’s surface. The data are unequivocal: Since the early 2000s, when 3% of the world’s land caught fire, the area burned annually has trended downward.

https://t.co/lrDbIM0eQD

[Stephen Stapczynski @SStapczynski]

In this context, major super grid projects (like Sun Cable) seem exceedingly difficult 👀

https://t.co/pADSj8biUa

[Thierry Bros @thierry_bros]

Back to reality...

[Graeme Bethune @Graeme_Bethune_]

Australia no longer Japan’s ‘most trusted’ LNG supplier https://t.co/1g1sfQoNeo
See my OIES paper for detailed analysis:
https://t.co/RsfIHEAZsO

[Graeme Bethune @Graeme_Bethune_]

Russia's natural gas is "stuck" in the Arctic. Now the petrochemical industry moves in https://t.co/ASkO9YWVtd

[Graeme Bethune @Graeme_Bethune_]

China prioritising Turkmenistan over Russia in next big pipeline project https://t.co/RsffCfQ6GP

[Australian Energy Producers @au_energy_prod]

"Net zero is not a no new investment case. The logical question is where that investment should be."

Prof. Andrew Garnett highlighted urgency is required to decarbonise, while assuring energy flows where needed.

#APPEAConf #leadshapeinnovate #acceleratingtonetzero #energy

[Graeme Bethune @Graeme_Bethune_]

https://t.co/839x7B7O2H