I don't normally publish conversations with Downing Street but this was my initial exchange with Downing Street's then director of communications over Mandelson failing vetting on 11 September last year.
The arguments about Iran are so polarised that no one wants to admit that several things are true at once:
You'd be a fool not to have serious reservations about the idea of a regime change war, especially in the Middle East.
You'd also be a fool to allow terrorist-funding lunatics to develop nuclear weapons.
Neither the people condemning these strikes, nor the people cheering them on know how this is going to work out.
So far, Trump Administration interventions have been extraordinarily successful in achieving valid objectives within a highly limited scope.
The strikes on Iran during the 12 day war achieved destruction of several nuclear facilities.
The Venezuela operation decapitated the hostile regime and replaced Maduro with a non-hostile leader.
Both also achieved significant "don't fuck with us" deterrence globally.
However, it is not remotely clear at this moment in time whether something similar can be achieved in Iran.
I understand and fully empathise with the people who think regime change is not going to work in Iran and you'll end up with the same as what you had or worse.
And I understand just as much the people who celebrate an evil dictator being killed and Iran's nuclear and military assets being degraded further.
The thing we do not know, and the thing that will determine whether this has all been worth it, is what the future leadership of Iran will look like. This seems to me to be the biggest risk Donald Trump has taken at any time in his first or second term. If it pays off, the reward both domestically and globally will be huge. If it doesn't and things go south, it could derail his Presidency and define his legacy like Iraq did for Blair and Bush.
Very few people have any idea which of these scenarios is more likely and one thing is for sure: none of them are talking about it on social media because they're all sitting in command bunkers, not on X.
I hope the people of Iran are released from living under tyranny. I hope the peoples of the Middle East can live in peace.
I hope the takeaway for any would-be terrorist is the realisation that October 7 might not have been such a good idea.
I hope that with the Middle East stabilised, the US can turn its attentions to the theatres that really matters to the security of the West: Russia and China.
Whether any of that happens remains to be seen and it seems the hardest thing for anyone to do is to not express an opinion before the smoke has cleared.
‘There are an estimated 39,000 jihadists on MI5’s terrorism watchlist. That’s enough to all but fill Stamford Bridge, or two Manchester Arenas. And as the old saying goes, they only need to be lucky once’
Me in the @Telegraph on the foiled Manchester attack
The British Establishment has a simple rule:
The problem is never the problem. The problem is people who dare to point out the problem.
Grooming gangs, illegal immigration, terrorism, men in women's prisons, Net Zero.
Same playbook every time: "racist", "denier", "Nazi".
You'd think when you're calling a beloved children's author a Nazi, you'd maybe stop and pause. But no.
Another part of the rule is that no matter how right the "bad" people turn out to be, they remain tainted by having been right.
Feminists like JK Rowling were vilified for opposing puberty blockers being given to children. The government rowed back on the policy. But the women who spoke out against it are still considered bigots.
Grooming gangs turned out to be racist anti-white hate crimes. If this had been done by an invading army, it would be rightly treated as a war crime. But the people who covered it up and ignored it are still the "good" people and the people who complained about it are still the "bad" people.
The same is true of illegal immigration. Islamism. Net Zero.
And this is why the country is screwed. Because we live in a society where the golden rule is that you must tolerate the intolerable or you'll be made a pariah for caring about the safety of British women and girls, for wanting a cohesive society, for wanting a strong economy.
I've had enough of this and my sense is so have the British people. We won't keep quiet anymore. Call us all the names you want. It doesn't work anymore.
When will you accept that there are muslims who genuinely believe it’s their religious duty to kill you and subjugate the world to Islam - and that these beliefs aren’t misrepresentations of Islam but are decrees factually and explicitly commanded in Islamic scripture?
It is not a religion of peace
That is the biggest con pushed by Islamists who want all the above
The people of Iran who are risking their lives for freedom under an Islamic totalitarian regime are the real heroes of our time. They face prison, torture, and death for the simple act of demanding dignity and liberty.
Meanwhile, the woke left in our Western capitals cosplay as “human rights defenders” while flirting with movements and regimes that traffic in terror, repression, and mass murder.
Real courage is shown by Iranian women removing their hijabs in public, by students facing live ammunition, by families burying their dead and still returning to the streets.
Chanting slogans in the safety of Western capitals while legitimizing oppression is not activism—it is ideological narcissism.
History will remember the difference. One side risks everything for freedom. The other risks nothing while making excuses for tyranny.
Two dominant narratives have seriously damaged Europe’s economy and social fabric.
First: the claim that all cultures are equal.
They aren’t. Some cultures integrate better with liberal democracy, rule of law, and productive capitalism. Non-selective immigration overwhelms welfare systems, depresses wages, increases social tension, and ultimately destroys public support for the welfare state. A welfare state only works when contributors vastly outnumber dependents.
Second: the Net Zero climate hysteria.
Europe produces just 7% of global emissions, yet it has chosen deindustrialization, expensive energy, and capital flight in the name of moral purity. Even total European zero emissions would have a negligible impact on global temperatures, while the economic damage is massive and self-inflicted. Europe pays twice for energy than China or the USA.
Both narratives share the same flaw: ideology over reality. The result is a continent that moralizes, regulates, and declines. Europe doesn’t need more virtue signaling. It needs selective immigration, cheap energy, industrial competitiveness, and policies based on facts, not dogma.
Breaking News⚡️: "Let's smash the living shit out off Farage, ensure that he and @reformparty_uk don't win, by fair means or fowl, employing all manner of dirty tricks". Former advisor to PM Johnson Dominic Cummings lays out Starmer and the UK Deep States plans for Nigel and Reform.
🚨Mr Cummings quotes EU Commissioner Von Der Leyen, who stated this year that she and the EU will, "Employ the same tactics as they did with Eastern European countries, i.e 'Colour Revolutions', to stop countries being taken over whose policies we disagree with".
This assessment is exactly what we are witnessing across the Western World, barring Hungary, Poland, Italy and certain States in the USA.
Young leftist women in 1979, holding up a picture of Ayatollah Khomeini, calling for the modern-day version of the intifada.
Here’s the difference. They won.
At the time, women in Iran had unparalleled rights, beyond anywhere else in the Middle East. They had full suffrage, could hold high office, freedom of dress, and were present in parliament, courts, ministries, and diplomacy. They were widely educated and professionally active in law, medicine, engineering, academia, and the arts. In terms of civil and legal rights, they were equal to—and in some cases ahead of—western women in the 1970’s.
Yet, it wasn’t enough. They wanted revolution. They had been seduced by the false promises. They wanted the Islamist figure who swore to free the oppressed from the oppressor and bring about heaven on earth, a utopia in Iran. We all know how this story ends. Lynchings, eye gauging, amputations, and mass graves.
Now, westerners are falling about themselves in the same giddy delirium, hungry for a glimpse of the nightmare Iranians still haven’t woken up from.
I guess that’s why they say those who don’t know history are doomed to repeat it.
Control your country’s borders - or your government will end up trying to control you to prevent you complaining about the consequences of uncontrolled borders.
Commentary has concentrated on yet another huge tax hit in Rachel Reeves’ 2nd Budget — as well it might — but not enough attention has been paid to her continued addiction to borrowing — on top of a record tax burden.
Back in March the OBR said the 2024/25 Budget deficit would be £137bn. Turned out to be £150bn
Back in March OBR forecast £117bn deficit for 2025/26 (current financial year). Now it says £138bn.
Back in March OBR forecast £97bn borrowing 2026/27. Now it says £112bn.
So in only three years borrowing will be almost £50bn more than the OBR thought it would be only as recently as March.
It’s also interesting to note that even at the end of the last financial year (March 2025) the OBR was still out on the budget deficit for the financial year just ending (2024/25) by £12bn!!
So why would you pay any attention to what it says the deficit will be in 2030?!