Andrew the Psycho-Statistician

Cisgender. He/Him. Statistician. Ex-Nevadan and Ex-Bucks County, PA, Resident. Podcaster:

[Andrew the Psycho-Statistician @Great_Chumpion]

@doggintrump A very strong Democrat with a fascinating history in the state legislature in a blue wave, in awkwardly implemented version of ranked choice voting (I want every state to have GOOD RCV) where the Republicans who need to work together, they hate each other too much

[Sam Alberti @sam_alberti]

gill is like ossoff’s wario

[Andrew the Psycho-Statistician @Great_Chumpion]

@hutchinson Wow do you think maybe the establishment attacking them might have something to do with it? (Rhetorical question, El-Sayed does comparatively well with independents and conservatives, it's "vote blue no matter who" liberals who seem iffy on him)

[Andrew the Psycho-Statistician @Great_Chumpion]

@DreamLeaf5 I want to breath fire

Everybody else here has good ideas and applications, fair!

*I want to breath fire*

[Andrew the Psycho-Statistician @Great_Chumpion]

@ZxelJoshua @JHawleyStan The Democrat is a very strong candidate from the state legislature, yeah that blue wave is coming it's not reverse 2022, and the two leading Republicans in their rank choice voting system hate each other's guts and won't work to get their voters rank the other one second

Safe D

[abby @eevee_noises]

charlie deeds done kirk cheap

[Andrew the Psycho-Statistician @Great_Chumpion]

@harmonia_queen High quality Democratic candidate + blue wave year + Republicans who refuse to work each other with rank choice voting

[Andrew the Psycho-Statistician @Great_Chumpion]

@tetrarosie A fellow safe D Alaska believer!

To anybody wondering, there is no path for a Republican, the Dem is VERY strong, it's obviously a blue wave year, and if needed the two leading Republicans HATE together and won't work together; at worst ballot exhaustion will win Dems the seat

[Andrew the Psycho-Statistician @Great_Chumpion]

@hippo_politics Incredibly strong local Democrat running in a wonky version of RCV (a system I support when well implimented!) with the two leading Republicans hating each other and refusing to work together like you need to under rank choice voting.

Blame it on a wonky system.

[Andrew the Psycho-Statistician @Great_Chumpion]

@yunggoonologist Few other Nate is brave enough to say Alaska is safe D but I agree, there literally is no path for anybody else

High quality Dem in a blue wave year getting the benefit of a wonky variation of RCV, when the Republicans won't work together, means right now there's one path

[Andrew the Psycho-Statistician @Great_Chumpion]

@AlDefinitely There isn't a viable path for any Republican in the Alaska race.

A strong Democrat, Republican candidates who hate each other and refuse to co-campaign like they HAVE to to beat the Dem.

Blame it on a terrible implementation of RCV (which usually is very good)

[Andrew the Psycho-Statistician @Great_Chumpion]

@USA_Polling There's no path for a Republican in Alaska with their system

The Democrat running is very high quality, and with this wonky implementation of ranked choice voting, both Republicans would have to work together... Which they refuse because they hate each other.

Safe D Alaska

[Andrew the Psycho-Statistician @Great_Chumpion]

@AezzieUwU It's not an established pollster so take it carefully

With that said, the full results are illuminating, they show the libertarian takes entirely from Achilles, not Risch; if somehow true it would imply an anti-incumbent shift, not a shift to the left.

[Andrew the Psycho-Statistician @Great_Chumpion]

I agree with Silver on Alaska, there is no visible path for any Republican to take down a high quality local Democrat in Alaska's specific ranked choice system without working together, which they have no intention of doing because the top two Republicans hate each other.

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

Silver Bulletin ratings changes

US Senate
Kansas: Likely R—>Lean R
Michigan: Lean D—>Likely D
——
Governor
Alaska: Likely D—>Safe D
Georgia: Lean D—>Likely D
Nevada: Lean R—>Toss-up

[Andrew the Psycho-Statistician @Great_Chumpion]

@AzelfDaGirl Alaska governor has a very high quality Democrat and two Republicans who hate each other and won't campaign with each other like you need to do in rank choice voting, given how well Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins did in the primaries, I don't see a path for anybody else.

[Rowan Fornow 🚵🚉🏙️🦣🇵🇸 @rowanfornow]

@CanaanQuest Here's a perfect example of Loud Sports Bar-centered advertising in my opinion. Abdul's name being pasted at the top of the screen for the entire ad for seemingly no reason - except for when bad headlines are on the screen - is the most obvious tell
https://t.co/SCvZ4SFWIP

[Andrew the Psycho-Statistician @Great_Chumpion]

@Polls0Politics Eh, the DSA candidate in Florida is fine.

DSA is really good at grassroots campaigning, and Florida reporters are shocked at a state-wide race doing what's the bare minimum elsewhere.

Florida was never winnable by Vindman, but we have somebody actually building infrastructure.

[Andrew the Psycho-Statistician @Great_Chumpion]

@StatisticUrban Listen, sometimes a guy just wants to breath fire

[Andrew the Psycho-Statistician @Great_Chumpion]

The Cheney last name hurt Harris with people who think what the US does is undescribably horrible than the already undescribably horrible 9/11

Which is a pretty common in people who say "both sides are the same", if you would listen instead of lecture

[Hutch @hutchinson]

Pick one. You cannot have both.

1) Have the opinion that Kamala Harris hurt her campaign by including Liz Cheney

2) Act shocked when Republicans use “America is worse than al-Qaeda” guy to attack El-Sayed