Green Pool Commodities

Green Pool is a trusted source of insight with global sugar and ethanol markets, blending climate and crop agronomy. Retweets aren't endorsements.

[Green Pool Commodities @GreenPoolComms]

@BrokerSofts of what?

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@BClyde62937 @theupsettrader yes, saw that today

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Brazil's gasoline import arb has never been this big - it looks as though the govt is paving the way to allow Petrobras to raise gasoline prices, finally! Hydrous prices have fallen, but are now very competitive, at 64% of gasoline price (SP). Expect ethanol use to rise sharply.

[Green Pool Commodities @GreenPoolComms]

@1Suga_Bear It's already 62% parity in Western SP, and likely will go below 60% in coming months. Ethanol prices are sliding, but do they need to go dramatically lower? Drivers take time to adjust to lower ethanol prices - but they will.

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@theupsettrader @BClyde62937 but it has been announced by Lula, just a confirmation right?

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@rahilshaikhMEIR The question is - what is falling faster - production or consumption? And how long before India's government bans sugar exports?

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@sugarcapuchin @1Suga_Bear @tx_marcelo @petrobras Perfect

[Green Pool Commodities @GreenPoolComms]

@1Suga_Bear @sugarcapuchin @tx_marcelo @petrobras well, that's what the analysis says. We respect your right to disagree.

[Green Pool Commodities @GreenPoolComms]

@sugarcapuchin @1Suga_Bear @tx_marcelo @petrobras Was sorta imagining you had all the answers?

[Green Pool Commodities @GreenPoolComms]

@1Suga_Bear @sugarcapuchin @tx_marcelo @petrobras So is it "fully adjusted" for international prices? Only if the gross downstream margin were to be cut by 60%. If margin were kept as per normal operations, full import parity at a retail level for Gasoline A in Brazil would rise a further 8.8%.

[Green Pool Commodities @GreenPoolComms]

@1Suga_Bear @sugarcapuchin @tx_marcelo @petrobras So, if Petrobras is 85% wholesale, other 15% at import parity (light green & blue), then yes, some adjustment to import parity has been made, but Petrobras holding on Gas A is allowing wider margins downstream for some. Full import parity with prior downstream margin 8.8% higher.

[Green Pool Commodities @GreenPoolComms]

@sugarcapuchin @tx_marcelo @petrobras Vaguely recalling minority shareholders had a bit to say about that in the past.

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@rahilshaikhMEIR @MarexGlobal @meircommodities and, the increased capacity and early start has done no favours for the crush results.... too much, too early, makes for a very early finish

[Green Pool Commodities @GreenPoolComms]

India sugar output seen lower than forecast, curbing exports https://t.co/nzqMHUBvXD

[Green Pool Commodities @GreenPoolComms]

@ARealSugarExprt Wonder if the market's big bear still favours a massive crop this year and next, with exports of 2 mln mt this season?

[Green Pool Commodities @GreenPoolComms]

@rahilshaikhMEIR @StephenGeldart It is very evident that India's past consumption figures were inflated by smuggling into Bangladesh, which was counted as "domestic use". It wasn't. Those who don't go back and adjust past figures are bound to have this wrong. It hasn't been "stuck" - agreed with you Rahil.

[Green Pool Commodities @GreenPoolComms]

@ARealSugarExprt Australia seems to be working to a "scarcity" theorem - just in time for some lousy global prices. Harking back to your cricket analogy, not so much poor preparation or dropped catches, but unfavourable weather.....

[Green Pool Commodities @GreenPoolComms]

@ARealSugarExprt Seems to be a consensus around 102 mln mt amongst trade buyers of Thai sugar? The "unlikely to make 100 mln mt" view of your prior note is being ignored? It seems 100+ would require excellent yields elsewhere to compensate the spreading white leaf disease damage.