A week ago .....
@RoryStewartUK was under fire from ministers for saying the Govt should question its modelling & ban large gatherings.
Seven days later the modelling has been, er, updated and social distancing imposed.
A long time in politics ...
An entire town in Italy was tested, ~3000 people. Found that 50-75% of COVID-19 cases are completely asymptomatic, but contagious!
"The isolation of asymptomatics is essential to be able to control the spread of the virus and the severity of the disease "
https://t.co/EhSvrlYmsM
There was big appetite amongst the public for stronger action from the government and more social distancing, just before they brought the new measures in.
BREAKING: The entire UK strategy for fighting #coronavirus was based on false analysis. Scientists advising the Gov’t now say the UK only realised "in the last few days" that its Coronavirus strategy would "likely result In hundreds of thousands of deaths" https://t.co/F0hd2e3g9H
@BullshineBoy@SadiqKhan The vast majority of independent retailers are not 'taking the piss', nationwide the number of retailers inflating prices will be tiny.
@erudito8702@SadiqKhan@OnLondon Interesting to compare Andy Burnham as mayor of greater Manchester, with Sadiq Khan as mayor of London.
One has achieved a great deal more than the other.
@pootankerdriver@Starcourse@RoryStewartUK As of yesterday, the UK was testing at a per capita rate of 1/10 of South Korea, and 1/6 of Norway.
Link to source data is in the tweet I was replying to.
https://t.co/tvHuaG8Sae
Rory Stewart got it right, all along - while practically every other UK politician was slavishly following the flawed British Government scientific advice, advice which was so much at odds with the approach of practically every other European and Asian country.
It's important that Londoners now pay special attention to what we're saying about non-essential contact and to take particularly seriously the advice about working from home and avoiding confined spaces such as pubs and restaurants." https://t.co/JJ6aBpEjYg
This (from scientists at Imperial) powerfully illustrates how the UK Govt’s more restrained approach to “flattening the curve” would have entirely overwhelmed hospital capacity. (NHS capacity is the red line at the bottom). Which is why suppression remains the least bad option.
It’s quite simple
1. China and others proved you cd suppress at least buying valuable time
2. UK were ceasing testing + accepting an increase that was too steep for NHS capacity and socially unsustainable
3. (Perhaps most importantly) I knew the UK models and decision-makers
Scientists at Imperial now conclude that the UK strategy of “flatten the curve” could not have kept cases within the capacity of our health care system. Hence the need - despite the risks - for much more aggressive closures + suppression on the Chinese or South Korean model.
The Government must act decisively and fast to avoid today's announcement becoming a catastrophe for the pubs, restaurants, hotels and attractions that have relied on tourists and Londoners to stay afloat: https://t.co/r9RJAF4St2
Calling all manufacturers who can support our National Effort for #coronavirus ventilator production - to help, contact Government Business Support team: 0300 456 3565 / [email protected]