@roddreher@BRad24365 But that’s a you problem. You all feel that way because you’re a bunch of sore ass losers who can’t deal with losing election sometimes. You’re all pathetic and weak.
@lisa_4_la@4nn8rn He did get a fair chance. He lost. Just because you’re a sore loser who can’t handle defeat, doesn’t mean it didn’t happen. It definitely did and people who understand election data could’ve told you that ahead of time. but you decided to throw a tantrum and undermine democracy
@lisa_4_la Not one liberal in the entire planet is upset about what’s happening in LA, because the only thing that’s happening there is the accurate counting of votes. You are all just pathetic losers.
@LegionDagger@VoteHub If you know anything about election data, you would know that this is not a good drop for Steyer and not what he needs, but you don’t so you’re gonna make stupid assumptions.
The math isn’t wrong … the premise is. And ChatGPT literally told you this in the answer you posted.
Read Part 2 again: “The usual conclusion would not be ‘wow, what a lucky fluctuation,’ but rather that the batch is not representative of the earlier ballots — for example, it came from a different geographic area, voting method, demographic group, or subset of voters.”
That’s not a loophole. That’s the entire explanation. Mail-in ballot batches in LA are NOT random samples of the electorate .. they’re geographically and demographically clustered.
The binomial probability model you’re using only produces those astronomical odds if every ballot is an independent random draw. They aren’t.
Raman’s base (Hollywood, Silver Lake, Highland Park) holds ballots longer. Progressive voters in CA are well-documented late mail-in submitters. Analysts predicted this blue shift before election night. Karen Bass trailed Rick Caruso in 2022 and caught up the same way.
A UC Berkeley/LA Times poll taken two weeks before the election had Raman at 25% and Pratt at 22% — virtually tied. A Loyola Marymount poll had her at 32.5%. A 40% batch share from her geographic strongholds isn’t a statistical miracle. It’s exactly what the data predicted.
You asked ChatGPT the right question. It gave you the right caveat. Then you just ignored it. Because you’re a fucking idiot
@JohnnyWoodard He ran a terrible campaign. He appealed to MAGA and nobody else. People freaking hate Trump and he’s doing a horrible job. Spencer Pratt doesn’t know what he’s doing. Maybe a Caruso type would’ve done better but you guys put up this fool.
@Mickiflodi@HowieLongggg@willchamberlain@krystalball But you actually just lost and you’re making sad excuses for it because you don’t understand how election math works. You’re the whiny losers who don’t understand what you’re talking about.