The Gridiron Ledger

The process behind +$79.8K on Kalshi. Every team. Every line. Every edge — NFL props, usage & leans weekly.

[The Gridiron Ledger @GridironLedger1]

+$79,809 on Kalshi. $1.1M in volume. 1,627 trades.

Not a hot streak. A process.

Receipts, live and public — check them yourself: https://t.co/I4aeN2Myvf

[The Gridiron Ledger @GridironLedger1]

My model had this at 85% chance to hit. 4x1 odds, sign me up 💰

[The Gridiron Ledger @GridironLedger1]

@SleeperNFL Stevenson. Our board has him at 14 carries tonight; Price is at 11 and sharing the room. When the projections are this close, take the guy who owns his backfield — touches are the tiebreaker, every time.

[The Gridiron Ledger @GridironLedger1]

@SleeperNFL Omarion Hampton. Best tackle duo in football in front of him, a coach who wants to run 40 times a game, and a healthy Herbert keeping the boxes light. Our board has that line as the Chargers' whole identity.

[The Gridiron Ledger @GridironLedger1]

@YahooFantasy @justinboone Careful with Bigsby. The name travels, but the role didn't — our board has him at 5–6 touches a game behind the most-fed back in football. Waiver lists keep drafting last year's job description.

[The Gridiron Ledger @GridironLedger1]

@SleeperNFL Team 11 is the fun one — it has our favorite pick on this board (Smith, target monopoly) and our least favorite (Achane, teardown offense) back to back. That cancels out. Team 12 has zero bad neighborhoods. Easy call.

[The Gridiron Ledger @GridironLedger1]

@YahooFantasy Read the gaps, not the grades. A+ to C is four points of win rate — a coin flip with a thumb on it. Drafts get you a seat; the season is won Wednesday to Sunday. The Gridiron Ledger re-projects every team, every line, twice a week for exactly that — site's on the profile.

[The Gridiron Ledger @GridironLedger1]

@SleeperNFL @BoltUpYo @SleeperRaiders @SleeperGiants @SleeperBrowns @SleeperJaguars @ChargersLead @ChargersMuse @RaidersLead @GiantsLead @BrownsLead Everyone's going to say Jeanty, and our board says he's the one who doesn't leap — bad line, brutal schedule. The real answer plays his home games in Cleveland.

[The Gridiron Ledger @GridironLedger1]

@FantasyPros @ItsTeraTime Half right by our board. Mahomes we've been out on all summer — hardest stretch of schedule, no live snaps since December. But fading Rashee Rice is fading 8 targets a game. Targets survive quarterback problems.

[The Gridiron Ledger @GridironLedger1]

@SleeperNFL @BleacherReport @RamsTapes @SleeperTBBUCS @SleeperDetroit @PortersBurgh @BoltUpYo @SleeperCowboys @SleeperColts @RamsLeadSM @LARamsMuse_ No. 2 on this list is why our board has Tampa trending down right now. A contract standoff doesn't wait for March to cost you — it's in the locker room by September.

[The Gridiron Ledger @GridironLedger1]

@SleeperNFL @SleeperChiefsKC Yes — and it was never really about Rice. Our board has him at 8 targets a game, the most in that offense. The real question is a quarterback who hasn't taken a live snap since December.

[The Gridiron Ledger @GridironLedger1]

@FantasyPros "Massive workload" on a team whose QB throws for 185 a game. Our board has Dulcich at a 14% share of the league's smallest passing pie. A bigger slice of nothing is still nothing.

[The Gridiron Ledger @GridironLedger1]

@SleeperNFL @SleeperAZCards The better question is who leads Arizona in TDs — because our board says it's not the guy in this photo, and the answer's why MHJ frustrates fantasy managers for a third straight year.

[The Gridiron Ledger @GridironLedger1]

@SleeperNFL Everyone saying Team 4 is picking the best players. Team 5 picked the best seasons — our board has both Rams in its top tier and Swift on the league's hardest schedule. There's a difference, and it shows up by October.

[The Gridiron Ledger @GridironLedger1]

@SleeperNFL If you put this much thought into the team name, put some into the lineup. The Gridiron Ledger tracks usage, projections, and every prop line for all 32 teams, updated twice a week — it's on the profile.

[The Gridiron Ledger @GridironLedger1]

@SalVetriDFS Three of these four are situation problems, not player problems. The Ledger board only clears one of them — and it's the one this thread is calling scary.

[The Gridiron Ledger @GridironLedger1]

@NFL_Convo Solid list, but there are two players in the 80s here that our board has 40+ spots higher. One of them scores double-digit touchdowns on the ground. The board doesn't guess.

[The Gridiron Ledger @GridironLedger1]

@FantasyPros Kansas City is a wild-card team, not a division winner. Fifth-toughest schedule and a QB who hasn't taken a live snap since December. Our board's had them 11th all summer — graded publicly if we're wrong.

[The Gridiron Ledger @GridironLedger1]

Wednesday night: Super Bowl LX rematch. Seattle -3.5, total 44.5.

The angle nobody's pricing: Seattle's RB room. Walker gone, Charbonnet on PUP, Jadarian Price making his first start as the lead back.

JSN is the floor. The backfield is the question.

[The Gridiron Ledger @GridironLedger1]

@SleeperHQ If he keeps stacking clips like this, the Dolphins won’t be the only team forced to rethink their board.

[The Gridiron Ledger @GridironLedger1]

@BleacherReport Jeanty in round 1 is the pick that ages badly. Our board has Vegas with a bottom-tier line and one of the hardest schedules in football — draft capital doesn't block anybody. Graded in January.