Mike

Average Trader

[Mike @Gripltandripit]

@_Ceiv @MowryKris @Lars57360069 You can easily go pull that data. It’s the last earnings so doesn’t matter about the stuff that’s dropped. UTHR Tyvaso sales are flat YoY and they don’t know what to tell analysts other than pump IPF, PPF, COPD. While LQDA is almost 1B sales, so yes the sky is falling for LQDA.

[Mike @Gripltandripit]

(1) For bulls and bears arguing $LQDA, INSM, or UTHR against each other. Look at where the respiratory disease TAM is headed. Only PAH and PH-ILD are est at $4B and $3B respectively by 2030. Throw in IPF and PPF and initial estimates are at $13B and growing for all indications.

[Mike @Gripltandripit]

@_Ceiv @MowryKris @Lars57360069 Meant next year H2 2027, however UTHR says they start Phase 3 COPD in 2028. LQDA CMO has been working the trial constraints for a year so I have no doubt LQDA is well ahead. UTHR knows Tyvaso wont work due to cough so their trying to cobble together Tresmi quickly into COPD.

[Mike @Gripltandripit]

@_Ceiv @MowryKris @Lars57360069 UTHR is going into Ph 2 COPD, LQDA starts Ph 3 this year and well ahead. UTHR doesn’t even know if their make shit up product of a mist inhaler even works, but sure they’re going to cure all 800K COPD patients with it.

[Mike @Gripltandripit]

@AnnaFlorcia Thanks for the updates. Seems fair for PAH today, but we all know there’s more to capture in PAH. Should easily get to $1.5B in PAH alone if business continues for another 1.5 years. Still think as you and others have stated $10B should be fair value 2H 2027.

[Mike @Gripltandripit]

@AnnaFlorcia My only concern is I could see RJ being passive about the $1B target and say something like late 27 / early 28, as they won’t know how sticky PH-ILD is yet. In time it won’t matter, just fear they won’t put an aggressive target out there. I hope I’m wrong though.

[Mike @Gripltandripit]

(8) If TPIP can’t produce positive results in PH-ILD, it will fail IPF/PPF, the lung disease is vastly different than PAH. Everyone seems to be looking past the poor PH-ILD data rather than questioning is the biological mechanism of TPIP suitable for fibrotic lungs.

[Mike @Gripltandripit]

(1) $INSM TPIP is getting significant credit for its potential across PAH, PH-ILD, IPF and PPF. But I think there’s an underappreciated risk in the existing PH-ILD data.

TPIP’s PAH Phase 2b results were impressive: ~35% placebo-adjusted reduction in PVR and +35.5m in 6MWD.

[Mike @Gripltandripit]

(7) is it possible that TPIP’s once-daily prodrug/exposure profile works extremely well for pulmonary vascular disease but is less effective in heavily fibrotic lungs. If true, high risk to PH-ILD, IPF and PPF.

[Mike @Gripltandripit]

@AnnaFlorcia I saw where UTHR is telling analysts that LQDA PH-ILD sales will stop and they have wait on transition numbers to come in to provide growth estimates. I expect UTHR isn’t being truthful, and are not actually capturing much of PH-ILD as they can’t titrate the dosage high enough.

[Mike @Gripltandripit]

(2) UTHR re-attack here has promise that RJ and team probably have an angle to gain approval in PH-COPD. FWIW LQDA is ahead in this race if they launch Phase III by end 2027. https://t.co/3y4C1WElGK

[Mike @Gripltandripit]

(1) UTHR was pumping at Chest announcement of phase II PH-COPD trial. Martine is pumping 400 - 800k patients noting this indication dwarfs PAH, PH-ILD, IPF, and PPF. $LQDA has been more reasonable with a 300k patient base. I believe the addressable patient pop will be much lower

[Mike @Gripltandripit]

@_Ceiv Let the sales speak, you’re putting too much faith in analysts, how well did that go at launch. LQDA will expand PAH market from here, it’s already proven this within 1 year, future sales will surprise to the upside.

[Mike @Gripltandripit]

@_Ceiv That is thinking ahead these numbers assume worst case nothing changes and L606 gets absorbed into PAH. Not worried about L606, they can get around Claim 1 with dose size and tidal breaths. Yes there will be a legal event, but less worried for L606.

[Mike @Gripltandripit]

@_Ceiv That’s sort of the point, either way they are fine. Will take 2-3 Q’s to shown there isn’t a significant disruption and it will be fine. Suspect given the 8K terms existing PH-ILD patients will lessen impact. Expect Q4 greater than Q3, but very small increase from initial impact

[Mike @Gripltandripit]

(6) The purchase of the business will pay for itself over 10 years while offering significant upside for the risks to include Reynauds, PH-COPD, PPF, IPF. Many will regret not buying here when the math catches up. The concern is it will be sold before the $2B realized.

[Mike @Gripltandripit]

(5) If you think a BP wouldn’t pay $8-10B for LQDA that worst case could do $1.5 - $2B sales/year for the next 10-15 years or longer as prostacyclin therapy is not expected to have major disruption for the next 10-15 yrs +, it will be a combined therapy with future antifibrotics.