Finom Group

Seth Golden, chief market strategist at . Top Charles Schwab trading hit rate 5 years running. Managing director Golden Capital Portfolio

[Finom Group @GroupFinom]

As I'm (Seth Golden) still trying to regain my X account (@SethCL), please feel free to follow me in our corporate X account until further notice. You can also contact our support team at Finom Group with any questions.

$SPX $SPY $QQQ $NYA $VIX $AAPL $NVDA $IWM $SMH $NDX

[Finom Group @GroupFinom]

$MCD has one of the best win percentage rates from July 2 - 10, so I bought it on July 1st (Since 2010) h/t @Bluekurtic

No go check out the price since?
You can trade/invest with me folks https://t.co/H6jfFQyXZN

$SPY $SBUX $CAVA $SPX $CMG

[Finom Group @GroupFinom]

Over Earning

Median 1-yr forward estimate $SPX stocks is 13.5%. Resides in a zone where SPX has risen at 10%+ annual rate. If analysts continue raising estimates, median earnings estimates could rise to unsustainable levels associated w/negative forward SPX returns

$SPY $QQQ

[Finom Group @GroupFinom]

Inflation adjusted #retail sales are always greater than retail sales except over last few years, and both are trending in the right direction for ongoing expansion cycle.

As evidenced in the chart, also NOT a leading indicator of a recession. Consumers spend, full stop #economy

[Finom Group @GroupFinom]

FY 2026 Bottom Ups EPS slightly lowered this past week, but FY 2027 EPS raised nearly $1/share.

On the whole, estimates continue to rise going into bank earnings season next week. Earnings inform to buy the dip!

$SPX $SPY $QQQ $DIA $KRE $JPM $WFC $BAC $NVDA $SMH

[Finom Group @GroupFinom]

S&P 500 Cycle Composite 2026

If tracking from here, $SPX still has legs to make higher-high into mid August, where it may then swoon until the Midterm-election, with then its biggest surge through year-end with all-time highs.

$ES_F $SPY $QQQ $DIA $IWM $RUT $SOXX $XLK

[Finom Group @GroupFinom]

Did Nike $NKE Just bottom and surge off the bottom on major volume?

$SPY $XLY $LULU

[Finom Group @GroupFinom]

My latest Finom Group Trading Room video episode (Wednesday) unlocked for your viewing!

$SPX $SPY $QQQ $VIX $IWM $MCD $NVDA $SMH $META

https://t.co/bxVj24EJtJ

[Finom Group @GroupFinom]

Is it finally safe to buy restaurant stocks?

Have $SBUX $CAVA $MCD $CMG finally bottomed.

Lower-lows seemed to have ended with Restaruant industry back above 50-DMA and 200-DMA, first time since January.

$SPX $SPY $QQQ

[Finom Group @GroupFinom]

2 things can be true at the same time:

1⃣This would be the least severe crypto winter ever
2⃣Crypto winters have never last 3 consecutive Qs.

$BTC $ETH $BMNR $IBIT $BITX $GBTC $SPX
h/t @BrianSozzi

[Finom Group @GroupFinom]

@R1chardMaur1ce @Bluekurtic that would be the expression of bad discipline and future bag holders of bad stocks. It's never a stock picker's market and usually a bad discipline market.

[Finom Group @GroupFinom]

Bullish call, simply using consensus earnings

2027 EPS = $397/share and reasonable 20X 5-yr avg. forward P/E Ratio

This math yields a price target of 7948, +8.1% higher than today

If P/E 22X, where year began, math yields 8250

$SPX $SPY $QQQ $SMH $NYA $NVDA $GOOGL

[Finom Group @GroupFinom]

Not a lot of time, but opportunity?

If you bought $QQQ on June 22nd close, and held 2 weeks (July 7th)…

Up 13 of last 15 years. Currently below closing price suggests opportunity to profit by Tuesday.

$SPY $NDX $SPX $COMPQ

[Finom Group @GroupFinom]

I’m anticipating a new all-time high before year-end, but would oblige $160s with capital allocation.

One day I will be wrong, but it won’t be here and with this one.

Targeting $270s - $280s

$SPX $QQQ $SPY $SMH $SOXX

[Finom Group @GroupFinom]

Oh Palantir $PLTR ... let me count the ways.

If it doesn't relaunch from here, it is unlikely to relaunch without testing the sub-$100 price.

$SPX $QQQ $SPY $HACK $CIBER $BUG $PANW $IGV

[Finom Group @GroupFinom]

$COMPQ rally of last few years almost exactly tracks its mid/late-1990s bull run. These 2 periods have similar macro backdrops. Both came after Fed rate shocks that didnt cause recession (1994 and 2022). Also a new disruptive technology (AI) like Internet 1990s.

$SPX $SPY $QQQ

[Finom Group @GroupFinom]

Rough sledding for $NVDA since earnings, but the most bullish and repeated performance is just ahead.
1-month before the Earnings Release data, NVDA shares have always delivered a positive return into earnings.

15 straight Quarters now.

$SPY $QQQ $NDX $SPX $SOXX $SMH $MU $SOXL

[Finom Group @GroupFinom]

Despite the surge in AI-related capital expenditures, the corporate Capex to cash flow ratio is still low, bullish for stocks historically (Ned Davis Research). The indicator was well into its bearish zone in 2000.

$SPY $SPX $ES_F $MAGS $META $GOOGL $NVDA $QQQ $MSFT $AAPL $ORCL

[Finom Group @GroupFinom]

The number of Nasdaq $COMPQ $NDX stocks that have generated massive gains of over 500% in the past 12 months has spiked but remains well below the speculative extreme seen in 2000. Not even half as much as 2021.

$SPX $SPY $QQQ $SNDK $PLTR $DIA $BTC

[Finom Group @GroupFinom]

My latest Finom Group Trading Room video episode (Wednesday) unlocked for your viewing!

$SPX $SPY $QQQ $VIX $IWM $MCD $NVDA $SMH $META

https://t.co/bxVj24EJtJ

[Finom Group @GroupFinom]

I’m anticipating a new all-time high before year-end, but would oblige $160s with capital allocation.

One day I will be wrong, but it won’t be here and with this one.

Targeting $270s - $280s

$SPX $QQQ $SPY $SMH $SOXX

[CyclesFan @CyclesFan]

$NVDA stopped the bleeding this week but as I posted last week it has already made an intermediate term top and I don't see it making a new ATH until the end of the year. The downside target is the lower band($164) but action could be very choppy before the final flush in Q4.