Aaron

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[Aaron @Gucciv1]

@tracksuitArch @ErlingRoIe No one tracked his run coz he ain’t a treat

[Aaron @Gucciv1]

@ryannnnnoly @markgoldbridge That Arsenal have been doing it for 18 months.

[Aaron @Gucciv1]

@DuniaSabin @markgoldbridge

[Aaron @Gucciv1]

@coder1959173284 @theficouple Because you’re engaging with it . The algorithm is feeding you

[Aaron @Gucciv1]

@AndyRob1968 @MUFCDarren_ It’s a fake quote

[Michael McNair @michaeljmcnair]

Gold and silver are not acting well in a period of rapidly rising geopolitical risks. We have an Iran War, Strait of Hormuz blockade, rising volatility. In the old framework, that setup should be close to ideal for gold. But once you understand what is now driving gold, this move makes perfect sense.

Something fundamental changed after the US and Europe froze Russian reserves in 2022. For decades, surplus countries parked their excess savings in US dollar assets, mostly Treasuries. The freezing of Russian reserves combined with the current administration's explicit push to discourage foreign countries from parking excess savings in US financial assets, forced surplus countries to rethink where they store reserves.

And those countries haven't changed their domestic policies that generate the excess savings, so those savings have to be placed somewhere. The result is that gold and silver have increasingly become the obvious “neutral” reserve assets.

That’s why gold decoupled from the three factors that used to explain it…real interest rates, volatility, and liquidity. Now reserve accumulation flows have become the primary driver.

That shift has a consequence I don’t think most investors have thought through. If gold is now primarily driven by reserve flows from surplus countries, then gold has become pro-cyclical.

Reserve growth is driven by export revenues, trade surpluses, economic growth in surplus economies. When the global economy is strong and surplus countries are generating large export revenues, their excess savings grow, their reserve accumulation accelerates, and gold catches a bid. When that surplus generation is disrupted, the bid weakens or reverses.

This is exactly what is happening with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

The GCC countries are major reserve/gold buyers and now their export revenues are collapsing. They likely need to liquidate some reserves to cover fiscal obligations, and gold is one of their most liquid assets. Even if the reserve sales aren’t excessive yet, the market can see their reserve accumulation has stalled and probably reversed. That flow, which was a meaningful source of gold demand, has gone to zero at best.

There are also secondary effects on other surplus economies. China is the world's largest oil importer. An energy shock of this magnitude slows Chinese growth, and compresses Chinese surpluses, which slows Chinese reserve accumulation. That same growth shock ripples through Korea, Taiwan, Japan, and the rest of Asia.

The whole chain that has been driving gold higher, surplus countries generating excess savings that need a home outside the dollar system, is being disrupted by an event that in the old model would have been unambiguously bullish for gold.

This doesn't mean the structural case for gold is broken. The dollar standard is still ending. Surplus countries still need an alternative to Treasuries and gold is still the most obvious destination. But it does mean gold is going to be more volatile along that structural trend than most people expect, and the volatility will correlate with global growth and surplus generation rather than with the old drivers. Gold rallies when surpluses expand. Gold sells off when surpluses contract. Even if the reason for the contraction is rising geopolitical risk that, under the old model, should have sent gold to the moon.

[Aaron @Gucciv1]

@classofzidane @ChuckieOnline Training day isn’t a biopic

[Aaron @Gucciv1]

@claudeai We are COOKED

[Aaron @Gucciv1]

@QuietObserverUK @hell_line0 You left your job because you couldn’t just say no?

[Aaron @Gucciv1]

@313educator @NaialCasanovas @MurrayHillGuy1 When did we all get so cynical, believe nothing and question everything

[Aaron @Gucciv1]

@cora_gold Diluted to oblivion 🤮🤮

[Aaron @Gucciv1]

$CORA
#gold

[Aaron @Gucciv1]

@silvertakeover Are people STILL adding to their positions ? I want to do the same, but feel accumulation phased has passed. Now it’s time to just let it ride. Could be wrong .

[Aaron @Gucciv1]

@SILVERMOON23325 @DonDurrett @realrockyrose @RealRickRule @AlexDeluce $OMI has done 12x in 13 months . That’s why

[Aaron @Gucciv1]

@ronin42069 @crypto_bitlord7 @DalkeKong3 Sold his account I think . He ain’t been tweeting like he used to

[Aaron @Gucciv1]

@G2Tradez @Cobratate @jmrphy He is exactly the same

[Aaron @Gucciv1]

@hajiyev_rashad Dollar strength . DXY crossed 100 when I checked today. Not good for PM

[Aaron @Gucciv1]

@AnfieldAgenda Slot knew Liverpool would lose with any team he put out. He tried to not totally kill the confidence of the first team.

[Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta]

It’s fascinating how Newmont is taking a hit today after disappointing the market with its production guidance.

The consensus narrative out there:

How can Newmont’s stock be down after reporting such strong earnings — more than 20% above its EPS estimates and 111% higher than the same quarter last year?

Here’s how I see it:

The market is starting to realize that most of the major miners are running into growth constraints.

These large companies have been depleting reserves for years while keeping exploration budgets minimal and doing little to acquire new deposits that could come online anytime soon.

No kidding, Newmont is now reportedly planning to acquire Barrick’s Nevada gold assets.

So what happens next?

Management teams will start feeling real pressure to find growth and expand their resource base.

The simplest way to do that is through acquisitions, in my view.

Exploration is slow and risky — but buying growth is faster.

This is a pivotal moment for earlier-stage mining companies with quality projects to step up their game.

Economically viable, large-scale deposits are about to come under serious demand from the majors, in my view.

My two cents on how this is likely to develop:

Buckle up for a major M&A cycle — this time led by big miners acquiring smaller companies, not just merging with other giants.

To reiterate, this is the cheapest and quickest way to add growth.

This is how a true mining cycle unfolds: capital first flows to the majors, then trickles down to the earlier-stage miners.

Game on.

[Aaron @Gucciv1]

@MaxxPayme @goldseek Let’s revisit this after tomorrow close. After hours is just that …