Guido Antonio Di Carlo

[Guido Antonio Di Carlo @Guercusguo]

@roisinmurphy In short: data ≠ panic. There’s a plateau, not a free fall.
If we separate visibility from fashion and look at social structure, the story becomes steady, not sensational. /5

[Guido Antonio Di Carlo @Guercusguo]

@roisinmurphy Hi @roisinmurphy — I’ve been running year‑by‑year survey data on gender identity (18‑22 y/o, 2021–2024, same as the chart). I think you’d find this part interesting: the supposed “collapse” in gender‑diverse youth isn’t showing up in national data. Here’s what I found 👇/1

[Guido Antonio Di Carlo @Guercusguo]

@roisinmurphy So, it’s not that young people stopped being gender‑diverse; the survey mix shifted slightly more conservative & less college‑attending in 2024. When we weight properly, identity rates stay level. /4

[Guido Antonio Di Carlo @Guercusguo]

@roisinmurphy What predicts variation (just a few)?
 Education (college exposure ↑)
 Religion (conservative faith ↓)
 Partisanship (Republicans ↓ vs Democrats)
 Ideology (conservatism ↓ vs liberalism ↑)
Those are stable cultural patterns — not a sudden generation reversal /3

[Guido Antonio Di Carlo @Guercusguo]

@roisinmurphy When you adjust the data for education, region, religion & politics (so you’re comparing like with like), year‑to‑year differences become statistically flat.
2021 ≈ 2024 once composition is controlled for. The “decline” is basically demographic noise. /2