Olivia
Online
: GT; Neutral-Player-Character.
@GuerrillaThink
: situationist.
salvage yards of "WA"
Joined March 2011
3.7K Following
831 Followers
13.8K Posts
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[A direct mechanism-design response to the “The AI Layoff Trap”. Endogenous self-terminating Pigouvian tax; deployable under existing federal authority. Seems like a good day to drop this. This is the kind of AI slop you might want to pass through an LLM]
https://t.co/PuJVGekrpU
Two economists just published a mathematical proof that AI will destroy the economy.
Not might. Not could. Will — if nothing changes.
The paper is called "The AI Layoff Trap." Published March 2, 2026. Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. Boston University. Peer reviewed. Mathematically modeled.
The conclusion is one sentence.
"At the limit, firms automate their way to boundless productivity and zero demand."
An economy that produces everything. And sells it to nobody.
Here is how you get there.
A company fires 500 workers and replaces them with AI. A competitor fires 700 to keep up. Another fires 1,000. Every company is behaving rationally. Every company is following the incentives correctly. And every company is building a trap for itself.
Because the workers who were fired were also customers.
When they lose their jobs faster than the economy can absorb them, they stop spending. Consumer demand falls. Companies respond by cutting costs — which means automating more workers — which means less spending — which means more falling demand — which means more automation.
The loop has no natural exit.
The researchers tested every proposed solution. Universal basic income. Capital income taxes. Worker equity participation. Upskilling programs. Corporate coordination agreements.
Every single one failed in the model.
The only intervention that worked: a Pigouvian automation tax — a per-task levy charged every time a company replaces a human with AI, forcing them to price in the demand they are destroying before they pull the trigger.
No government has implemented this. No major economy is seriously discussing it.
Meanwhile the numbers are already tracking the curve. 100,000 tech workers laid off in 2025. 92,000 more in the first months of 2026. Jack Dorsey fired half of Block's workforce and said publicly: "Within the next year, the majority of companies will reach the same conclusion."
Nobody is doing anything wrong. Companies are following their incentives perfectly. That is exactly the problem.
Rational behavior. At scale. Simultaneously. With no mechanism to stop it.
Two economists built the math. The math leads to one place.
Source: Falk & Tsoukalas · Wharton School + Boston University ·
https://t.co/4m8E9jQNYm
@AgroNationalism [i.e. pick the worst case scenario and prepare for it: endless false flags to provoke violence, more money laundering to illegals, and overall more chaos. I think the best play is networked agorist communities at scale. Economic power in crises might as well be political power.]
@AgroNationalism [im not sure we’ll be able to migrate them out of America unless a major crisis precipitates sea change in DC. I think it’s more likely we’ll see manufactured shortages cripple us while the “relief” is laundered to the invaders. Either way your solution is correct. ]
Tout le monde pense que le monde libre a gagné en 1989, à la chute du mur de Berlin.
C'est faux.
Et c'est exactement pour ça que le monde est aujourd'hui en feu.
Ce qui est tombé le 9 novembre 1989, c'est un appareil.
Une économie planifiée, un empire militaire, un mur de béton. Ce qui n'est pas tombé, c'est l'idée. L'idée que le monde se divise en oppresseurs et en opprimés. L'idée qu'il existe une égalité finale à atteindre, par tous les moyens. L'idée que tout ce qui existe (la famille, la nation, le mérite, l'héritage) est une structure de domination à abattre.
Cette idée-là n'était plus dans le bâtiment quand le bâtiment s'est effondré.
Il faut reprendre la chronologie, parce que tout est dans la chronologie :
Le communisme économique avait un défaut fatal : il était réfutable. Il promettait l'abondance, il produisait des famines. Il promettait l'émancipation, il produisait des barbelés. Budapest 1956, Prague 1968, L'Archipel du Goulag publié à Paris en 1973, les boat people de 1979 : à chaque décennie, le réel envoyait sa réfutation. Les boat people étaient une réfutation flottante, visible depuis les plages.
Alors l'idéologie a fait ce que fait tout organisme menacé : elle a muté.
La mutation a un nom, et j'en ai raconté la généalogie ici : la French Theory.
Foucault a déplacé la guerre du terrain des faits, où le communisme perdait à chaque fois, vers le terrain du savoir lui-même.
S'il n'y a pas de vérité, s'il n'y a que des rapports de pouvoir déguisés en savoir, alors plus aucune famine, plus aucun mur, plus aucun goulag ne peut réfuter quoi que ce soit.
La French Theory n'a pas enterré le marxisme.
Elle l'a rendu irréfutable.
Et la mutation a des dates. Toutes antérieures à 1989.
1934 : l'École de Francfort, chassée d'Allemagne, s'installe à Columbia. La critique de l'économie devient critique de la culture.
1964-1965 : Marcuse, exilé allemand devenu professeur américain, remplace le prolétariat défaillant par un nouveau sujet révolutionnaire (les minorités, les étudiants, les marginaux) et écrit noir sur blanc que la tolérance doit être accordée aux mouvements de gauche et refusée à ceux de droite.
Octobre 1966 : le débarquement a une date précise. Université Johns Hopkins, Baltimore. Derrida, Barthes, Lacan présentent la pensée française aux campus américains.
1967 : Rudi Dutschke lance le mot d'ordre, la longue marche à travers les institutions.
1968 : les révolutions de rue échouent partout.
Qu'importe. La révolution ne passera plus par la rue, elle passera par la salle de classe.
1975-1985 : Yale, Berkeley, Columbia absorbent la théorie, qui devient le système d'exploitation des humanités.
1987 : Allan Bloom publie The Closing of the American Mind pour donner l'alerte. Un million d'exemplaires vendus.
L'université le traite de réactionnaire et passe à autre chose.
L'Amérique avait son Aron, elle en a fait la même chose que nous du nôtre.
Puis arrive le 9 novembre 1989.
Le Mur tombe. L'Occident célèbre. Fukuyama avait déclaré la fin de l'Histoire dès l'été, avant même la chute. On démantèle les missiles, on encaisse les dividendes de la paix, on déclare le match terminé.
Nous avons célébré notre victoire sur une adresse vide. L'idéologie avait déménagé vingt ans plus tôt. Nous avons gagné contre les chars et perdu contre les chaires.
Pendant ce temps, l'autre empire communiste faisait la lecture inverse. Pékin avait écrasé Tian'anmen dans le sang cinq mois avant Berlin. Sinistre, mais lucide sur un point : la Chine savait que la guerre était idéologique.
Elle a choisi : abandonner l'économie marxiste, garder le contrôle du récit. L'Occident a fait l'exact opposé : il a gardé le marché et absorbé l'idéologie. Trente-cinq ans plus tard, regardez qui construit des centrales et qui déboulonne ses statues.
Vous voulez la preuve que c'est le même logiciel ? Faites la table de correspondance.
La lutte des classes est devenue la lutte des identités.
Les koulaks sont devenus les privilégiés.
L'autocritique maoïste est devenue le privilege checking. Les commissaires politiques sont devenus les DEI officers.
Le samizdat est devenu le compte shadowbanné.
La nomenklatura a quitté Moscou pour Davos et Bruxelles.
Et le paradis ne s'appelle plus la société sans classes : il s'appelle l'équité, l'égalité des résultats.
Exactement ce que je décrivais ici il y a quelques semaines.
On me dira : il n'y a pas de Goulag.
C'est vrai. C'est même tout le génie de la version 2.0.
Le communisme dur devait briser les corps parce qu'il ne tenait pas les esprits.
Le communisme mou tient les esprits : il lui suffit de briser les carrières.
Pas de camps, des services RH.
Pas de procès de Moscou, des excuses publiques.
Pas de Sibérie, la mort sociale.
Demandez aux émigrés du bloc de l'Est installés en Occident ce qu'ils ressentent en traversant une université américaine en 2026.
Ils reconnaissent l'odeur.
Et voilà pourquoi le monde est en feu.
Une civilisation a passé trente-cinq ans à enseigner à ses propres enfants qu'elle était le problème. Résultat : elle ne sait plus défendre ses frontières, transmettre son héritage, ni même nommer ses ennemis.
Quand la présidente de Harvard, devant le Congrès, répond que condamner un appel au génocide « dépend du contexte », vous voyez le logiciel tourner en production.
Et les prédateurs du dehors lisent cette faiblesse comme un livre ouvert : Moscou teste, Pékin patiente, l'islamisme avance dans les rues de nos capitales.
Le feu extérieur n'est que la conséquence du désarmement intérieur. On ne brûle bien que les maisons qui se sont vidées de leurs défenseurs.
Le Mur n'est pas tombé. Il s'est déplacé. Il ne sépare plus l'Est de l'Ouest : il passe désormais à l'intérieur de chaque institution occidentale, entre ceux qui construisent et ceux qui déconstruisent.
La première guerre froide s'est gagnée avec des missiles et du PIB. La seconde se gagnera avec des écoles, des médias libres et des modèles d'IA. Celui qui écrit les valeurs dans les machines écrira le prochain 1989.
Cette fois, ne nous trompons pas de victoire. Au travail.
@BrianRoemmele @ArticlesOnX [had this conversation at some tech in education conference in like 2012. I was there was because someone paid me $150 to record a few discussions. point is: literature is walked. old terrain. incentives matter.
I think you're describing money laundering.]
The reason is that industrial monoculture gutted 'town life' in the American Midwest.
Thousands of these towns are zombies, animated by social security, medicare, and real estate inflation.
Retirees own property, pay taxes for schools(property tax based off inflated land values from mass migration and money printing aka fake value) and employ hospital workers, artisanal small businesses, and subcontractors(plumbers, roofers, masons, carpenters, electricians, etc) all with that welfare money.
Iowa's entire state budget is $9.65 billion. These old age programs bring in over triple that number annually:
Social Security: $14.3 billion (2023)
Medicaid (federal share): $6.27 billion
Medicare: ~$11 billion (est.; 681k enrollees)
Over the next decade the boomers will pass and the money will dry up. The fake rural small town economies will collapse along with their real estate values, and the governments will be insolvent.
WARNING: They’re turning American farmers into data slaves.
The Palantir–USDA deal “One Farmer, One File” a permanent government digital profile tracking every farmer’s land, finances, crops, and livestock.
Drones are already vaccinating cows. Satellites + AI are next.
They call it “efficiency.”
It’s the infrastructure for total control over America’s food supply.
Voluntary today. Mandatory tomorrow.
This is how food sovereignty dies.
America is being farmed — not the land.
“There is a building material that does not burn, that does not rot”
“In 1937 the US Government made it a crime to grow the plant it comes from”
Probably nothing though, I wouldn’t worry about it.
We should all take a min to remember the American folk hero Marv Heemyer on his anniversary.
A reasonable man, forced to do unreasonable things by a corrupt government.
Good luck to you all
Long Live The Republic
The vibe in America is most certainly changing.
[A direct mechanism-design response to the “The AI Layoff Trap”. Endogenous self-terminating Pigouvian tax; deployable under existing federal authority. Seems like a good day to drop this. This is the kind of AI slop you might want to pass through an LLM]
https://t.co/PuJVGekrpU
Two economists just published a mathematical proof that AI will destroy the economy.
Not might. Not could. Will — if nothing changes.
The paper is called "The AI Layoff Trap." Published March 2, 2026. Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. Boston University. Peer reviewed. Mathematically modeled.
The conclusion is one sentence.
"At the limit, firms automate their way to boundless productivity and zero demand."
An economy that produces everything. And sells it to nobody.
Here is how you get there.
A company fires 500 workers and replaces them with AI. A competitor fires 700 to keep up. Another fires 1,000. Every company is behaving rationally. Every company is following the incentives correctly. And every company is building a trap for itself.
Because the workers who were fired were also customers.
When they lose their jobs faster than the economy can absorb them, they stop spending. Consumer demand falls. Companies respond by cutting costs — which means automating more workers — which means less spending — which means more falling demand — which means more automation.
The loop has no natural exit.
The researchers tested every proposed solution. Universal basic income. Capital income taxes. Worker equity participation. Upskilling programs. Corporate coordination agreements.
Every single one failed in the model.
The only intervention that worked: a Pigouvian automation tax — a per-task levy charged every time a company replaces a human with AI, forcing them to price in the demand they are destroying before they pull the trigger.
No government has implemented this. No major economy is seriously discussing it.
Meanwhile the numbers are already tracking the curve. 100,000 tech workers laid off in 2025. 92,000 more in the first months of 2026. Jack Dorsey fired half of Block's workforce and said publicly: "Within the next year, the majority of companies will reach the same conclusion."
Nobody is doing anything wrong. Companies are following their incentives perfectly. That is exactly the problem.
Rational behavior. At scale. Simultaneously. With no mechanism to stop it.
Two economists built the math. The math leads to one place.
Source: Falk & Tsoukalas · Wharton School + Boston University ·
https://t.co/4m8E9jQNYm
22 yrs ago today, after a long zoning dispute with local officials that ruined his business, welder Marvin Heemeyer had enough & created the Killdozer.
He destroyed the mayor’s house, the judge’s house, town hall, the police station, & the bank - while avoiding hurting civilians or their property.
Happy Killdozer Day to those who celebrate 🎊
@christopherrufo [youre here? Why aren’t I seeing you at the local meetups ]
@OrevaZSN @LeftVLockdown [youre not wrong but crony oligarchs devaluing the currency make it a lot rougher than it needs to be. ]
@HealthRanger [everyone should watch battlestar galactica 2000s version and read anything related to the butlerian crusade(jihad)]
[reads like an ai started listening to @mysteriousuniv and is RPing as a “contractor” . Don’t get me wrong; this is solid content; wish more people had the IQ to consider such possibilities. ]
be me
former contractor attached to a compartment that technically doesn’t exist
spend first 6 months thinking it’s another drone retrieval program
not a drone retrieval program
first briefing starts with Roswell
everyone laughs
nobody in the room is joking
shown archival footage from 1947
object isn’t a saucer
object isn’t even stable
shape changes slightly every few frames
analysts call it “topological drift”
ask if it’s some optical effect
told no
that’s the problem
learn there have been recoveries
plural
materials don’t behave like materials
isotopic ratios impossible
internal spaces larger than external dimensions
engineer has nervous breakdown trying to model one
physics team calls it “non-local architecture”
hear rumors of occupants
think it’s alien bodies
not exactly
biological component present
but classification says “operator interface”
ask what that means
nobody answers
get moved onto sensor analysis
discover radar tracks aren’t the weird part
witness effects are
same object appears differently to different observers
fighter pilot sees metallic craft
civilian sees glowing orb
child sees angel
all standing in same place
all describing same event
data confirms it
start reading historical archives
medieval fairy encounters
religious visions
airship waves
modern abductions
same behavioral pattern for centuries
same symbols updated for cultural expectations
management starts calling it the “control system”
nobody says extraterrestrial anymore
that’s considered an outdated hypothesis
learn intelligence agencies have known for decades
biggest secret isn’t aliens
biggest secret is reality appears responsive
phenomenon reacts to observation
reacts to belief
reacts to attention
like it’s studying us back
internal report asks if humanity is being conditioned
asks by whom
nobody knows
retrieval program becomes disclosure task force
public pressure increasing
too many sensors now
satellites
phones
AI pattern recognition
phenomenon impossible to fully suppress
briefing from senior official
says public can handle non-human intelligence
public cannot handle uncertainty
that’s the real containment problem
final week before retirement
read assessment marked EYES ONLY
“The phenomenon may not originate elsewhere.”
“The phenomenon may be co-resident.”
“Humanity may have mistaken proximity for visitation.”
stare at page for twenty minutes
suddenly understand why nobody sleeps in this program
log out
pension secured
still check the sky every night
not looking for spacecraft
looking for whatever has been looking back
Why you should help your neighbors: When we moved to my farm 5 years ago, we were outsiders. We intentionally have gone out of our way to become part of the community. It’s not entirely benevolent, you’ll understand at the end.
I deliver garden vegetables to neighbors when I have excess. I occasionally cut trees when there’s a storm. We invite kids up to see our mini-horses. We occasionally host neighborhood trap shooting or horseshoes. One year I gave out 500 cherry tomato seedlings because we had too many (heirloom) come up on their own. It cost me nothing as my tomato bed was full of them & I’d have put them on the compost pile. I’ve mowed a couple of peoples lawns when their mower was down. We’ve caught lost horses, helped build fences, & I’ve tracked down lost family dogs in the woods. I’m the guy people call before the Sheriffs Dept, because I’m right there. We do a lot of other stuff too.
What’s the result? People give us free eggs. 2 neighbors allow me to forage & hunt on their 200 acres. I’ve been shown secret Morel spots. A guy brought over his mini-tractor when I had a septic tank issue. When I needed to replace a fuel pump on a vehicle, I was loaned a trailer & minivan. That neighbors cousin fixed my truck under my carport for minimal cost. When my refrigerator died, out of the blue, a neighbor called & indefinitely loaned me one. It saved a refrigerator full of food. We are plugged into the network of people who have lived here their whole lives.
We intentionally made friends. Friends are nice to talk to, but in the end, they are people you can lean on when things go poorly. You just need to be ready to reciprocate. There are a hundred other examples of helping others or them helping us that I won’t bore you with.
Go out of your way to help others. If it’s not in your nature to do so, do it selfishly. You won’t regret it.
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