Menelik III

Senior ልማት correspondent @diredig. Junior ፖሊሲ analyst @yemedrek. Writer @Shemsu_Bireda. Follow @ your own risk. I don't even know where I'm going.

[Menelik III @GurageFirst]

A Strategic Pact: Egypt Cedes 25% of Suez Canal Revenue for Ethiopia’s Blue Nile Water Assurance

The Nile River, a lifeline threading through East Africa, has long been a source of sustenance and friction. Egypt depends on it for nearly 90% of its freshwater, fueling its economy and survival, while Ethiopia, origin of the Blue Nile, harnesses it for progress through the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). As of March 15, 2025, GERD’s operations have deepened a standoff: Egypt fears water shortages, and Ethiopia defends its sovereign right to development. Negotiations have stalled, leaving the region teetering between cooperation and conflict.

What if Egypt could secure its water future by sharing a slice of its economic crown jewel? We propose that Egypt relinquish 25% of its annual Suez Canal revenue to Ethiopia in exchange for a legally binding guarantee of Blue Nile water flow. This bold concession could transform a decades-long dispute into a partnership, trading revenue for resource security.

The Strategic Context

The Suez Canal, fully controlled by Egypt’s Suez Canal Authority, is a global trade artery, channeling about 12% of the world’s shipping traffic. In 2024, it generated over $9 billion in revenue, a critical lifeline for Egypt’s strained economy. Meanwhile, Ethiopia’s GERD, now operational, produces over 6,400 megawatts of electricity, doubling its power capacity and fueling ambitions as an energy exporter. The Blue Nile, supplying 85% of the Nile’s flow, is Ethiopia’s leverage—and Egypt’s vulnerability—tied to outdated treaties (1929 and 1959) that Ethiopia rejects.

Egypt faces an existential risk if Nile waters dwindle, while Ethiopia risks regional backlash if it ignores downstream needs. Sudan, a mutual neighbor, seeks balance for its own dams. A breakthrough is overdue—one that secures Egypt’s lifeline while rewarding Ethiopia’s contribution.

The Proposal: Revenue-for-Flow Agreement

Here’s the deal: Egypt agrees to transfer 25% of its annual Suez Canal revenue—approximately $2.25 billion based on 2024 figures—to Ethiopia each year. In return, Ethiopia commits to a legally binding minimum flow of Blue Nile water to Egypt, pegged to meet Egypt’s core needs (historically 55.5 billion cubic meters annually) while operating GERD for power generation.

The framework could look like this:

Revenue Transfer: Egypt cedes 25% of the Suez Canal’s annual revenue yearly to Ethiopia, drawn directly from canal tolls, without relinquishing ownership or control. This could be structured as a water-security payment, renewable based on compliance.

Water Guarantees: Ethiopia ensures a baseline water release, adjustable during droughts, overseen by a trilateral body with Sudan. This balances Egypt’s survival with Ethiopia’s energy goals.

Mutual Benefits: Egypt locks in water security, averting economic collapse, while Ethiopia gains a substantial revenue stream without upfront investment, enhancing its regional clout.

Why It Could Work

For Egypt, the logic is clear: 25% is a steep but calculable price for water security, far less than the cost of prolonged drought or conflict. The Suez Canal’s $9 billion haul leaves Egypt with $6.75 billion annually—still a robust sum—while neutralizing the GERD threat. For Ethiopia, 25% yearly is a windfall, dwarfing GERD’s construction cost

[Senator Ted Cruz @SenTedCruz]

President Trump has rightly said that Somaliland is "a totally different country" than Somalia. That is exactly the correct policy. It is long past time for the U.S. to recognize Somaliland.

Today I questioned the nominee to be Ambassador to Somalia to confirm that he agrees President Trump's position. He declined to do so.

I told him that whether he is confirmed or not will depend on whether the State Department follows the President's guidance.

[الحدث @AlHadath]

وزير إثيوبي يطالب بمساهمة مصرية في بناء السدود الجديدة ومساعدة أديس أبابا في الحصول على منفذ بحري

وزير المياه والطاقة الإثيوبي:

⭕ على مصر المساهمة في بناء السدود الجديدة التي نبنيها

⭕ نطالب مصر بمساعدتنا على الحصول على منفذ بحري

[العربية عاجل @AlArabiya_Brk]

وزير المياه والطاقة الإثيوبي: نطالب مصر بمساعدتنا على الحصول على منفذ بحري #العربية_عاجل

[العربية عاجل @AlArabiya_Brk]

وزير المياه والطاقة الإثيوبي: على مصر المساهمة في بناء السدود الجديدة التي نبنيها #العربية_عاجل

[Sputnik Ethiopia @sputnik_ethio]

🇪🇹 ኢትዮጵያ ከ10 በላይ በሚሆኑ ድንበር ተሻጋሪ ወንዞች ላይ አዳዲስ ግድቦችን ለመገንባት ማቀዷ ተጠቆመ

ዋና ዋና ድንበር ተሻጋሪ ወንዞች ላይ ወደፊት ሰፊ ሥራዎች እንደሚጠበቁ የታላቁ ህዳሴ ግድብ የማስተባበሪያ ፕሮጀክት ጽሕፈት ቤት ገልጿል።

[Ethiopian News Agency @EthiopianNewsA]

Being an important country which plays a key role in the peace of the region, Ethiopia deserves a presence in the Red Sea, Paul-Simon Handy, Institute for Security Studies Regional Director for East Africa and Representative to the African Union said.
https://t.co/2BCsxM3OZv

[FRANCE 24 English @France24_en]

🇪🇹 #Ethiopia is looking to position itself as an African leader in clean energy, as it prepares to host next year’s COP32 climate summit.

Alongside the #GERD, the country is building another massive hydropower project on the Omo River in the southwest, as it expands electricity production and exports power to neighbouring countries.

This report from our correspondent Tom Canetti ⤵️

[Barack Obama @BarackObama]

Tonight, the American people sent a clear message — they want a politics that brings people together rather than divides them, and leaders who offer concrete solutions to the challenges they face.

These results were only possible because outstanding candidates stepped forward in every region of the country — including in areas once considered long shots. They came from different backgrounds and represented a range of political perspectives, but were united by shared values, a belief in public service, and a commitment to putting the people of their districts and states first.

We also owe a debt of gratitude to the thousands of election officials and volunteers from both parties who helped ensure a smooth election and carried out one of the most essential functions of our democracy.

While this administration has another two years in office, our job now is to roll up our sleeves, make changes wherever we have the power to do so, prevent further damage, and lay the groundwork for the future.

[Menelik III @GurageFirst]

Obama won

[Menelik III @GurageFirst]

The undeclared race war in America.

[Menelik III @GurageFirst]

Congratulations to the American people for participating in the 2026 midterm elections peacefully. 🇺🇸

Regardless of which side wins, we urge both parties and their supporters to respect the results, reject inflammatory rhetoric, and refrain from inciting post-election violence.

[The Sudan Times @thesudantimes]

Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki backs Russian invasion of Ukraine, saying the country itself is an "invention" of the West to hold Moscow back and contain its influence.

[Menelik III @GurageFirst]

By the same logic Eritrea was an "invention" of the West to hold Ethiopia back and contain its influence over the Red Sea and Nile.

[The Sudan Times @thesudantimes]

Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki backs Russian invasion of Ukraine, saying the country itself is an "invention" of the West to hold Moscow back and contain its influence.

[Visit Somaliland - Ministry of Trade and Tourism @visitsomalilan]

Done

[Blen Mamo Diriba @_PoliticsAddict]

As Eritrea Continues to Orchestrate Attacks from Its Territory, Ethiopia Retains Its Inherent Right to Self-Defence

Horn Review Editorial https://t.co/woHq9Gcv9s

[Gazette Plus @GazettePlusET]

Sovereign sea access via #Assab is essential for Ethiopia's survival & HoA stability, says ex-Pres Amb Mulatu Teshome (PhD).
He calls out historical external interference & urges strong int'l diplomacy to secure nat'l interests.
Watch the full interview⤵️
https://t.co/zgoR8k9xiz

[Menelik III @GurageFirst]

He, too, probably hates going back to Eritrea 😁

[Menelik III @GurageFirst]

Since 2018, Eritrea's Isaias Afwerki has made 33 documented trips abroad, mostly to Egypt, Saudi & Russia. Stays often outrun the announced length, with no explanation
🇮🇹 2024: 2 days, 12 days away
🇪🇬 Jun 2026: 3 days, 5 days awayy
🇷🇺 Oct 2026: 2 days, 6 days away
Wondering why🤔

[Menelik III @GurageFirst]

Since 2018, Eritrea's Isaias Afwerki has made 33 documented trips abroad, mostly to Egypt, Saudi & Russia. Stays often outrun the announced length, with no explanation
🇮🇹 2024: 2 days, 12 days away
🇪🇬 Jun 2026: 3 days, 5 days awayy
🇷🇺 Oct 2026: 2 days, 6 days away
Wondering why🤔

[Presidency | Republic of Somaliland @Presidencysl_]

The President of the Republic of Somaliland, H.E. Abdirahman Mohamed Abdillahi (Irro), received the credentials of H.E. Michael Lotem, Ambassador of the State of Israel to the Republic of Somaliland, at the Presidential Palace.

This historic occasion marks a new chapter in Somaliland–Israel relations, translating diplomatic recognition into formal diplomatic representation.

It opens a new era of bilateral engagement, strategic partnership and cooperation, founded on mutual respect and shared interests, with a commitment to advancing peace, security and prosperity.

#Somaliland #Israel #DiplomaticRelations

[Israel Foreign Ministry @IsraelMFA]

Israel’s Ambassador to Somaliland, Michael Lotem, presented his credentials to President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi last week in a historic ceremony at the Presidential Palace in Hargeisa.

The ceremony marks another important step in strengthening relations between Israel and Somaliland, following their mutual recognition on December 26, 2025.

Since then, ties between the two countries have continued to develop. Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar made a historic visit to Somaliland in January 2026, while Somaliland opened its embassy in Jerusalem during President Abdullahi’s visit to Israel in June 2026.

Following the presentation of credentials, a cornerstone-laying ceremony was held for Israel’s new embassy in Hargeisa.

Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar said:

“Israel is determined to develop and strengthen its relations with Somaliland.

“The appointment of ambassadors, in accordance with the agreement reached when our countries established mutual recognition, is another important step in deepening the ties between us.”

[Gazette Plus @GazettePlusET]

The Stolen Port of Ethiopia
An exclusive interview with Amb Mulatu Teshome (PhD), Former President of FDRE, on the #geopolitical complexities, #Ethiopia’s historical access to #RedSea & the strategic tensions with Egypt.
Watch the video now!
https://t.co/ogv52cdXIv