Angus Martin

I aim to think creatively about international relations, IPE, defence, security & Australia’s place in the world. BBus (QUT), MAVA (GU), MIR (UQ), AIIA member.

[Angus Martin @GusMartin_World]

Very good write up now that it’s done. https://t.co/eehbFvzv7S

[Angus Martin @GusMartin_World]

https://t.co/FVdNBxGNTl

[Angus Martin @GusMartin_World]

Good macroeconomic / IPE discussion on where the US economy sits *in relation to* other developed economies, particularly that of 🇨🇳 and 🇪🇺. Some future predictions.

Actually, the American Economy Isn’t in Decline https://t.co/r5v6wIkQNa via @NYTOpinion

[Angus Martin @GusMartin_World]

This is a brilliant walk through of how AI has evolved, and what its security implications are today and into the future. https://t.co/FWwjNhS7S4

[Angus Martin @GusMartin_World]

https://t.co/SHjVZRhwS5

[Angus Martin @GusMartin_World]

“Without nuclear weapons, you are no longer part of the club that others fear attacking,” Zelenskyy said. “Instead, you become part of the club that can be attacked.”

🇺🇦 gave up 3rd largest nuclear arsenal in the 90s for 🇺🇸 and 🇷🇺 security guarantees.
https://t.co/HsjNbY3n14

[Angus Martin @GusMartin_World]

Hope, backlash and the battle for America (from @TheEconomist) https://t.co/g58zriiEyS

[Angus Martin @GusMartin_World]

“…will we even have enough Indonesian-speakers, or for that matter Mandarin speakers, or Japanese speakers to fill the ranks of our diplomatic corps in the future?” ⁦@latingle⁩ https://t.co/oD57RIlXmU

[Angus Martin @GusMartin_World]

Good update on the case for AUKUS which is nearing 5 years since being announced.

[ANU National Security College @NSC_ANU]

📢 How can #AUKUS help support peace in our region?

In this episode, Justin Burke speaks with Peter J. Dean and Jennifer Parker on public support for nuclear-powered submarines, our position in the region, and #Australia’s long-term maritime strategy.

Listen now ⤵️
https://t.co/6NWp43ufET

@DefenceProf @JAParker29 @justinburke

[Angus Martin @GusMartin_World]

“…so long as investors continue to see AI as the sole foundation of the next world order, they will keep ranking nations based on their tech prowess.”
https://t.co/2OshZJpHkz

[Angus Martin @GusMartin_World]

https://t.co/DQzTg4LgRx

[Angus Martin @GusMartin_World]

https://t.co/yRYo2ggvyp

[Angus Martin @GusMartin_World]

A Mayor Is Taking Maternity Leave in Japan. Some Men Are Furious. https://t.co/pRefkJXOWJ via @NYTimes

[Dr. Malcolm Davis 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 @Dr_M_Davis]

Good analysis - and one that I think is correct. #Putin is staring defeat in #Ukraine in the face, and he must know that if #Russia is defeated, he falls from power. That has all sorts of implications for what happens then - to him and to Russia.

As the post below makes clear, he's backed into a 'seriously dark corner'. He's dangerous, and unpredictable. He could lash out as he goes down.

Does he seek to escalate the war? The spectre of #nuclear use is always there, and in my opinion, shouldn't be dismissed lightly. But he also has other options to escalate besides resorting to tactical nuclear weapons, which may not achieve much in a purely military sense anyhow. And nuclear use will certainly see Russia completely isolated - likely even from China.

So what are the other options?

1) Create a crisis along NATO's eastern frontier, in the Baltics to distract attention, and back up any move against the Baltic states with nuclear sabre rattling in the hope that NATO will back down both in the Baltics and cease supporting Ukraine. Putin seeks to dictate the terms of NATO's capitulation in eastern and central Europe as well as overrun Ukraine. He may gamble that NATO isn't prepared to risk nuclear war over Vilnius, and a NATO collapse gives him Ukraine in the end.

2) An option more focused on Ukraine itself - Do mass mobilisation and throw more men and firepower into the war against Ukraine. That's politically risky if the Russian people refuse to back such a step? And it may not work militarily, and just lead to more destruction of Russian military capacity and ruination of Russia's economy as Ukrainian drone strikes are so effectively creating right now.

3) Might he call on #China for more direct support, at least in terms of arms shipments and intelligence sharing.. but will Beijing answer the phone? Especially if they are anticipating their own moves against #Taiwan? If China says 'no' to any Russian request, Putin's credibility in the eyes of the Oligarchs and Siloviki is finished - he's done.

If he doesn't escalate, and the war's current trajectory continues, Russia loses. Putin is finished anyway, and the question in my mind then is whether any post-Putin transition is smooth, or whether it leads to internal unrest or potentially something even worse? Civil War? Fragmentation? Russia's breakup?

Does Russia then survive as a unitary state? If it doesn't, how do western democracies - and China - assure positive control of Russia's nuclear forces, including its tactical nuclear weapons? Does that requirement demand some sort of operation inside Russia to prevent 'loose nukes'? They can't sit back, do nothing and hope for the best. There are thousands of nuclear warheads strewn across the country. Assuring positive control would demand some sort of 'boots on the ground' operation, if there is no longer a Russian Federation.

And, by the way, if the post-Putin transition is smooth, there is no guarantee that what follows Putin will be a 21st Century Gorbachev, seeking rapprochement with the west, and turning away from China. A coup against Putin could lead to something far worse - an extreme right wing ultranationalist, 'eager' to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine and against the West.

Buckle up... its going to be a bumpy ride ahead.

[Angus Martin @GusMartin_World]

https://t.co/vGsFIaHgzO

[Angus Martin @GusMartin_World]

This is great/interesting/insightful/compact yet detailed (somehow) discussion - @gideonrachman with 3x first-rate guests. For 🇦🇺, @MrKRudd sets out the fundamentals clearly for Asia Pacific middle power democracies.

[Gideon Rachman @gideonrachman]

Great discussion and will be next weeks Rachman Review podcast

[Angus Martin @GusMartin_World]

@latikambourke Yep.

[Angus Martin @GusMartin_World]

In Uncertain Times, Is the Australian Leader’s Quiet Pragmatism Enough? https://t.co/bfpXg0YMgt via @NYTimes

[Angus Martin @GusMartin_World]

@stephendziedzic Smoke AND lasers AND tricky doors to open: 🫡 Stephen.

[Andrew Greene @AndrewBGreene]

Exclusive: Secret ASIO report warns of journalist spies operating in Australia, infiltrating media | The Nightly https://t.co/WXlFPfbZGb