Guy Alpay • גיא אלפאי

Commodity analyst at Commodex
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fmr Israeli Navy LCDR
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Tweets represent my own views, are NOT investment advice.

[Guy Alpay • גיא אלפאי @Guy_Commodex]

אני זוכר הסברים ארוכים ומנומקים למה זו בעצם רק ההתחלה ואין עוד כסף בעולם כשהיינו באיזור ה-120$.

[Barchart @Barchart]

JUST IN 🚨: Silver falls below its 200-day moving average for the first time since April 2025 📉📉

[Richard Goldberg @rich_goldberg]

The U.S. military has retaliated when fired upon during the ceasefire. Think of these as Israeli love taps.

[Guy Alpay • גיא אלפאי @Guy_Commodex]

@rickjeff78 Really depends on how urgently state buyers feel they need to refill *when and if* things normalize

[Guy Alpay • גיא אלפאי @Guy_Commodex]

@CRUDEOIL231 @staunovo Big issue for phosphate fertilizers and related crops.

[Anas Alhajji @anasalhajji]

1- most of the decline was in SPR not commercial

2- many countries built inventories before the attack on Iran in February and some later in March. The decline in April and May in commercial inventories was from these additions

However, the decline in total inventories is heavily concentrated. It is not global.

On a different note: China alone reduced global oil demand by about 6 mb/d.

[Guy Alpay • גיא אלפאי @Guy_Commodex]

@JavierBlas was the hype irresponsible to begin with?
obviously there would not be an issue for crops already in the ground & farmers with adequate stocks of fertilizer.

the issue would be the next planting cycle.

https://t.co/YF3c2Ajw7c

[Ellen R. Wald Ph.D.🛢 @EnergzdEconomy]

There seem to be 2 completing views on oil market now:
1 - oil prices have been constrained given the 11-13mbpd off the market due to:
commercial inventory draws
SPR releases
China cut imports, used inventory, cut petchems
axios headlines + shorting
BUT when inventories are...

[laurence norman @laurnorman]

@fbermingham In other words:
Xi, who shall not be named.

[Guy Alpay • גיא אלפאי @Guy_Commodex]

@tylermacro10 @laurimyllyvirta People miss the fact that consumption ≠ demand

[Guy Alpay • גיא אלפאי @Guy_Commodex]

@Kacper_PK_CH hasn't there been a massive wave of swap dealer selling right when the conflict started?

[Guy Alpay • גיא אלפאי @Guy_Commodex]

@_jdill23 This is production vs *consumption*, though.

But the question is how much restocking demand are we going to see and how price sensitive will it be?

[Guy Alpay • גיא אלפאי @Guy_Commodex]

@FabianWierczoch Producers selling into a speculative acreage reduction narrative.

Can't say there weren't signs.

[Guy Alpay • גיא אלפאי @Guy_Commodex]

#corn
Somebody's not buying that Fert narrative...

[Yaakov Katz @yaakovkatz]

On April 6, @NickKristof posted a picture from the West Bank posing with Munther Amira, a Palestinian he described as having endured “brutal abuse in Israeli prisons.” I forwarded it to a few well-connected people with a simple question: “Does someone in the Israeli government know he is here? If so, they should be reaching out.”

The tweet, I figured, had definitely been seen by officials in Israel’s public diplomacy apparatus, and they should have reached the same obvious conclusion – whatever Kristof was doing here was not going to end well. Someone needed to try to get ahead of it.

Nobody did.

After Kristof’s rape column was published earlier this month, the answer was what I expected: no one from the @IDFSpokesperson’s Office had called the New York Times columnist. No one had sat across from him, heard his accusations, and tried to tell a different story. Not even an attempt.

Would it have made a difference? Maybe. Maybe not. 

Maybe the column would have been more balanced. Maybe it would have been worse. That is always the uncertainty with public diplomacy – you never know what might have been until you try. 

And that is the point. Israel didn’t try. It rarely does. And that, right now, is the story of Israeli public diplomacy in a single sentence: Israel is not even in the game.

The question is why. And to answer it, consider two things that happened recently that most people missed.

1/3

[Scott Irwin @ScottIrwinUI]

1. D4 RIN prices have been setting all-time highs on an almost daily basis recently. Yesterday (5/27/2026), 2026 vintage D4s hit a price of $2.26 per gallon. The main reason that D4 RIN prices are so high is the sheer magnitude of 2026 and 2027 biomass-based diesel RVOs finalized by the EPA at the end of March. What may be less well understood is that D4 prices would have been even higher if not for the Iran conflict.

[Francesco Sassi @Frank_Stones]

Storage Crisis: German Grid Operators Warn Current Rules Fail to Secure Winter Gas Supplies

Germany’s current gas storage system is insecure, according to German transmission system operators.
🧵

[Guy Alpay • גיא אלפאי @Guy_Commodex]

@CRUDEOIL231 Seems to be a massive copper deficit "just around the corner" for years now.

[Simon Ree @simon_ree]

“What’s the stupidest thing you’ve ever done in your investing career?”

“Oh, back in 2026 I got concerned about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the loss of 12mbbl/day of oil”

[Fabian Wierczoch @FabianWierczoch]

Talked to the CEO of a German grain originator.

• Fertilizer impact not seen yet. Because of CBAM (EU CO2 import tariff) farmers were stocking a lot of fertilizer in November/December. He sees impact only next year in 2027 when fertilizer prices don't come down until next spring.

• Farmer selling came in 4 waves: First in Feb, second wave in March when Iran war started, third wave in April and the fourth after the very bullish USDA report in May.

• How much is still left on farm? There is still a lot, but less than people think. Everyone always talks about farmers storing grain into the new crop season because of the steep carry (=insentive to store), but history shows that that never happens because to do so farmers need
1) storage space (farmers can only store 1 harvest, not multiple)
2) liquidity to finance operation (margins were low recently. Liquidity situation is not easy)
3) strict hygene to minimize quality loss

• Demand from feed producers and flour mills is very quiet. Mills are covered with enough high protein wheat, but low protein still needs some buying

• Flour milling went down -5% the last years. Due to high inflation food waste became less. Consolidation in the sector will continue. Just recently another medium sized mill announced to close.

• He sees the US dryness story more a sentiment thing and less an event that has profound impact on world wheat markets. "What drives the world market is Russia and Ukraine".

• USDA has EU too low in his view. Growing conditions in Germany and bordering regions in Poland, Czech Republic have been decent so far

• for the next months his view is that "bulls need to get fed". US dryness is priced in, trade deal with China as well, same as the biofuel story. At the same time growing conditions in Europe, Ukraine and Russia have been good.

What do you think about his view? ✍️👇

[June Goh @JuneGoh_Sparta]

Reinventorizing will be a key theme for months to come

1⃣After SPR and commercial stocks are drained, there will be a need to reinventorize the lost volume. 1 billion barrels of inventory loss has been the headline number so far

2⃣Additionally, countries that have been hard hit by the lack of fuel reserves have now come out to say they will review the need for additional reserves (Australia, New Zealand). The alternative to build new refineries will take too long, so increasing fuel reserves is more likely the first outcome post-crisis

3⃣ASEAN leaders are also pursuing a regional fuel stockpile but currently hindered by the mechanics of how this can be implemented

4⃣The backwardated structure will make it hard for industry players to contribute to this stockbuilding initiative

#oott