Gareth van Onselen

Liberal. Humanist. Author. Editor: @insidepols @quotesanc and @EFFRevolution

[Gareth van Onselen @GvanOnselen]

@uMarhobane One for the predictions archive. DA to get 17%. Have added, keep them coming.

[Inside Politics @insidepols]

Have updated the 2026 LGE surveys track, to include latest SRF findings. Need more metro data for a proper track of metros, so national will have to do for moment; less meaningful number than NPEs, but helpful for general trends.

[Gareth van Onselen @GvanOnselen]

@Jonathan_Witt Jesus, the desperation to manufacture some sort of existential disagreement here really is quite something. So much hate for that tweet. I just don't have the energy for that kind of hate for a comment about photos, don't now how you do it, but am impressed.

[Gareth van Onselen @GvanOnselen]

The thing I love most about defectors is how they can be 100% enthusiastic about party A, and then, the next day, 100% enthusiastic about party B. Zero period of quiet reflection before taking up the microphone.

[Ayanda Allie @AyandaAllie]

On a walkabout with @HermanMashaba & entrepreneurs from the Johannesburg Runners Association.

These youngsters earn a living by buying goods from wholesalers on behalf of customers via WhatsApp & other platforms.

They’ve asked for help in regulating their industry.

[Gareth van Onselen @GvanOnselen]

Market research when the result is good for your party: “This is amazing, look at this everyone!”
Market research when the result is bad for your party: “Don’t pay any attention to this crap.”
It was always thus.

[Gareth van Onselen @GvanOnselen]

The amount of pictures people taking of themselves outside this expropriation act court case, you’d think it was a movie premier. Makes you realise everyone is a politician really, even if they feign otherwise.

[Anne Applebaum @anneapplebaum]

What a transcript

[Inside Politics @insidepols]

Below are a series of statistics from Johannesburg LGE and NPE election results (2000-2024).

The table compares the average turnout in those Voting Districts (VDs) where the ANC won and the same turnout average in those VDs where the DA was the winner.

They are very instructive when it comes to understanding what a turnout differential is (and why turnout modelling is so important when it comes to political market research).

What does it show? Well, in the past, the ANC has won around 500+ VDs in JHB each election, the DA around 200+. But the turnout average in these two data sets is very different, particularly when it comes to LGEs.

DA voters, in DA strongholds (VDs it won), turn out at a rate of around 10pts more than ANC voters do, in ANC strongholds.

In 2000, average DA stronghold turnout was 10.1pts higher than that in ANC strongholds; in 2006, +7.2pts; in 2011 10.1pts; in 2016, a remarkable +15.2pts higher; and in 2021, +12.9pts.

This illustrates the DA’s great advantage in urban centres, in LGEs: its supporters vote in significantly greater numbers than ANC voters do.

The effect of this is profound. Imagine two VDs, in one the ANC has 150 voters, in the other the DA has 130 But, on election day, 60% of ANC voters turn out and 75% of DA voters do. When it comes to the actual votes cast. The ANC would get 90 votes and the DA 98 votes. So, despite have 20 less supporters, the DA wins.

This trend is what the DA tries to capitalise on. The more enthusiastic DA voters, and the more alienated and disillusioned ANC voters, the better the differential for the DA.

Historically, as we have seen, this differential is at its most powerful for the DA in urban centres (metros) in LGEs. In 2026, it will be hoping to replicate its best ever differential - the staggering - +15.2pts it got in 2016. In its favour is the ANC’s continued decline and how depressed its vote share is. It will also take some encouragement out of the fact that even on 2021, which was a dire election for turnout across the board, it still managed +12.9pts on the ANC, in JHB.

However, it is worth looking at what is happening in NPEs. ANC voters used to be much more enthusiastic about NPEs, and the DA’s differential tiny. It was just +1.8pts in 2004 and 2009. But with time, it has been systematically increasing: +5pts (2014), +6pts (2019) and +9.9pts (2024).

Slowly but steadily, as ANC voters opt out, the DA’s turnout differential in NPEs has risen to the extent, at least in urban centres, where it is starting to replicate its LGE advantage.

Turnout is going to be the critical factor in November in the metros, for both the DA and the ANC. The ANC simply must inject whatever small amount of enthusiasm it can into its voters. That seems an almost impossible ask given its state. But it is not that easy for the DA either. It is almost a given that its voters will be generally more enthusiastic, but they need to be hyper-enthusiastic for it to really triumph and in SA’s generally depressed environment, that is no less difficult a task.

The DA does have the possibility of winning on its side - the greatest political motivator. But it has to make that believable, and that is very hard to do. These small margins - even an extra +1pt on turnout differential - make a massive difference over a whole metro.

All of which goes to show how critical the formal campaigns (posters, radio and TV ads, and events) are going to be. A great campaign could make all the difference. Let’s see.

[Inside Politics @insidepols]

I think the Voters' Roll has been updated to include the second registration weekend stats (so much quicker, last weekend took like two weeks to update!). Perhaps more data to come, in which case I'll update this again. But if it is final, these are the top 50 municipalities, in terms of new registrations, by raw number increase, and percentage increase, for those interested.

[Gareth van Onselen @GvanOnselen]

Mate, you wouldn’t know what a fact looked like if it hit you over the head with a 10 pound hammer. You literally need a judge to tell you the difference between people being in a room, or not being in a room.

[Michael Beaumont @ME_Beaumont]

After days of deployed bots & sponsored cheerleaders, the below are the objective facts on the Mettler matter.

If these facts cause you to catch feelings, tough, because facts don't care about your feelings:

🎯 The complaints against Mettler arose from a complaint from the EFF with multiple claims of misconduct.

🎯 The Mayor tabled these reports in council. Regulation 5(1) governing the discipline of senior managers makes the tabling of such allegations mandatory without any discretion to withhold.

🎯 At the council meeting to deliberate on the suspension of Mettler ActionSA was present and voted against the suspension and tabled the proposal for no suspension to take place.

🎯 DA Councillors put in 13 Leaves of Absence (see image of record) citing "Party Responsibility" before 10am start of council. This is despite this meeting clearly being about the deliberations around suspending Mettler because, two weeks earlier, council met to initiate the process to consider a suspension.

🎯 The DA tried to reverse these Leaves of Absence in an email (see image of record) at 4:16pm (6 hours after start of council).

🎯 The Speaker ruled that these councillors could not vote and discounted their votes from the total votes.

🎯 The decision by the Speaker was clearly incorrect (as determined by the high court judgement).

🎯 While the DA tried to claim this as a chest-thumping moral victory, one fact remains undisputed: Had DA councillors gone to council as they are paid by the residents to do, and not put in leave for "Party Responsibilities", none of this would have happened.

🎯 The court found no fault with the Mayor's handling of the matter, focusing the decision-making of the Speaker as the impugned decision-making. If anything, Dr Moya just had to deal with the leading the turnaround of Tshwane with a municipal manager in limbo.

🎯 The tired response of bots when facts are presented is to resort to criticise our choice of coalition partners - forgetting that the DA and FF Plus are in coalition with the ANC in the GNU (where they follow a failing government and do not lead government an improving one). In the GNU the DA and FF Plus ask to be measured only on their performance and not that of their coalition partners.

🎯 Tshwane has, objectively, moved forward under Dr Nasiphi Moya and the multi-party coalition she leads. Finances have improved, debt has come down, service delivery budgets are increasing, audit outcomes are improving and service delivery is recovering from years of failures.

If any of these verifiable facts (including evidence below) hurt your feelings, please seek counselling because there is nothing I can do for you.

Political parties must be measured on their actions and inactions and I stand behind ActionSA and Dr Nasiphi Moya in Tshwane proudly.

If you take issue with any of this, I challenge you to identify a fact and dispute it.

[Gareth van Onselen @GvanOnselen]

This is quite something.

[Gareth van Onselen @GvanOnselen]

Trouble in paradise.

[Tlangi Mogale: CoT MMC Roads&Transport🖤💚💛 🇿🇦 @tlangimich]

Kgotsong Ntate Mashaba. I hope you are well. The ANC has been the most consistent and reliable coalition partner to your party and our other coalition partners. When we came in 19months ago we inherited a broken city which your political party was a party to and held several MMCs positions and had Doctor Moya as a Deputy Mayor. The city had incurred recurring qualified audits, and went on to receive an adverse Opinion from the AG. Your coalition was running on an unfunded budget, workers were fired from their jobs and just before we came in, the city’s strategic assets were almost disposed off and handed over to private capitalist hyenas who had lined up themselves to privatise assets belonging to the residents of Tshwane! We came in and we changed all of that, to which President of ActionSA, you gladly took credit for and we allowed you.

When we took over 19months ago, we found that about 21 capex infrastructure projects within black townships had been cancelled and our people left to fend for themselves in very undignified state of infrastructure. We came in and fought to have those projects reinstated and you went on a full blown media buying campaign and again, claimed credit for that and we never protested because we are consistent and believed that we are a collective. Even when Dr Nasiphi Moya was the Chair of the capital Infrastructure committee as a Deputy Mayor under the DA Mayor, she silently moved on with life when projects in townships were stopped. We have never made noise or went on twitter to lament about the hypocrisy we were faced with because we believed in the spirit of unity of this coalition in the interest of residents and our municipality. Department of community safety, which ActionSA is given the responsibility to preview over has had numerous disturbing public expose drawing negative sentiments around a security tender meered by irregularities and a Mettler who bluntly disrespected Nasiphi when she advised him to cancel it as we could already detect malfeasances, the same security tender was headlining Madlanga agenda items, we have never gone out to make noise on twitter projecting ourselves to be saints above our coalition partner, ActionSA. Your own ActionSA MMC of Corporate Shared headlined Madlanga and faced shocking allegations and not once have we ever come up here on populist excursions to admonish our coalition partners. We sat in our PMC meetings and issues were discussed and we moved. We want votes, but we are principled and we are respectful to those we work with!

You currently occupy two Mayoral positions which have been meered with scandals and we don’t go around saying ActionSA are performance delinquents, yet your national chair who has never been democratically elected is here everyday insulting us for reasons unbeknown to us!

Even the depths to which this Mettler matter is being handled and he is being defended is just too shocking leaves a lot to be desired.even after having shown you the middle finger, sabotaging our investment summit objectives till today and clearly being a gatekeeper for the DA, you guys are up in arms defending him. one day we will know the truth Ntate Mashaba.

You deliberately ignore the gist of my comment attributed to Beumont and run to admonish the brand ANC. Because insulting ANC gives people relevancy, without even debating facts.

We re proud that we were the most consistent and reliable coalition partners. The rest. it shall sort itself out

Ae be boroko🙏🏾

[Gareth van Onselen @GvanOnselen]

@stefanjacobs @RyanCoetzee @TopsideMartin Ahahahaha this guy is hilarious, psychological political profiling people you don’t know via wine tweets. I love this kind of thing. It’s what people do when they literally have no life. Sad I suppose. But funny. He basically needs a drink. Oh, wait…

[Gareth van Onselen @GvanOnselen]

Still one of my favourite ANC LGE quotes. Reflecting on it, 26 later, turns out everyone was last.

[Inside Politics @insidepols]

Documenting ASA and Michael Beaumont’s lies for the record.

It is unusual in politics to get a cut and dry lie. Typically, those politicians invested in dishonesty can play with language and meaning retroactively and wriggle out of responsibility for deceit. On the issue of the Tshwane Council meeting, and the suspension of the City Manager, Action South Africa, ASA's interim national chairman, Michael Beaumont, cannot. He lied, repeatedly and blatantly, and the judgement issued by the High Court yesterday makes his lie crystal clear and inescapable.

His lie, repeated many times on Twitter, and multiple times on other news platforms, including national television, was that DA councillors were "absent" from the relevant meeting; thus the vote against the suspension of the City Manager was lost. They were, however, not absent, but present and voted.

It was a remarkable claim. He literally said those councillors were “absent”. No sophisticated sophistry or implication, he literally tried to say people in a room, were not in a room. Again and again, he restated this lie. But the judgement, right up front, makes it clear this was not true. Here is the relevant paragraph:

“[10] Thirteen of the applicant’s councilors had sought leave of absence in respect of this meeting. However, when the purpose of the meeting became known, nine of these councillors withdrew their requests for leave, and attended the Council meeting. Another councillor from a different political party also withdrew her leave and attended the Council meeting. All ten of these councillors voted at the meeting…”

ASA’s record, when it comes to crises in which it bears some responsibility is dire. All through the VAT crisis, it lied. Repeatedly and consistently. That was a highly complex issue, so more difficult to pin down the party’s dishonesty. This is not. Beaumont said those councillors were “absent”. They were not. Black and white.

It is disturbing, the degree to which Beaumont, essentially the face of ASA, is prepared to lie like this, to the public, to ASA members and, on multiple occasions directly to members of the media who inquired. He would literally tell them the DA was absent.

One of the reasons ASA can often get away with this is because, like Trump, its members lie so much, about so many things, it becomes almost impossible to keep up, and distinguish fact from fiction. So, when you get an absolute, unequivocal, and repeated lie like this, it is worth documenting properly, as a reference point for the future.

In turn, hopefully, people – particularly in the media – will now understand that, much of what ASA says, especially when it is defending its own actions under pressure (or talking about its opposition), cannot be taken on face value.

Here then is a short list (there are many more examples), of Beaumont’s categorical lie.

“Imagine if they had just gone to council in the first place?” 14 July 2026
“Just the DA sensationalising the implementation of the decision that was taken entirely BECAUSE they were absent from Council with apologies citing "party responsibilities". 11 July 2026
“[The DA] did not arrive in council and then vote…” 11 July 2026
“Don't waste your vote on a party that campaigns on issues but then goes on holiday during the council meeting where the decisions on these issues are made.” 10 July 2026
“The reason why the Tshwane City Manager Johann Mettler is suspended and the CFO Gareth Mnisi is returning to work, is because some parties campaign on issues and are then absent when those issues are voted upon in council.” 10 July 2026
“Cilliers Brink's considerable failures led to that necessity and that still has nothing to do with the fact that DA councillors elected to not attend.” 10 July 2026
“…the entire reason these outcomes arose is because 15 DA Councillors did not attend council choosing to submit leaves of absence.” 9 July 2026
“Councillors from the Democratic Alliance didn’t attend this meeting... they didn’t bother to attend the council meeting.” 9 July 2026
“ActionSA stands by its principled vote on the merits of the cases while absent DA councillors sealed the outcome by not attending after campaigning on these issues for 2 weeks”. 9 July 2026

[Gareth van Onselen @GvanOnselen]

Tough day for the Tshwane tender coalition.

[Gareth van Onselen @GvanOnselen]

Translation: This year we are going to be campaigning on a new national crisis we have created: water. We had a good run on electricity, but that is boring now. We are hoping, by the time we have patched water, electricity will be broken again.

[Times LIVE @TimesLIVE]

WATCH | Fikile Mbalula says South Africa's biggest infrastructure challenge is now water—not electricity.

[Gareth van Onselen @GvanOnselen]

I can’t tell you how funny I find this, and the comments. The calm but total panic at the monster she created all coupled with a sweet, earnest but total dismay. Delightful. https://t.co/ylIKL4xDuF

[Gareth van Onselen @GvanOnselen]

God I love watching this stuff. Here he says unfortunately councillors “were absent”, then he says the speaker “removed their votes”. Small question: how do you remove votes from absent councillors? Like watching a washing machine full of compost with the door open.

[Michael Beaumont @ME_Beaumont]

Clarifying ActionSA’s position in the matter of the Tshwane City Manager, given that the opposition has gone to great lengths to smear Mayor Moya as a result of their failure to do their jobs.

[Gareth van Onselen @GvanOnselen]

@danroodt Fascinatingly stupid reply. The assumption being there are only 267k “true Afrikaners” in SA. I wonder if Dan Roodt wins arguments in his circle with crap like this. Another part of me wonders if he has a circle at all.

[Gareth van Onselen @GvanOnselen]

If Afriforum has 267k members, and the percentage of the Voting Age Population that is registered is 65%, that's around 173k voters. Translates to around 1.08% in 2024 NPE. If you compensate for FF+, properly far less than 1%. Probably why it will never transform into a party.