H9 Defense

Defense & foreign policy consultancy. Research-driven insights guiding strategies and influencing national security policies. Your defense roadmap, reimagined.

[SilentSoldier @SilentSoldierO5]

@WalidPhares 100%. @Dr_SaraHarmouch just published some excellent insights on this as well. Based on her findings, it seems more likely that the Syrian government isn’t “struggling” to protect minorities…https://t.co/nQdlGnf4gX

https://t.co/nQdlGnf4gX

[Dr. Sara Harmouch سارة هرموش @Dr_SaraHarmouch]

Ahmad Al-Sharaa may have traded the battlefield for the presidential palace. But the governing system emerging in #Syria looks less like a break from Abu Mohammed al-Jolani’s vision & more like its realization. My latest with @lawfare https://t.co/yQrTSzN00h

[AQ3.0 @TrackingAQ]

Great professional articles from @Dr_SaraHarmouch who hasn't stopped working on al-Qaeda even if there was "no appetite" for it. She sees al-Qaeda as it is. Through a lens of a Sunni Muslim and who experienced the effect of terrorist groups personally
Please share!!

[Tamim Asey @tamimasey]

While- many of us and the world chases every new geopolitical crisis one after the other but Dr. Harmouch has stayed laser focused on Al Qaeda and its global offshoots producing excellent research.

Serious, disciplined and highly important scholarship by a first-rate expert. MUST READ. 👇

[Dr. Sara Harmouch سارة هرموش @Dr_SaraHarmouch]

While much of the policy conversation moved to the flavor du jour crises, I’ve been writing & warning about al-Qaeda for years. As it returns to the headlines, here are some of my pieces & engagements:
- Al-Qaeda’s Third Phase https://t.co/B9otmMJbuq
- Al-Qaeda and WMD https://t.co/wdEgknCo4P
- The Unbroken Bond: Al-Qaeda and Taliban https://t.co/mnpJJGHxay
- Sudan’s descent into chaos sets stage for al-Qaeda to return to a stronghold https://t.co/z1A0qXTgCt
- Inside a Dangerous Alliance: Al-Qaeda & Iran https://t.co/i4CVNEzL08
- Al-Qaeda: A Threat Evolved https://t.co/g80uE0MA67
- Al-Qaeda’s Enduring Challenge https://t.co/qfNb9w5EnC
- Al-Qaeda: A defeated Threat? https://t.co/Rvd88lKTMS
- Al-Qaeda's Looming Threat https://t.co/9VpBS8pOpO
- Yes, al-Qaeda is Still a Threat https://t.co/nyZF7aHxd4

[Modern War Institute @WarInstitute]

"Al-Adel identifies five prerequisites for success—'leadership, economy, organization, strategy, and control'—that together form a managerial architecture designed to institutionalize command rather than personalize it." https://t.co/uQFlhEYOax

[Modern War Institute @WarInstitute]

"Al-Adel identifies five prerequisites for success—'leadership, economy, organization, strategy, and control'—that together form a managerial architecture designed to institutionalize command rather than personalize it." https://t.co/uQFlhEYgkZ

[Majid Nizami @majidsnizami]

Under the leadership of Saif al-Adel, al-Qaeda is not louder than before. It is more durable—and therefore more dangerous. Its current silence is not decline but design... Al-Qaeda 3.0 is not gone; it is rebuilding and waiting. By @Dr_SaraHarmouch
https://t.co/kHRVbV986b

[Douglas London @douglaslondon5]

Excellent and well-supported look at what Saif Al-Adel’s leadership means for al-Qaeda’s plans and intentions. A reminder of his military approach to organization/strategy, attention to deception and timing and interest in WMD.

[Dr. Sara Harmouch سارة هرموش @Dr_SaraHarmouch]

Arab Spring dynamics & ISIS shaped the environment, but they do not explain al-Qaeda’s current strategic direction. My analysis focuses on al-Adel’s thinking, which he outlines in his book, in the post-2021 context: the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, declining intelligence visibility, emerging safe havens, & tech change. I examine these changes in this piece here: https://t.co/78lkA712HV. The current article examines what al-Qaeda’s structure and operational posture are likely to look like under Al-Adel’s approach.

Regarding leadership, the analysis does not depend on a formally declared emir. Multiple UN monitoring reports & intel assessments have treated al-Adel as al-Qaeda’s de facto leader following Zawahiri’s death, even though the org has avoided a public announcement. That ambiguity is itself part of the strategy. The absence of formal confirmation does not negate the observable patterns of influence shaping the network’s trajectory.

[Dr. Sara Harmouch سارة هرموش @Dr_SaraHarmouch]

Interested in knowing what #alQaeda looks like under Saif al-Adel? My latest with @WarInstitute examines the group’s third phase. AQ 3.0 is not gone; it’s rebuilding and waiting. https://t.co/rQErFu6FMg

[Modern War Institute @WarInstitute]

After Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri, al-Qaeda is evolving into something markedly different under Said al-Adel. https://t.co/uQFlhEYOax

[AQ3.0 @TrackingAQ]

After 9/11 and the invasion of Afghanistan al-Qaeda was weakened and was forced to dispersion to Pakistan and Iran. But after a short period of time, they turned these relocations to their own benefits
"My enemy's enemy is my friend"
Great discussion with @Dr_SaraHarmouch

[Dr. Sara Harmouch سارة هرموش @Dr_SaraHarmouch]

In the article, I examine:
- #alQaeda’s CBRN history
- New signals from senior leadership
- Why today’s environment is more permissive (emerging tech, safe havens, & declining visibility)
- Where US & partner vigilance is eroding
- Steps needed to prevent strategic surprise

[Dr. Sara Harmouch سارة هرموش @Dr_SaraHarmouch]

While eyes are on #Venezuela & #Iran, #AlQaeda’s #WMD ambitions never disappeared. In my latest @TWQgw article, I examine why these #CBRN ambitions matter more now than many assume. Ignoring this risk would be a mistake. Access: https://t.co/SsaM6bG3QB

[Tamim Asey @tamimasey]

This is a must-read paper. Dr. Sara Harmouch delivers a meticulously researched and deeply unsettling analysis of Al-Qaeda’s long-standing ambitions around weapons of mass destruction.

While much of the policy world is absorbed by great-power politics this research is a timely reminder that AQ has not abandoned its most dangerous objective i.e. they have simply operated under the radar.

It is a call for urgent policy attention and sustained research. Congratulations on a powerful, rigorous and compelling contribution. Highly recommended. 👇

[AQ3.0 @TrackingAQ]

Al-Qaeda has had the will and effort to develop WMD capability and the IC badly underestimated its stage before 9/11. Again al-Qaeda has a safe haven where it operates without interference. Saif al-Adel openly claimed that having WMD and using it against the infidels is justified

[AQ3.0 @TrackingAQ]

"Al-Qaeda is gone!" Seriously?

[Dr. Sara Harmouch سارة هرموش @Dr_SaraHarmouch]

#AQAP's article celebrating the #bondiattack in #Sydney praises perpetrators “regardless of affiliation, whether they belonged to a #jihadist group or acted alone, they chose their target wisely & executed the attack effectively” adding “this is not the first & won’t be the last”

[Dr. Sara Harmouch سارة هرموش @Dr_SaraHarmouch]

#Alqaeda media is surging again at an unprecedented pace. Since 2023: renewed Inspire, Saif al-Adl’s quasi- military manual, & in 2025 a flood of Inspire, Open-Source Jihad, Sada al-Malahem & Sada al-Soughour, with #AQAP leaders reverting to explicit “far enemy” framing