⛓️HBEngine

⛓ not a paid caller, just a believer

[⛓️HBEngine @HBEngines]

#BTC #crypto

If liquidity increases, this is usually positive for crypto. If liquidity decreases, this usually puts pressure on Bitcoin and digital assets.

TGA is the U.S. Treasury’s account at the Federal Reserve. It is basically like the U.S. government’s bank account. When the TGA rises, it means the government is collecting money, for example through taxes or selling bonds. This pulls liquidity out of the market. That is why a rising TGA is usually negative for crypto. When the TGA falls, it means the government is spending money, and liquidity flows back into banks and markets. This is usually positive for crypto.

Bank Reserves are the reserves that banks hold at the Federal Reserve. When these reserves rise, it means the banking system has more liquidity. This is good for markets and is usually bullish for crypto. But if reserves start falling sharply, it means liquidity is decreasing, which can be negative for crypto.

Reverse Repo / ON RRP is a place where money market funds temporarily park cash at the Federal Reserve. When Reverse Repo was very high, a decline was positive because it released cash and brought liquidity back into the market. But if Reverse Repo becomes very low or almost empty, this means that this “liquidity buffer” can no longer help much. In that case, any large bond issuance can pull liquidity directly from banks and markets.

Treasury Net Issuance means the amount of new U.S. government bonds that the Treasury sells to the market, after subtracting old bonds that are being rolled over. If issuance is large, the market needs a lot of money to buy these bonds, which pulls liquidity away from stocks and crypto. That is why rising Treasury Net Issuance is usually negative for crypto. But if issuance is lower than expected, this is better for markets and can be bullish for crypto.

The best scenario for crypto is when the TGA falls, Bank Reserves rise or remain stable, Treasury Net Issuance is lower than expected, and the Federal Reserve is not draining liquidity from the market.

[⛓️HBEngine @HBEngines]

$BTC
The way Bitcoin dropped to the level of thr previous cycle top was very fast.
It was not because people were convinced, but because of fear.
We will come back to see new highs.
The market maker will not miss the chance to bring in liquidity.
The drop in the last cycle happened because interest rates were raised.
But now we have the opposite situation.
Bitcoin is not just another saas

[BÂLKÂN DWÂRF @kekeceth]

†HÊ SÂVÏÔR, †HÊ BÂLKÂN DWÂRF

[Murad 💹🧲 @MustStopMurad]

They want to shake you out before the Ultra Parabola.

[⛓️HBEngine @HBEngines]

$BTC $ETH $SOL $XRP
I think the crypto market won't be triggered by cycles anymore, but by liquidity instead. Crypto is diving more into Wall Street processes and could inherit the long cycles from stock markets.

[Altcoin Daily @AltcoinDaily]

BULLISH: Vanguard now lists $BTC $ETH $XRP $SOL ETFs

[Kalshi @Kalshi]

JUST IN: Federal Reserve officially ends quantitative tightening

[⛓️HBEngine @HBEngines]

@elonmuskmel7 5

[Binance @binance]

hold on… something’s shifting.

[Raydium @Raydium]

Q5 is gonna be insane.

[⛓️HBEngine @HBEngines]

I won’t leave the boat until we have completely sunk
That’s not courage from me, that’s nonsense

#ALTSEASON $btc #crypto #eth

[⛓️HBEngine @HBEngines]

Buying more memes: $CULT milady, $MASK
@MiladyCult @thecatwifmask

[⛓️HBEngine @HBEngines]

buying more altcoins now: $APT and $ICP

[Magnate @MagnatesGems]

*NVIDIA 3Q REV. $57.01B, EST. $55.19B

*NVIDIA SEES 4Q REV. $63.70B TO $66.30B, EST. $61.98B

$NVDA

[⛓️HBEngine @HBEngines]

$btc $ETH $SOL #crypto

BTC must stabilize at 95k- 100k before the rotation to altcoins begins. It's not a quick action, it needs time and trust in the BTC price stability.

For altseason, a dominance of 58% is the start, 54% is good, and below that it gets parabolic.

Past cycles have shown that the time from the bottom before the halving to the peak after the halving has always gotten longer. This means this cycle could also be longer, 1200 days could be realistic. That would mean the end for BTC could be March 2026, where we might see the second peak. 155k is possible. Until then, we could be in a rotation to altcoins.

At dominance below 54%, rotation to ETH and SOL. Below 50%, to other smaller altcoins. Below 45%, everywhere possible, including memes... And after that, it will be time for rotation back to BTC for the second peak, and then the bear market....

[⛓️HBEngine @HBEngines]

$BTC #crypto #BTC
The US M2 money supply is set to rise as QT ends and liquidity returns. > Global money supply will follow
More liquidity = bullish for crypto & stocks
A few red candles can’t change the supply equation
MM is washing the market for the next move

[⛓️HBEngine @HBEngines]

$btc $eth
The falling FED balance sheet (down to $6.53T) sucked liquidity out, making alts & stocks go RED this week.
QT tightening hit hard riskoff vibes everywhere.
QT ends Dec 1 and government shutdown is OVER today.
All This means more liquidity can flow back in.

[Coin Bureau @coinbureau]

🚨BREAKING: Trump has SIGNED the bill — the longest shutdown in U.S. history is OVER. 🇺🇸

[⛓️HBEngine @HBEngines]

6/ So, what do we do now? Sell and run? No. If you are in good altcoins with strong TVL, transactions, and chain revenue, hold your coins. If you are in memes on good chains like ETH or SOL, and you bought at the bottoms, hold your good memes too. If you are in hyped coins, cut your risk (sell some), hold $$ , and wait to see what happens. There will be good chances for sure before we go to Valhalla.

[⛓️HBEngine @HBEngines]

1/ $BTC $ETH $SOL #crpyto
To understand the current crypto market situation, you need to look at the future of liquidity. Will we have more liquidity or less? Here are some facts: The FED ends QT on December 1st. That will release more liquidity. The US government shutdown is blocking the flow of liquidity. They will soon find a solution, because it affects not only the markets but also the paychecks for government workers. Those are the two known things. Other catalysts that are not yet clear: an interest rate cut in December. Also, the end of QT will make us think about QE. These are all things about liquidity... And because the crypto market has always depended on liquidity, not just on timing... I think after this correction, there will be a rebound to ATH for BTC, or at least a stabilization of prices. But not necessarily in Q4 2025. The delay in liquidity might only hit the market in Q1 2026

[⛓️HBEngine @HBEngines]

5/
Now, why the cycle is different:
This industry is becoming more institutional, and that's good. but another side is growing as a prep opportunity. Old big whales who own lots of spot have worked hard for years, they built a prep industry next to spot, and now they make big money from it. so as a conclusion:
Crypto is now institutional but not regulated. It's like a baby stuck at the exit during birth for 2 days... lots of pain and crying, but no real birth yet. still, I think MM doesn't want to destroy this industry. He sees he can make more profit later if he keeps it attractive