Green space

NYC, TSLA long since '19, selective investor into disruptive companies. SpaceX mission a much bigger deal for humanity than understood.

[Green space @HCGNYC]

Not remotely how that scenario would work. Love that you highlighted FSD from its earliest stages when it was first in beta and I realize you like to poke fun at silly takes, but merging the two companies at this juncture would not benefit Tesla shareholders aside from Elon in the least.

[Green space @HCGNYC]

@BLKMDL3 Any notable nag? On the .6 version I get the nag to apply slight pressure to the wheel and it is the first V14 version that has done this. I've had a couple of take over the wheel red hands scenarios but not the nag.

[Green space @HCGNYC]

A model built using general intelligence vs one built using memorization. Tesla can drive on nearly any roads using FSD because it understands driving and road rules...in most cases better than the human supervisor does. Models reliant upon HD mapping and Lidar/Radar are not universal solutions. Drop a Waymo in a city that hasn't been pre mapped and will it operate? Drop a Tesla in that same city, push Full Self Driving and away it goes.

[Green space @HCGNYC]

The speed variation is dialed in at this point. If there are known areas with speed traps or radar monitoring the. don't set the profile to hurry or mad max. People will find reasons to complain about anything. Every other car that isn't a Tesla requires a driver to drive....period....end of story. If you own or lease a Tesla you can ride stress free while the software does all the work for you.

[Green space @HCGNYC]

@Tesla_AI I can report that V14.3.6 learned to park in a driveway that wasn't on the GPS after a few takeovers for parking. The house is located on a corner and the GPS for the address takes you to the front of the house but not to the driveway. The fact that the software was able to learn this after a few tries was 🤯!
Unfortunately this version has also started nagging frequently, asking to grab the wheel and apply pressure. I haven't experienced this type of nag with any other 14 level versions. I'm really wondering why the nag is back?

[Green space @HCGNYC]

$TSLA Tesla is set to scale their Robotaxi business in the next 9 months. Given the rate of production of Cybercabs they will have 1000s of revenue generating Robotaxis roaming around 24/7 in at least a dozen cities by the middle of Q2 '27. Technology is advancing at a pace that gives me great confidence in the trajectory of the scaling process. At a current mkt cap of $1.2T the idea of Robotaxis might be priced into their valuation but the proximity to scaling the business isn't. Any hypothetical model that plugs in COGS and Revs from a Cybercab dominant approach will yield software like margins. Unlike software which has a precarious moat, the Robotaxi business model will have a nearly impenetrable moat. Transportation is a necessary commodity. Tesla will be able to price the cost of transportation at levels that will make competition impossible. A true valuation of Tesla would start to model a Robotaxi business at scale.

[Green space @HCGNYC]

in any 50/50 merger there will be dilution. It's simple Tesla has 3.9B shares outstanding and SPCX has 7.5B shares outstanding so that would mean Tesla shareholders would get appx 2 shares to every one for SpaceX shareholders in a combined entity. Seems fair and perfectly fine except then you have to figure out which entity is going to drive growth over the short term, intermediary and long-term. Tesla would be the most logical driver for short and intermediary term growth. Yet instead of owning 'x' % of TSLA with 3.9B shares outstanding, now you own that same % of the combined entity but with appx 15B shares outstanding. That is not apples to apples and it's why Tesla shareholders are rightfully and thoughtfully questioning the timing and urgency behind a prospective merger. It benefits Elon in the short term...bottom line it doesn't benefit Tesla shareholders. Tesla already licenses Grok and will continue to as Optimus goes into production so as a Tesla shareholder that is a big consideration but not big enough in the short to intermediary term to force a merger within the next 24 months.

[Green space @HCGNYC]

@wholemars what bothers me is that TSLA shorts are making money hand over fist. The biggest a-holes out there are getting rich shorting Tesla stock. Seriously some of the worst people.

[Green space @HCGNYC]

Elon you should check in with Grok. I asked Grok a simple question, what is the safest family car for 4? Grok gave me a list with the Hyundai Santa Fe at the top and other cars without the Model Y. It took my prompting for Grok to revisit what should constitute safety and ultimately after several back and forths agree that for a family of 4 the Model Y is the safest car. Maximally truth seeking yet somehow still biased towards using nonsensical reasoning was quite illuminating and disappointing.

[Green space @HCGNYC]

Safety should not only be the 'driver' for regulatory approval but it should also be what motivates consumers to buy a Tesla over a non Tesla vehicle. If a specific feature provides the driver and the occupants with much safer outcomes then someone would literally be foolish to choose a product with far inferior safety features.

[Green space @HCGNYC]

@robotaxi makes sense, no need to disrupt music or a movie

[Green space @HCGNYC]

Tesla the company is doing a great job. Building frontier technology solutions that will actually make human lives better and safer while ensuring the solution will eventually be a global one is an immensely challenging undertaking. The company is 10x perhaps even more than what it was in Nov '21 and yet the market values it higher back then. So while the company is executing the plan to provide a leading solution for real world AI/Robotics the stock is underperforming. The market value for Tesla has always been largely driven by sentiment. Eventually Tesla will monetize the technology that they are close to perfecting. The FSD subscription revenues will be miniscule compared to the revenues generated by Robotaxis.

[Green space @HCGNYC]

$TSLA investing is as much a measure of how you maintain an even keel as it is any other mental aspect. Believing that Tesla is a company unworthy of investing into or holding as an investment because sentiment has been negative is an emotional decision. Allowing emotions to dictate investment decisions is why most individual investors are better off simply choosing an index fund approach. I can clearly state without any emotional bias that Tesla is 10x the company it was back in Nov 2021, yet back then the market cap for the stock wa higher than it is today. When there is a clear disconnect between what the market perceives as fair value and what a company has under its hood is where opportunity exists. If an investor needs quarterly results to confirm worthiness of investment then the best opportunity has likely already bypassed. Some investors are frustrated because timing hasn't met their expectations or other opportunities would have been better. Yet if you understand returns are rarely linear and exponential growth can happen quickly you also need to adjust your expectations. Quarterly results can guide investors especially when evaluating more mature companies, but with high growth companies focusing on frontier technologies they can also be misleading. Choose carefully and build your own conviction.

[Green space @HCGNYC]

Tesla is a great company, solving the most complex issues, with tremendous life saving implications. Elon is a unique, hyper focused leader that doesn't get deterred by failures. Unless someone is willfully blind to the obvious progress, it is beyond apparent that Tesla has solved for autonomous driving. I'll go a step further and suggest that the model used for FSD in cars will provide other robots such as Optimus superior footing in the real world. All that being said, TSLA the stock has been a laggard. I you own the stock or have diligently built a position during downturns then your current state should be fine. Unfortunately many TSLA shareholders don't fall into this category and they are seeing the pick axe and shovel AI plays perform exceptionally well while TSLA has been underperforming. Just my opinion but ultimately a stock will be valued not merely based on sentiment (+ or -) but on its fundamentals. Cashflows and earnings drive long-term valuations.

[Green space @HCGNYC]

Well said and it's also important as an investor to look at context. The last major disruptive cycle was when access to the Internet was expanded to anyone with a computer and a modem. As the Internet cycle evolved so did the companies that monetized its use cases. AI and Robotics is still in the infancy stages where the companies most benefiting are the pick axe and shovel players (chips, semis, memory, data, etc). The next stage is going to be dominated by the companies which are able to turn AI and Robots into actually useful services which can replace human work. Tesla is the leader in this effort...still work to be done and monetization is barely noticeable, but the train has left the station. The AI cycle will make the Internet cycle look quaint when all is said and done.

[Green space @HCGNYC]

I think the slow rollout is more a function of Tesla always attracting the most negative attention from the MSM. The first accident will be amplified, and the lawyers will bring lawsuits. Tesla wants to avoid that. In reality the Tesla cameras capture fault better than any other car, so in nearly all cases fault can be proven without speculation. Given that I don't think it is a liability issue. It's the perception of an avalanche of negative press.

[Green space @HCGNYC]

Interventions on the current version of FSD are rarely critical ones, mostly navigation or parking. Accidents won't be eliminated until human drivers are no longer behind the wheel and even the. there will be some occasional accidents due to mechanical failures. Tesla is being overly cautious but imo a more aggressive unsupervised adoption would make our roads safer.

[Green space @HCGNYC]

I think a fair critique would be that Tesla has with their current version of FSD a product that makes roads significantly safer. Proven by actual data to be 7x safer than a human driven car. If the goal is to make our roads safer then Tesla shouldn't delay aggressively rolling out Robotaxis until a superhuman version of the software is ready. The current version is already safer than a human. Accidents will unfortunately happen even under the most ideal scenario. We know the mainstream media will exploit any incidents but that won't shutdown their progress, especially with data showing how many fewer accidents result.

[Green space @HCGNYC]

@elonmusk Hopefully transportation is at a fork in the road.