@Idontcaret51856@MarioNawfal Where is there an oil deficit? The US exported 5.2 mbpd in April which dropped to 3.6 mbpd in July. China is sitting on 1.4 billion barrels in its reserves(enough for 1000 days). Japan is sitting on a 200 day supply.
@JSRGN2@Osint613 In 2 to 3 years the strait of hormuz will be irrelevant. Iraq will export via pipeline thru Syria. Kuwait via Saudia Arabia, Saudi pipeline will be expanded by 2 mbpd. UAE pipeline expanded by 2 mpbd and export expansion fron Canada, US Venezuela will be around 4 mbpd.
@Osint613 Someone had the delusion that Iran was going to emerge from all of this as the regional hegemony. Today's Saudia/Turkey/Pakistan agreement indicates that isn't going to happen. Someone will need to be blamed for the miscalculation. Who better then someone already dead?
@Osinttechnical If you want to kill an Octopus first cut off its arms. Hamas, Hezbollah..Houthis next. It is like we are living in a Monty Python movie. Strait of Hormuz is a side show compared to the Suez and Red Sea.
@Osint613 Its not up to Omam, Iran or the US to determine the 'rules' for an internationally recognized waterway. Free passage outside a 3 mile limit is the global rule.
@J_A_Guar@Osinttechnical Feigning weakness invites attack. The easiest way to locate Irans missile launchers is for the Iranians to launch some missiles.
@Bluebonnet61920@Osint613 Its simple math..between 5 and 20 troops per 1000 resudents based on historical wars. The Germans invaded Poland(pop 35M) in 1939 with 2M troops. Iran has a population of 90M.
@Bluebonnet61920@Osint613 You need between 450,000(greeted as liberators) and 1.8 million (greeted as invaders)troops for a ground invasion. It's been wargamed.
@recoveringCA@Osint613 The Foreign Policy failure occurred in 1979. Carter felt a 'man of God' could be trusted and pulled the rug out from under the Shah. To be fair Carter also felt the Soviets could be trusted to stay out of Afghanistan. Peace in our time!
@MJazanovich@Osint613 All you need to attack a tanker is a motorboat ,someone willing to die and an RPG. The Persian Gulf is relatively calm compared to the Atlantic. For all we know the guy that took the shot started rowing 3 days ago.
@wolfsdstny@Osint613 Everytime Iran fires a missile it gives up the location of the launcher. If we have troops at the location of the missile impact then it costs us a patriot. We would prefer Iran fire at empty tin shacks. Costs them a missile and laucher, costs us a tin shack.
@Winterwatch51@Osint613 Insufficiently layered defenses. Early on Patriots were used to counter drones and defend low value targets. Resetting the layering takes time as well as building a consensus as to what is 'low value'.
@wretchardthecat Iran disowned any knowledge on the Eqyptian strike and the Houthi's Red Sea rhetoric has toned down. Egypt's response to threats against their rice bowl may not have been to pressure Washington.
@JohnHyland01@sentdefender During relative calm in every conflict each side probes the other sides defences. Attacking the other sides most heavily defended points is not a path to victory and is generally considered a waste of ammo. Where is the ammo shortage? Irbil, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait,Bahrain,UAE,SA?