HTX Research

📢 HTX Research 本周加密市场前瞻 (11月10 日）： 1. 美国 CPI：12 月加息预期已经明显升温本周二将公布美国 10 月 CPI，是本周最重要的宏观数据。上周 10 月非农新增就业达到 16.5 万，明显高于市场此前约 6.5 万的预期，推动市场对美联储 12 月加息 25 个基点的概率迅速升至约 80%。如果本周 CPI 再次偏强，市场可能进一步强化“高利率维持更久甚至继续加息”的预期，美元和美债收益率都有再次上行的风险。对于 BTC 而言，当前最不利的组合依然是强就业、黏性通胀与更高利率同时出现，因此周二 CPI 很可能决定本周宏观交易方向。BLS 已确认 10 月 CPI 将于 11 月 10 日公布，PPI 则安排在 11 月 13 日。 2. AI 交易能否止住调整：科技股仍是加密风险偏好的核心锚上周 Nasdaq 一度单日下跌 5.5%，市场对 AI 基础设施投入、资本回报率以及中期选举后可能出现的监管收紧明显更加敏感。本周 CoreWeave、Cisco、Applied Materials 等公司将陆续公布财报，市场会继续验证 AI 资本开支是否能够兑现为收入和利润。当前最值得关注的已经不是 AI 投资规模是否继续扩大，而是高负债、高投入的商业模式能否经受高利率环境考验。对加密市场而言，如果科技股能够止跌，BTC 的风险偏好有望同步改善；如果 AI 板块继续去估值，BTC 和高 Beta 山寨资产仍可能被动跟随去风险。 3. BTC ETF 持续流出：机构资金与监管预期同时转弱当前加密市场内部最值得警惕的是 ETF 资金持续撤离。上周美国现货比特币 ETF 净流出约 12.8 亿美元，为 6 月以来最差的一周，并使 2026 年累计资金重新转为净流出；ETH ETF 则已经连续第六周录得净流出。与此同时，中期选举后民主党控制国会，市场开始担忧未来两年美国加密监管可能重新趋严，比特币一度跌至约 7.37 万美元，创两个多月新低。本周真正需要观察的是，BTC 在经历大规模去杠杆后能否止跌，同时 ETF 资金是否重新回流；如果价格反弹但机构资金仍持续撤出，这轮修复的持续性仍然有限。 #HTX #Crypto #BTC

HTX_Research's tweet photo. 📢 HTX Research 本周加密市场前瞻 (11月10 日）：
1. 美国 CPI：12 月加息预期已经明显升温

本周二将公布美国 10 月 CPI，是本周最重要的宏观数据。上周 10 月非农新增就业达到 16.5 万，明显高于市场此前约 6.5 万的预期，推动市场对美联储 12 月加息 25 个基点的概率迅速升至约 80%。如果本周 CPI 再次偏强，市场可能进一步强化“高利率维持更久甚至继续加息”的预期，美元和美债收益率都有再次上行的风险。对于 BTC 而言，当前最不利的组合依然是强就业、黏性通胀与更高利率同时出现，因此周二 CPI 很可能决定本周宏观交易方向。BLS 已确认 10 月 CPI 将于 11 月 10 日公布，PPI 则安排在 11 月 13 日。

2. AI 交易能否止住调整：科技股仍是加密风险偏好的核心锚

上周 Nasdaq 一度单日下跌 5.5%，市场对 AI 基础设施投入、资本回报率以及中期选举后可能出现的监管收紧明显更加敏感。本周 CoreWeave、Cisco、Applied Materials 等公司将陆续公布财报，市场会继续验证 AI 资本开支是否能够兑现为收入和利润。当前最值得关注的已经不是 AI 投资规模是否继续扩大，而是高负债、高投入的商业模式能否经受高利率环境考验。对加密市场而言，如果科技股能够止跌，BTC 的风险偏好有望同步改善；如果 AI 板块继续去估值，BTC 和高 Beta 山寨资产仍可能被动跟随去风险。

3. BTC ETF 持续流出：机构资金与监管预期同时转弱

当前加密市场内部最值得警惕的是 ETF 资金持续撤离。上周美国现货比特币 ETF 净流出约 12.8 亿美元，为 6 月以来最差的一周，并使 2026 年累计资金重新转为净流出；ETH ETF 则已经连续第六周录得净流出。与此同时，中期选举后民主党控制国会，市场开始担忧未来两年美国加密监管可能重新趋严，比特币一度跌至约 7.37 万美元，创两个多月新低。本周真正需要观察的是，BTC 在经历大规模去杠杆后能否止跌，同时 ETF 资金是否重新回流；如果价格反弹但机构资金仍持续撤出，这轮修复的持续性仍然有限。

#HTX #Crypto #BTC

225

HTX Research

@HTX_Research

3 days ago

📢 HTX Research Weekly Crypto Market Forecast (10 Nov): 1. U.S. CPI: December Rate Hike Expectations Rise Sharply The October CPI report on Tuesday will be this week's key macroeconomic event, following stronger-than-expected job growth of 165,000 that pushed December Fed rate hike expectations to around 80%. If inflation remains elevated, markets may price in higher interest rates for longer, potentially driving Treasury yields and the dollar higher. For BTC, the combination of strong employment, persistent inflation, and tighter monetary conditions could intensify selling pressure. 2. AI Trade Under Pressure: Tech Stocks Remain Key to Crypto Sentiment Following last week's sharp Nasdaq selloff, investors are increasingly concerned about AI infrastructure spending, profitability, and high valuations. Upcoming earnings from CoreWeave, Cisco, and Applied Materials will test whether substantial AI investments can translate into sustainable revenue growth. Strong results could stabilize technology stocks and restore crypto risk appetite, while further weakness may trigger additional selling in BTC and high-beta altcoins. 3. BTC ETF Outflows: Institutional Demand and Regulatory Outlook Weaken U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded approximately $1.28 billion in weekly net outflows, their worst performance since June, while ETH ETFs extended their outflow streak to six consecutive weeks. Combined with concerns over tighter crypto regulations following the midterm elections, weakening institutional demand has added pressure on BTC, which briefly fell to $73,700. This week, the key question is whether BTC can stabilize and attract renewed ETF inflows, as any price recovery without institutional support may prove short-lived. #HTX #Crypto #BTC #forecast

HTX_Research's tweet photo. 📢 HTX Research Weekly Crypto Market Forecast (10 Nov):
1. U.S. CPI: December Rate Hike Expectations Rise Sharply

The October CPI report on Tuesday will be this week's key macroeconomic event, following stronger-than-expected job growth of 165,000 that pushed December Fed rate hike expectations to around 80%. If inflation remains elevated, markets may price in higher interest rates for longer, potentially driving Treasury yields and the dollar higher. For BTC, the combination of strong employment, persistent inflation, and tighter monetary conditions could intensify selling pressure.

2. AI Trade Under Pressure: Tech Stocks Remain Key to Crypto Sentiment

Following last week's sharp Nasdaq selloff, investors are increasingly concerned about AI infrastructure spending, profitability, and high valuations. Upcoming earnings from CoreWeave, Cisco, and Applied Materials will test whether substantial AI investments can translate into sustainable revenue growth. Strong results could stabilize technology stocks and restore crypto risk appetite, while further weakness may trigger additional selling in BTC and high-beta altcoins.

3. BTC ETF Outflows: Institutional Demand and Regulatory Outlook Weaken

U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded approximately $1.28 billion in weekly net outflows, their worst performance since June, while ETH ETFs extended their outflow streak to six consecutive weeks. Combined with concerns over tighter crypto regulations following the midterm elections, weakening institutional demand has added pressure on BTC, which briefly fell to $73,700. This week, the key question is whether BTC can stabilize and attract renewed ETF inflows, as any price recovery without institutional support may prove short-lived.

#HTX #Crypto #BTC #forecast

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@HTX_Research

6 days ago

https://t.co/qBG6wET54O

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7 days ago

https://t.co/ZIEkO4BTur

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@HTX_Research

7 days ago

https://t.co/eyCCVwJOGe

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@HTX_Research

8 days ago

https://t.co/X2XTjBYP4K

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@HTX_Research

9 days ago

https://t.co/BgEGNYpzl4

HTX Research

@HTX_Research

10 days ago

https://t.co/DilATHEHiN

HTX Research

@HTX_Research

11 days ago

Market volatility comes and goes, but channeling your inner feline patience keeps your portfolio steady. 🐱💎 Keep Hodling! #Crypto #HODL #HTX

HTX_Research's tweet photo. Market volatility comes and goes, but channeling your inner feline patience keeps your portfolio steady. 🐱💎 Keep Hodling!

#Crypto #HODL #HTX https://t.co/wT7FTgVdCh

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HTX Research

@HTX_Research

11 days ago

📢 HTX Research's Weekly Crypto Market Forecast: 1. U.S. Midterm Elections: Policy Expectations Could Drive Market Volatility Tuesday’s midterm elections will determine control of Congress and shape the Trump administration’s fiscal, trade, AI, and crypto regulatory agenda over the next two years. With record political spending from the crypto industry, the results could influence market structure legislation, stablecoin regulation, and SEC policies. Markets will initially focus on reduced political uncertainty, followed by the longer-term implications for crypto adoption and regulation. 2. October Nonfarm Payrolls: A Key Test for December Rate Hike Expectations Friday’s jobs report will be a crucial indicator for the Fed’s December policy decision, with markets currently pricing in around a 70% probability of another rate hike. Following September’s weak job growth of just 29,000 and elevated PCE inflation of 3.6%, stronger employment data could push Treasury yields and the dollar higher, pressuring BTC. Further labor market weakness, however, could ease rate hike expectations and improve liquidity conditions for crypto. 3. Apple & AMD Earnings: A Key Confidence Test for the AI Trade Apple and AMD earnings will provide an important test of technology sector growth and AI investment returns following the recent market correction. Investors will focus on Apple’s iPhone demand and AI strategy, alongside AMD’s AI chip and data center performance. Strong results could restore confidence in the AI trade and support risk-on sentiment, while disappointing earnings may trigger further tech stock weakness and spill over into BTC and high-beta crypto assets. #Crypto #Bitcoin #WeeklyForecast

HTX_Research's tweet photo. 📢 HTX Research's Weekly Crypto Market Forecast:
1. U.S. Midterm Elections: Policy Expectations Could Drive Market Volatility

Tuesday’s midterm elections will determine control of Congress and shape the Trump administration’s fiscal, trade, AI, and crypto regulatory agenda over the next two years. With record political spending from the crypto industry, the results could influence market structure legislation, stablecoin regulation, and SEC policies. Markets will initially focus on reduced political uncertainty, followed by the longer-term implications for crypto adoption and regulation.

2. October Nonfarm Payrolls: A Key Test for December Rate Hike Expectations

Friday’s jobs report will be a crucial indicator for the Fed’s December policy decision, with markets currently pricing in around a 70% probability of another rate hike. Following September’s weak job growth of just 29,000 and elevated PCE inflation of 3.6%, stronger employment data could push Treasury yields and the dollar higher, pressuring BTC. Further labor market weakness, however, could ease rate hike expectations and improve liquidity conditions for crypto.

3. Apple & AMD Earnings: A Key Confidence Test for the AI Trade

Apple and AMD earnings will provide an important test of technology sector growth and AI investment returns following the recent market correction. Investors will focus on Apple’s iPhone demand and AI strategy, alongside AMD’s AI chip and data center performance. Strong results could restore confidence in the AI trade and support risk-on sentiment, while disappointing earnings may trigger further tech stock weakness and spill over into BTC and high-beta crypto assets.

#Crypto #Bitcoin #WeeklyForecast

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HTX Research

@HTX_Research

11 days ago

📢 HTX Research 本周加密市场前瞻： 1. 美国中期选举：政策预期可能成为本周最大波动源美国将于本周二举行中期选举，众议院全部 435 个席位以及约三分之一参议院席位将面临改选。选举结果将直接决定特朗普政府未来两年的财政、关税、AI、金融监管以及加密政策推进空间，尤其值得关注国会控制权是否发生变化。加密行业本轮选举投入规模创下新高，已经成为重要政治资金力量之一，因此选举结果也可能影响后续市场结构法案、稳定币监管以及 SEC 政策推进节奏。短期来看，市场首先交易的是政策不确定性下降；中期则要观察新一届国会是否进一步打开加密行业的制度空间。 2. 10 月非农：决定 12 月加息预期能否继续升温美国 10 月非农就业报告将在本周五公布。9 月新增就业仅 2.9 万人，失业率为 4.2%，显示就业市场已经明显降温，但与此同时，9 月 PCE 通胀重新升至 3.6%，经济增长依然偏强，使市场继续押注美联储 12 月加息。目前市场对 12 月加息的定价已经升至约七成，因此本周非农将成为验证这一预期的关键数据。对 BTC 而言，如果就业重新明显走强，美元和美债收益率可能再次上行；如果就业继续降温，则有望缓解近期持续收紧的宏观流动性压力。 3. 苹果与 AMD 财报：AI 交易进入新一轮信心测试本周科技股同样进入关键窗口，苹果将在本周一公布财报，AMD 则确认于本周二美股盘后公布三季度业绩。市场预计苹果季度营收约 1130 亿美元，投资者将重点关注新 CEO 上任后的首次业绩指引、iPhone 需求以及 AI 战略；AMD 则需要回答 AI 芯片和数据中心业务能否继续支撑高增长预期。在此前科技股经历明显调整、市场开始质疑巨额 AI 资本开支回报率的背景下，这两份财报的意义已经超过公司本身。如果苹果和 AMD 能够稳住市场信心，有利于 Risk-on 情绪重新回升；反之，科技股进一步去估值，也很可能同步压制 BTC 和高 Beta 加密资产。 #Crypto #Bitcoin