HXL Partners

Sharing global FX, investments, private banking, offshore structures and second passport views. Opinions are my own. Tweets ≠ advice.

[HXL Partners @HXL_Partners]

Welcome Back~
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Stay safe and be healthy!

[HXL Partners @HXL_Partners]

We expect the $AUD to remain under downward pressure as #RBA is expected to cut rates by a further 0.5% by mid-2020 with 0.25% expected in February. Short-term risk towards #AUDUSD 0.673 and 0.69 within 12-months. #FX #forex #fxtrading https://t.co/r1knOg0Hnn

[HXL Partners @HXL_Partners]

Until a phase one trade deal is reached along with an agreed timetable of #tariff rollbacks, we expect #yuan to trade within a narrow range between 7.0 and 7.3 against $USD. A weaker yuan makes #China's exports cheaper and help offset impact of tariffs. #fx #forex #tradewars

[HXL Partners @HXL_Partners]

Given history of setbacks after previous #trade agreements, continued weakness in #China’s #economy as expect #GDP slowing to 5.5% in 2020, and probability #PBOC loosening monetary policy to weaken currency, we expect #yuan weakening to 7.4 within next 3-to-6 months. #fx #forex

[HXL Partners @HXL_Partners]

Although China's offshore #yuan strengthen past 7 per $USD on expectation phase one of #trade deal will be signed soon, yuan remains vulnerable to further weakness as discussions between U.S. and #China drag on with #Trump stating he hadn't agreed to #tariff rollbacks #fx #forex

[HXL Partners @HXL_Partners]

#Tariff situation is hurting #US retailers in particular as they struggle to absorb additional costs. Once absorbed, #GDP should pick up H2 2020 but any upside to phase one of #trade deal will likely be limited with consumers contributing less to #economic growth. #HXL #economy

[HXL Partners @HXL_Partners]

As expected, #Fed cut rates by 0.25%. Although #Fed indicated its on hold, we see #labour market losing momentum, #payrolls coming off and forecast #US #economic growth to weaken in H12020 which may lead to additional rate cuts. #HXL #GDP #economy

[HXL Partners @HXL_Partners]

#Palladium down 1.75% but still more expensive than #gold. $XPD used mainly in emissions-reducing catalysts for cars. We expect demand to outstrip supply but expect prices to pull-back given current weakness in #China car sales. https://t.co/OMTZ3CzuyL
#commodities #METL #Metals

[HXL Partners @HXL_Partners]

Although #GBPUSD above $1.30 and undervalued we advise against taking position in $GBP, #gilts & #UK #equities given continued market volatility caused by #Brexit uncertainty. Will not subside until actual outcome. Read our latest #research note https://t.co/Bl5Xco8Jmu
#fx #forex

[HXL Partners @HXL_Partners]

#GBPUSD back above $1.30 and above 200 day moving average for the first time since May (not #TheresaMay). We still see $GBP downside risk over the next three months and prefer hedging #GBP given #Brexit uncertainty. Current strength short-lived
#fx #forex #fxtrading #forextrading

[HXL Partners @HXL_Partners]

#Brazil’s $BRL slumps 1.6% during President #Bolsonaro speech at #WEF19 #Davos as he failed to detail plans to grow economy, reduce deficit and implement tax & social reforms frustrating markets. If govt implements reforms, we still believe #real strengthen this year.
#fx #forex

[HXL Partners @HXL_Partners]

Since 'flash crash' #Turkey's #lira has paired losses following further falls in inflation for 2nd month running in December leading to speculation that central bank will cut rates. We continue to see long-term weakening trend for $USDTRY.
#fx #forex #fxtrading #USDTRY #TRYUSD

[HXL Partners @HXL_Partners]

#Turkey's #lira has started 2019 on grim note with $TRY at the centre of 'flash crash'. #USDTRY tumbled as much as 7% and 9.2% against #Yen as investors pile into safe haven assets following weaker PMI data from #China and #Europe and #Apple's revenue warning.
#fx #forex

[HXL Partners @HXL_Partners]

#FX markets have recovered since 'flash crash' but are still volatile with risk-off sentiment still the underlying theme with direction of global economy and issues relating to both US and #China still present.
#FOREX #fxtrading #forextrading #JPY #CHF #EUR #NZD #CAD #GBP #AUD

[HXL Partners @HXL_Partners]

Although #yen pared early gains, $JPY remains strong on its safe haven status with direction of global economy & issues relating to U.S. & #China still present. We forecast $USDJPY strengthening and our #USDJPY forecasts are 111, 108 & 106 over next 3, 6, 12months.
#fx #forex

[HXL Partners @HXL_Partners]

In case you missed it; $USDJPY tumbles before recovering triggered by a revenue warning from #Apple preceded by weaker #PMI data from #China and #Europe. At one point, #yen was 4.4% stronger against the $USD.
#fx #forex #fxtrading #forextrading

[HXL Partners @HXL_Partners]

FX markets have recovered since the 'flash crash' but are still volatile with risk-off sentiment still the underlying theme with the direction of the global economy and issues relating to both the U.S. and #China still present.
#fx #forex #fxtrading #forextrading #Japan #Apple

[HXL Partners @HXL_Partners]

4. Risk-off sentiment is still underlying theme with direction of global economy & issues relating to both U.S. and China still present. #fx #forex #fxtrading #forextrading #G10FX #Swissie #Euro #Pound #SwissFranc #USD #JPY #EUR #CHF #GBP #AUD #TRY #USDJPY #AUDUSD #AUDJPY #Japan

[HXL Partners @HXL_Partners]

1. Overnight ‘flash crash’ prompted by #Apple’s revenue warning and investors shunning risky assets and buying safe haven assets including bonds and the #Japanese #Yen. Markets were already under pressure following weaker #PMI data from #China and #Europe.

[HXL Partners @HXL_Partners]

3. But commodity-based and #EmergingMarkets #currencies dropped sharply with $AUDJPY, $TRYJPY and $NZDJPY suffering the most. While ‘flash crash’ was exacerbated by thin liquidity, Japanese markets on holiday and automatic algorithmic trades....